The Last Stand Of Dr. Steelhammer: Will AJ's Great Leap Forward Be A Bridge Too Far?

While I've made it no secret that I'm not the biggest fan of Anthony Joshua, that being said, I'm going to do my absolute best to be as objective as possible here. This is my fair and balanced assessment of how I think Wladimir Klitschko vs. Anthony Joshua may play out. I'll add one caveat, this is barring Wladimir coming to the ring an absolute shell of what he once was, a completely shot fighter whose reflexes and power have left him, if Wlad shows up that kind of shot, then AJ in all likelihood will steamroll Dr. Steelhammer. But this is what I see as the most likely scenario and outcome if anything close to the old Klitschko shows up and why.

Why No Styles Clash For AJ?
I'll concede AJ has looked like a one man wrecking crew thus far in his career, Hearn keeps stacking 'em up and he keeps knocking 'em down, he rolls over them like a humongous 6'6 bowling ball, but that's to be expected with the level of competition that's been put before him. Who has he faced that's really worth a damn? His first 10 opponents were by the numbers tin cans brought in as sacrificial lambs with a grand total of 92 losses between them. He did what he was supposed to do and massacred them, proving he has around Adrian Granat level power. Then he took a slight step up in class in his next few matches from tin cans to low level journeymen, most looking to earn a quick paycheck with minimal punishment like Zumbano Love, Johnson and Gavern and an obviously chinny looking prospect in Cornish. He took them all out with relative ease using his patented pounce and flurry technique, because it had worked very well in his previous 10 matches.

Now ask yourself what style did any of his first 14 opponents bring to the table that would adequately prepare him for someone with a problematic style in the future? What has been learned? Absolutely nothing was gained from that bunch other than 14 successive flashy flurry, fighter stunned followed by British Stoppage victories to wow the masses, and convince them they were all looking at the second coming of Mike Tyson. Its the quintessential building of a KO artist prospect, its been done before countless times, AJ's following the same pattern.

Then came the slight road bump...

He ran into Dillian Whyte, who had a slightly better chin than all of his previous victims, and AJ thinking he could easily dispose of him like all the rest, rushed in like a fool and ate a massive left hook, that left... left him in all kinds of trouble for about 30 seconds, he was pretty much out on his feet, and if Whyte's arm hadn't blown out, or if Whyte was a more accurate puncher, who knows what could have transpired. This much I can tell you, a more skilled operator wouldn't have let that opportunity pass them by. AJ intelligently decided to get behind his jab to keep Whyte at bay after nearly coming unstuck in the 2nd, thankfully for him he saved himself from an early hiccup, because when push came to shove and he had to rely on his skillset, he's a little more skilled than a rudimentary one armed caveman in Whyte.

As a postscript to that match, Whyte's power is all but nonexistent in recent performances (which adds yet another question mark to AJ's chin) and skill wise he went life and death with a shot Chisora who Haye savagely disposed of in 5, and Tyson 2 Fast Fury dominated from start to finish, so Whyte's, (who is AJ's best win) level has kind of been exposed.

Then the opportunity presented itself for AJ to grab a quick paper title off of a thoroughly unproven Martin, who while decent and a southpaw, he leaves himself way too open and didn't have anything close to an Olympic pedigree, while I like Martin and had my fingers crossed and was rooting for him, its not like I wasn't aware that going with him was a ludicrously massive longshot, but hey, Whyte almost landed that lucky punch. Regardless Martin clearly showed up for a paycheck as well, or at the very least he knew he'd probably lose because he had no answer for AJ's right hand so took the easy way out.

Breazeale most people seem to forget should've already had one loss on his record against Kassi, he was outboxed 6-4 to 7-3 and was gifted a win. After that debacle he was being comprehensively outclassed, dropped and basically dominated by Amir Mansour, the same Mansour who lost the first 5 rounds to Washington and was very competitive with the bummish Travis Kauffman, Dominic got lucky landed a big shot and Mansour pulled out with a jaw injury. Its an understatement to say that Breazeale lacks skills. All you have to do to beat Breazeale is to be cautious as hell, stay behind a jab, and don't leave yourself open when he gets desperate and starts swinging for the fences when hurt, and you'll do fine. Eric Molina is chinless and relatively unskilled as well, so neither of those matches presented AJ with any genuine riddles he may come in contact with in future matchups.

