~ The Joan GUZMAN v. Alex ARTHUR ~ PROPER ANALYSIS Thread ~

Good call Decebal. I am just going to re-post my quick analysis of the two, as I thought it was fairly balanced :

Alex Arthur:

Pros:

• Excellent range of shots - especially to the body
• A good, proven dig at Super Featherweight
• Big and strong for the weight...not easily bullied
• Good chin - can take a lot of good shots

Cons:

• Defence can be a let down - concentration slips
• Very slow starter normally
• Liable to get caught up in the moment
• Massive step up in class (Guzman)

Joan Guzman:

Pros:

• Fantastic hand speed
• Excellent defence - keeps out of range well
• Good pedigree - has won some big fights
• Naturally very talented

Cons:

• Taking things lightly here - lack of respect
• Has not carried his 'little tyson' power up at all
• I've seen his concentration dip - could be costly
• Smaller man - reach and size

Ok, so i'm not going into a massive amount of depth above, but thats the key points that stick out for me. A lot of people have joined the bandwagon of 'Guzman will win because...er...he's Guzman don't you know'...a tad daft.

Now don't get me wrong, Guzman is strong favourite, and rightly so. For Alex to win it would take a lot of things to fall nicely into place, but that isn't an impossible shot. Arthur has looked pretty average in his last few fights (mainly I think due to frustration at not getting a shot like this).

If he can't get himself up and pumping for this fight, he never will. And similarly, if he does, and Guzman turns up without full commitment, well...the odds could be upset without a doubt.

Please feel free to add or subtract from that...it is all about opinions!

 

Ok here goes then.

I'll start with AAA.

PROS: He's a scot, so he's a tough wee *******

CONS: Slow as ****, average power, poor upper body movement, thinks he's better than he is.




Next up Joan.

PROS: He's fast, good movement, good power when he sits down on his punch, a good thinker.

CONS: He's got a burds name


Before anyone jumps on my back for giving AAA stick, I'm scottish! but it doesnt mean hes feckin superman, actually I've never liked the guy, wasnt at all upset when Gomez burst his bubble a while back. Sorry fellow scots, but the truth is out there

 

I agree with this post :good I think Arthur will be stopped also in the late rounds due to cuts not a knockout.

 

Jeez someone who agrees with me:good wonders will never cease eh:smoke
Cheers man

 

Feckin hell, you ask for reply and when I put a serious reply on, you have a strop:nut Make your mind up Decibel! My bits about AAA are exactly what I think, no ****in about:thumbsup

 

I'm looking forward to this fight. The last time we had such a brilliant guy coming over to fight one of ours, it was Tszyu.

I can't think of any way that Arthur can win, Guzman will outbox him from the start and at some point that becomes a knockout, through clean shots. From where I'm standing there's not a huge amount of analysis neccessary. Guzman is very, very good. Arthur is maybe good.

 

Guzman is superb. Its gonna be embarrasing for Arthur.

 

For Arthur to win, I think he really needs to follow the tactic of Hatton v Mayweather (well, what Hatton should have done...or been allowed to do). Guzman is crazy fast, so back him up and close down the space. Up close, I am confident of Arthurs bodyshots hurting anyone...but he needs to work to get the chance to do that. But he is the bigger, and probably stronger guy.

It is a lot easier said than done, and my god the odds are against it...but if he can do that, it is his best chance. If not, Guzman holds the odds in almost all the other departments.

I am also glad Arthur is back with Wayne McCulloch to train...think he is a good trainer to have in your corner for this fight.

 

What is the to analyze?

Guzman is better in everyway. Every physical attribute you can name. Every mental attribute and is more skilled.

The worst case scenario for Guzman is he hasn't trained and has to win by UD 12-0.

 

Good questions. I think he has good stamina, but not endless. I think it will depend on how much bigger he is than Guzman that will come into play here too. If he can back up Guzman relatively easily, then that might lessen the stamina demands.

As for movement, I think Arthur struggles a bit. He has a habbit of relapsing into being quite static at times. I wouldn't say he is slow though. Nothing compared to Guzman in that sense, but no slouch. And he certainly has good precision given the chance (once again, easier said than done).

Even for this to go Arthurs way, it is going to be a massive strain on him I think. In saying that, I don't see it being a cakewalk for Guzman at any time either...being bullied and leaned on by a bigger guy for a prolonged period of time is going to drain him big time.

God forbid people start getting bitchy about what i've said above...it is how I think it HAS to go for Arthur to win...not saying it will.