I've read a lot of the posts leading up to this fight, and one thing is clear very few have any real clue about how this fight will play out. You either have PBF fans who simply tell you PBF can't be beat by Shane no matter what. And you have a combination of Floyd haters, and a few Shane fans who don't seem to have any idea how Shane can produce a win they so desperately are praying for. Well I have thought about this fight for a very long time. As far back as 1999, and I believe I know exactly what Shane must do to win this fight come May 1st, 2010. Let me start by saying I completely disagree with PBF fans that say Shane has very little chance to win the fight. Not true.....he can win the fight and has a very solid chance. Should PBF be favored? Yes.....but Shane can win this fight with the skills and talent he currently possesses. Should Shane be aggressive and pressure Floyd (intelligent or otherwise), or should he try to counterpunch and box from the outside? Many of you who believe Castillo won the first encounter with Floyd say Shane's only chance is to pressure like Castillo, and some believe Shane should try and duplicate Judah's early fight success. Both of you are wrong IMO. What Castillo began to do in his fight with PBF is what you do when you are completely outclassed talent and skill wise. Shane isn't outclassed in either respect. Shane is taller, longer, and more consistent than Judah but he shouldn't look to stand in one spot looking to counter PBF. He won't be as successful because he isn't a southpaw, and the shoulder roll will be more effective against him than it was against judah. Shane in interviews has been alluding to what I am about to say; Shane will need to mix up his approach to keep PBF off balance and doing a little guessing of his own. This embodies the following: 1.) Keep foot pressure on PBF at all times. This does not mean you come forward into range chasing PBF constantly.....NO NOT AT ALL! By foot pressure, I mean u are coming into range and then out, and then back again. You are utilizing lateral movement.....side to side....changing angles. Shane CANNOT stand in front of PBF, he must use lateral movement and changes in distance to disrupt PBF's timing, rhythm, and ultimately accuracy. If you watch the episode on Ring Magazine they have of Shane, you can see them working on this. That right there makes me sleep 10 times better at night because it is a major key to the fight. 2.) Shane should look to score by using flurries of punches. They won't be hard punches, they won't land all that cleanly, but they take advantage of PBF's tendency to go completely defensive when faced with a combination of punches. Shane can pull this technique off because he is in fact longer than PBF, slightly taller, and has ample hand and foot speed. 3.) Shane should always be looking for opportunities to EXCHANGE with PBF.....Not Necessarily to Counter Him....but EXCHANGE with him! By employing lateral movement of his own, and creating angles off of his own footwork, as opposed to trying to chase and cut off the ring; Shane will go a long way of taking away PBF's pot-shots. He will also make it difficult for PBF to land his jab consistently. 4.) When Shane does choose to counter PBF, his first choice should be a stiff counter jab. This will be the most consistent counterpunch Shane will be able to land. I believe he can land this cleanly, and it will allow for him steal close rounds by snapping PBF's head back when there is very little action in a round, as there is in many rounds of PBF's fights. This is what won Cotto his fight with Shane. Cotto didn't so much outbox Shane, he simply landed a few clean jabs, most of them counters or coming right after an exchange to punctuate it to win a seemingly close round. 5.) What I am about to say many on ESB will probably disagree with.....Shane should look to keep this fight at RANGE as much as possible. Yes that is correct.....at range. Let me explain why. PBF is NOT Margarito......Margarito can be smothered, PBF is one of the best at throwing very short combination's. Shane wants PBF to have to throw LONG punches. This opens PBF up to counters, exchanges, and will keep PBF's punch output low, and his accuracy lower than usual. If Shane allows PBF to get inside of his reach.....PBF will be able to TURN Shane more readily, and he will get off in combination. Shane actually wants PBF throwing one punch at a time. It is Shane that wants to look like the busier fighter, and as PBF gets frustrated and takes more chances, then Shane will look to catch him in exchanges. I cannot stress how important it will be for Shane to keep PBF at the proper distance. The only time Shane should be on the inside is when he is looking to hold, tie up, and wrestle PBF. All of this would be employed as stall tactics to catch his breath, to break up PBF's rhythm, and or kill time after an offensive flurry Shane got the better of. So in summary Shane should look to throw flurries of punches to score points, employ lateral movement to take away the pot shot, and reduce the effectiveness of any jab PBF uses. Shane should always be looking for opportunities to exchange with PBF but when he does counter, he should choose to throw a counter jab. Shane should keep PBF at the end of his punch, and don't let PBF get inside of his reach. As this will make Shane easier to turn and be hit in combination. I don't see a KO in this fight though I believe Shane can get a knockdown to secure a win over PBF. I will be the first to say I am NOT sure that Shane will win, but if he does win, I believe you will see him utilizing the strategy I laid out above. In fact based on interviews and some of the clips of his training I believe you will see some of what I have laid out win, lose or draw. Because from the little I have seen, it is clear to me they plan on using lateral movement AGAINST PBF.