What do all 4 of his big step ups have in common? They're all basically unskilled brawlers who may have a wrinkle in their game here and there that may present some problems to an unseasoned newbie or old past it tin cans, but that's about it. To any decent to slightly above average fighter, they all have zero defense and are there to be punched in the face and stopped, and Anthony Joshua is a very decent fighter.

One thing is for damn sure, to date, Anthony Joshua has never had to face anything other than a brawler or a featherfisted hack, and why is that? Is Hearn afraid the first time AJ gets in there with a fighter with even a hint of a skillset that AJ might get exposed? Possibly?

Joshua has never faced a skilled boxer puncher, a skilled evasive southpaw, a pressure fighter who knows how to get inside and work the body, a unorthodox swarmer who throws from unique angles, an opponent with an immaculate jab, an explosive ambush style fighter, a combination puncher, a fleet footed fighter, and most importantly he's never had to face an incredibly heavy handed elusive counter puncher who specializes in spoiling his opponents rhythm.

But guess who has, a heavy handed incredibly elusive counter puncher who specializes in spoiling his opponents rhythm has.

 

This Old Dog Doesn't Need New Tricks
After a few early bumps in the road, Wlad has seen it all and beaten almost all who came before him, no stylistic riddle or puzzling style was too problematic for him to decode, in fact he won almost every round of every fight he's had in the last 14 years. And the guys he's beaten have all brought far more intangibles to the table than Anthony Joshua, the truth is Povetkin, Haye, Chagaev, Pulev, Ibragimov, Chambers, Thompson, Jennings, Byrd, Peter and maybe even Brock all have styles that are either equal to or far more complex than Joshua's. There's nothing that Joshua can stylistically present to Wlad, that he hasn't had to deal with before. In fact it wouldn't be a stretch to say that everyone I just mentioned easily go 18-0 through AJ record, and in some cases like with Povetkin and Haye, probably 18-0 18 KO's. Oh and one other guy, Wlad would also go 18-0 18 KO's, and they'd all be seen as pathetic soft touch cherry pick victories.

While most seem to be under the impression that AJ is some kind of brilliant prodigy that's as skilled as Muhammad Ali and Evander Holyfield combined, well... they're sadly mistaken. Just what exactly does he do all that well? He's flat footed, he has little to no head movement, he has no left hook, his jab while not pithy, its far from impressive, he's an okay combination puncher, but one has to open themselves up to a counter to land more than a one two, his speed isn't blistering. He's decent at everything but far from great.

Often times I see posters that imply his skill level has improved greatly since his days as an amateur and that his struggles in the Olympics are a thing of the past. But here's the reality, since turning pro, no one he's been in the ring with are even close to the level of Abdusalamov, Savon, Nistor or Cammerelle, all of whom hold wins or should hold wins over him. Its not that he's graduated to the next level, he hasn't, he's still on the same level, maybe a step or two below, after all, one of his best wins as a pro is a guy who didn't come close to making it to the finals in 2012. His style is more pro friendly, but he hasn't improved nearly as much as people seem to think, he looks great, because we have never actually had to see him be pushed or presented with obstacles, and make no mistake, Wlad will present him with more obstacles than his previous 18 opponents combined.

Let's start with dismissing the fallacy that Wlad is a shot fighter, he's not, don't get your hopes up. He looked spectacular dispatching the overly eager Pulev, yet a mere 6 months and a year later he looked thoroughly average against Jennings and Fury. So here came the nonstop flow of Wlad is shot, he's lost it, Wlad's power is gone, Wlad can't get his shots off, Wlad is scared to pull the trigger, yadda yadda yadda, while none of that could be further from the truth. Wlad didn't get old overnight, he just ran headlong into two bad styles back to back, one that made him look average, and one that made him lose, its a simple as that. Since hooking up with Steward after being KO'd 2 times, and again once after, Wlad has been a safety first fighter, as in he will not go looking for a KO, if it happens it happens, but he will never again get wild and put himself in harm's way, he learned those early lessons well. Jennings knew that, so he came to survive and not to win, and he did everything in the book to make Wlad look bad, shelling up, spoiling, smothering, holding, lateral movement, but he didn't actually throw enough punches to attempt a win. So if someone wants to survive against Wlad like Haye and Jennings, they have a chance, but if you come to win like Pulev, in all likelihood, you won't survive.