Agree with you that he needs to regularly throw flurries, and stock up as many points as he can. This needs to be done with effective aggression, impressing the judges. Though I'm not too keen on the idea of keeping the fight at range, and attempting to counter Floyd. He needs to be out-fought, not out-thought. The latter is next to impossible against Floyd, whilst the former can win you enough rounds (against a fighter who has the tendency to be too defensive) to maybe steal steal a decision. The artlicle at the front of Eastside is an interesting read. It mentions how Floyd's shoulder role is workable against smaller fighters, but untested against bigger, stronger fighters (with longer reach!) who throw extremely fast, over the top, looping power shots. Now I know Floyd deals with similar sort of shots by ducking, but I get the feeling Shane (with intelligent use of feints) can somehow disguise his shots, and be less predictable
I don't think Shane has the lateral movement to be able to pull this off. All you have to do is watch his last couple of fights, and you can see he fights almost flat-footed these days. Even in the Margarito fight, you can clearly see there was virtually no lateral movement at all. Now fair enough he didn't need to against a human punching bag but I don't think Shane has the footwork to be able to pull it off against Mayweather.
Great analysis. :good Not sure about Mosley keeping it at range though. If he is to employ this tactic, he no doubt has to stick a meaningful jab in Mayweather's face, constantly for 12 rounds. But even then im not sure Mosley can outbox Mayweather. This would be perfect for Mayweather to land potshots on Mosley all night. The reason I say this, Mayweather sees a punch before the punch is thrown, if he sees the sign of a punch coming, he edges out. I've said since this bout was announced, in my opinion, Mosley doesn't have the foot speed, or movement at this stage in his career to close the distance, to get at Mayweather and land meaningful shots. Thats not saying Mosley can't do it, I may be surprised, we may see Mosley employ some of the tactics you have outlined. And I may also be wrong about his foot speed and movement. We will have to see come May 1st. :bbb I'll stick to my first prediction...Mayweather SD or UD.
Oh and this too. Whilst lateral movement is a MUST against Floyd, unfortunately Shane lacks big time in this aspect. Without disrespecting him too much, Shane does have poor footwork.
I agree with a lot of your points, (especially about putting Floyd into a defensive shell and keeping him from getting busy, because those are two major flaws Floyd has and two major ways to lose rounds), but I think giving Floyd space is just asking for trouble, (giving him too much room to slip, move, go in and out) and I think Shane's jab is just begging for Floyd to counter it. Normally a jab is one of the best weapons to use against Floyd, but Shane's is not up to that task. Maybe at the extreme edge of Shane's reach, which is longer than Floyd's it can be a good weapon to distract Floyd or interrupt his rhythm, but I think even then Floyd would turn it into countering opportunities. And as Uncle Rico and Panda have pointed out, Shane's lateral movement is going to be very questionable, especially given that Floyd will be spending as much time as he can moving laterally and in and out himself. Even under the best of circumstances, Shane's footwork is going to be hard pressed to deal with that.
PBF getting doubted once again I see. One of these days people will wake up to his class. "longer than PBF"?, someone's been listening too much to Mosley
That's a great thread man, and I appreciate your post but I can't see Shane pulling it off, simply because I don't think he has the legs. Thats the key for me there, Shane's legs. He wont be able to utilize that strategy beyond 4, 5 rounds as I think he'll slow down in the foot department and will be a prime candidate to be pot-shotted. Mosley fights relatively square on, and for me thats disaster once you are flat footed against someone like Mayweather. If he can angle slightly, he may be able to get his counter jab off but I don't see it. I see him being frustrated and ultimately going back to his more brawling style and losing a wide UD. I think anyone who cannot press Floyd effectively will lose. I don't mean press 100mph and close the distance just like some rampaging bull, but effectively utilise the jab and flurry when in range. If Shane stands in the middle, I think he'll be waiting all day and Floyd will beat him to the punch everytime. I can't see how Shane can win other than a KO. I think anyone who stands in the middle with Floyd loses, and I think after 4 rounds this will be the case. I think Shane might look ok for a few rounds but when the legs go, so does his chances of winning the fight IMO. Anyway, top post.
That is a good method on how to beat Mayweather, but does Shane have it in him is the main question. Thats why Naazim Richardson said its about bringing in the best Shane Mosley, thats enough to beat Mayweather. Mosley has to use lateral movement against Mayweather's shoulder roll, and it will only be effective if he does this at range. Also Mayweather's foot speed, is ahead of Mosley's at the moment, so I dont think foot pressuring would help Mosley against Mayweather.
Shane doesn't have the legs to have the type of lateral movement you're talking about. It might work for a few rounds but no way in hell can he do it for a full 12.
mosley has to keep mayweather in the ropes. mayweather is good at fighting off the ropes but hes even better when hes in the middle of the ring. mosley cant change who is especially at 38. mosley has always been an aggressive fighter and thats what he has to win with. what he has to do is refine his style. he can throw too many wide punches that he is usually accustomed to throwing. he got to throw more straight punches and try to outwork mayweather. mayweather's biggest weakness is his punch output. is mosley can get off first and dictate the pace, he might pull it off.
you make some good points man. it's gonna be a tricky and frustrating night for mosley, that's for sure. if he can fight the smartest fight of his life, he has a chance to win.