Wlad couldn't get his punches off against Fury, in fact he rarely let his hands go, but that had nothing to do with his age or because he's "past it", it was because Fury is a constantly retreating counter puncher who was giving Wlad nothing but lateral movement, and flicking out his incredibly long jab to keep Wlad at bay. Wlad isn't fluid and graceful with the ability to let his hands go while coming forward like Golovkin and Kovalev, he needs to set his feet to let his hands go, and Fury wasn't having any of that was he? Fury controlled the distance and range brilliantly, presenting Wlad with a riddle he hadn't encountered, a slick, fleet footed, fast, awkward, huge 6'9 counter puncher with excellent defense, which AJ is not.

But do you know who else is a slick, fleet footed, fast, awkward, huge 6'6 counter puncher with excellent defense, Wladimir Klitschko. Fury out Wladded Wlad, that is all.

Wlad is almost as defensively sound as Mayweather and Ward, only its far more subtle, think about it, how often do you see people land flush on Wlad? its not very often, not even Fury, he protects that glass chin exceptionally well with his shoulder, he rolls with or blocks almost everything. As far as the body goes, most are unwilling to commit to a body attack out of fear of eating a counter, he also utilizes the grab and hold, then maul and wrestle technique of Ward, while not pretty or nearly as good as Ward's, its still effective as hell, and wears opponents down.

Wlad also controls the distance better than any other HW including Fury, aided immeasurably by his hard piston like jab, most are too terrified of getting nailed flush by it to aggressively attempt to get past it. Add to that one of Wlad most overlooked talents is his astonishingly good parrying skills, he's utilizes almost a Muay Thai like stance and hand play constantly tapping his opponents gloves waiting for them to strike, and when they do, his hands are there and waiting, and he calmly taps them to the side deflecting the shot that usually wizzes past his shoulder, while his opponent ends up eating a flush right cross upside their cranium, he also uses his parrying to split his opponents guard allowing him to get inside with relative ease, he taps the straight right up and over the shoulder, taps the jab to the side and boom right down the middle, his opponents almost never see it coming.

As with all one dimensional power punchers, a skilled fighter can easily negate or flat out neutralize that one advantage, and leave their opponent a sitting duck for everything they throw, and I think we can all agree that Wlad is old hat at this, and is the far more skilled of the two. Like McGregor said, precision beats power, well Wlad is probably more powerful and a hell of a lot more precise and timing beats speed, unfortunately for AJ, Wlad has great timing, and maybe even the edge in speed.

AJ has never had to deal with a harder puncher with immaculate timing, great defense, who's skilled at grappling, parrying with excellent control of distance who has a better straight right than he does, and a horrific left hook, that he is open to that's way better than his. Wlad is chinny, but the trick is to land on that chin, its easier said than done, AJ is chinny, and isn't all that hard to land on for unskilled brawlers, so its not hard to imagine one of the most accurate punchers in recent memory landing on it flush repeatedly.

There's a possibility that not only will Wlad beat AJ by KO, but make it look Pulev like easy, and even if his power and speed have left him, there's always Grabimir, which presents another set of problems for AJ if it goes past 7. Joshua still has a hell of a lot to learn and there's a massive possibility that Hearn has made the biggest mistake of his life here by overestimating Wlad's level of shotness and not fully comprehending why he's looked so poor in recent outings, and may end up being taught a brutal lesson on levels. This isn't Airich or Bakhtov we're talking about here. This is the greatest Heavyweight Champion of the modern era with a skillset fighters far more accomplished on every level than Joshua haven't been able to unlock, so why does he think AJ can?

Either this will be the coming out party of all coming out parties for the young lion, and I may be as wrong as humanly possible, or as I suspect, it will be Wlad's brilliant Last Hurrah and the Old Lion goes out in style, still the King Of The Jungle. While all indications may point in one directions, skills pay the bills, and Wlad by a mile is still the most skilled Heavyweight of the last 15 years. AJ has a hell of a grizzled old mountain to climb here, and I have a feeling that Mount Everest will claim another victim.