The math says YES, the GGG vs Canelo fight was fixed

Discussion in 'World Boxing Forum' started by Mendoza, Sep 19, 2017.

  1. Mendoza

    Mendoza Hrgovic = Next Heavyweight champion of the world. Full Member

    Jun 29, 2007
    It was FIXED. Look at the judges and the promoter ( De La Hoya )who manages Canelo and picks the judges. 118-110 for Canelo? Get out of here...Alalaide Byrd you are a criminal and have done this before. Put in any other judge and we likely have a SD winner and its GGG. More on why later.

    The one judge who called it a draw gave Canelo the 7th round, one of GGG's better rounds and all the final rounds to Canelo, even though he was out-landed in two of the final three rounds! Judges who want a draw can do it by just switching 2 rounds to the wrong guy, which I think what judge Don Trella did. When one boxer lands 10 or more punches in any round that does not have a knockdown and nobody was hurt, the guy landing 10 or more punches should win that round, not on Trella's card.

    But let's look at this from a math perspective.

    GGG out landed Canelo in 10 of the 12 rounds, and he was he aggressor and the harder puncher.

    If you take a tally of all the media people who scored the fight you get this:

    96 = GGG won
    20 = Draw
    08 = Canelo won [includes 2 Golden Boy promoters]

    96/124 = 77% had GGG winning the fight.
    20/124 = 16% had a draw.
    08/124 = 06% had Canelo winning the fight.

    Now let's say you put all 124 scorecards into a hat, what would the odds be of this fight being a draw? Pretty high.

    The odds of a GGG UD are 77% of the cards, and the odds of GGG vs Split Decision are something like 83% of the time.


    #Oscar's judges.
    Last edited: Sep 19, 2017
    Sugar 88, Ivan28, kiwi_boxer and 16 others like this.
  2. tealt

    tealt Member Full Member

    Mar 24, 2017
    If the fight was fixed then Canelo would have received the W. Most of the credible media had a slight decision for GGG. Slight decisions can go the other direction.
  3. KiwiMan

    KiwiMan Boxing Junkie Full Member

    Feb 28, 2016
    Okay, let's do the maths properly. We accept the percentages:

    77.4% GGG
    16.1% Draw
    6.5% Canelo

    Probability of GGG UD = 46.4%
    Probability of GGG MD = 28.9%
    Probability of GGG SD = 11.7%

    Total probability of GGG win = 87.0%

    Probability of Majority Draw = 6.5%
    Probability of Split Draw = 4.9%
    Probability of Unanimous Draw = 0.4%

    Total probability of draw = 11.8%

    Probability of Canelo SD = 1.0%
    Probability of Canelo MD = 0.2%
    Probability of Canelo UD = 0.0%

    Total probability of Canelo win = 1.2%

    So if the judges were selected randomly, one would expect a draw or worse 13% of time.

    This partially shows why usually there will be complaints about the judges in close fights, in 53.6% of cases there is at least one card that does not have Golovkin winning despite 77% of the pool scoring it for him.

    However, the odds that the fight was fixed cannot be derived mathematically as not all the inputs are mathematical.
  4. Ukansodoff

    Ukansodoff Deontay plz stop ducking Joshua. Thank you. Full Member

    Aug 7, 2010
    If the fight was fixed this will of been fixed to be a draw not a Canelo victory. If the fight was fixed then it was fixed by Oscar not Canelo himself. Oscar wants the rematch money. If it was fixed Oscar was certainly not confident in victory for his man so he presumed 1 card gets scored to GGG (cuz he won) and he made sure the other 2 cards went the way they did and its always guna be a draw. Should Canelo surprise him and pull off an honest victory then he wins on 2 cards and Oscar will certainly take that as an unexpected bonus. If it was fixed ofcourse and im not saying it is.

    Stinks like it was fixed though.
    joeyp130 likes this.
  5. lefthandlead

    lefthandlead Boxing Junkie Full Member

    Jan 1, 2010
  6. lencoreastside

    lencoreastside Obsessed with Boxing Full Member

    Dec 27, 2010
    Vegas judges know what side their bread is buttered on as we say here. They know to side with the "house" fighter...the one bringing the molar into Vegas and the casinos etc etc.

    It's not rocket science. It's fairly simple arithmetic. But at least 2 of the judges HAVE to be in on it. One is not enough. Buy off one and the other two can still award the fight to GGG. Even with 2 judges bought off you still risk being made look foolish if the 3rd scores it honestly. Hence the most like scenario is all 3 are corrupt. Rigged scorecards from the start. Almost literally filled out in advance. NSAC, Golden Boy, Oscar and Borenard etc. Etc ...all in on it.
    Mendoza likes this.
  7. Kush

    Kush Obsessed with Boxing Full Member

    Dec 16, 2007

    It was a close fight
  8. Cafe

    Cafe Obsessed with Boxing Full Member

    Sep 2, 2011
    Byrd should be investigated. Not the first time she does this. Either she's mentally ******ed by the way she's judging or there's something else at play. I'm leaning towards the latter.
    OvidsExile and Mendoza like this.
  9. Mendoza

    Mendoza Hrgovic = Next Heavyweight champion of the world. Full Member

    Jun 29, 2007


    You left out data. GGG out landed Canelo in 10 of 12 rounds! In such a fight with no knockdowns the chances of a draw are close to zero. But we had corrupt judges!

    Also, no one earth had it 118-110 Canelo except one of the official judges. To call it correctly those who scored it Draw or Canelo to win where connected to Canelo or fans of his...just look at the names who put their scorecards down.
  10. tealt

    tealt Member Full Member

    Mar 24, 2017
    If all three were on it then the one judge Byrd would not have scored it 118 to 110. She would have filled it out closer to the other two except something like 115 to 113. I don't buy the pre filled scorecard scenario because what happens on rounds where one fighter dominates? They still going to award the prefilled out scorecard?
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  11. JeremyCorbyn

    JeremyCorbyn Active Member Full Member

    Jul 15, 2017
    It's a little bit like people who play poker, when they are 80/20 favourite to win the hand, but they lose, they immediately scream a fix, or the game is rigged, forgetting that the only weird thing would be if they actually won EVERY time they were 80/20 favourite.

    For the record, I think most people in the media don't know how to judge a fight anyway, which makes your starting assumptions problematic, but I like your post. What would be more interesting is if we had a large sample of judges that had scored the fight.
    PhillyPhan69, escudo and KiwiMan like this.
  12. The Long Count

    The Long Count Boxing Junkie Full Member

    Oct 8, 2013
    Kovalev was robbed and now Triple G. Neither guy has a huge market to sell fights, as the talent pool in the sport deepens globally powerful promoters will do whatever it takes to keep their investment valuable in the world's biggest market.
    Let's be clear this sport is business - Canelo has a huge Mexican fanbase and has many years ahead as a star attraction. He loses this fight De La Hoya, Las Vegas etc loses millions of future potential earnings.
    Kovalev (and many Russians/eastern euros) with funny last names just don't sell in America.
    These guys are fighting against a stacked deck.

    Put it this way Kovalev wins Ward 1- there is no Ward 2- loss of huge revenue.
    Triple G wins Canelo- there is no rematch loss of huge revenue.
    But it goes deeper- less coverage on espn, less magazine sales (imagine Kovalev, GGG, Lomochenko 1,2,3 in Rings p4p rankings and on the cover each month) sales would plummet in America.
    It's an industry built on a few recognizable faces with pronouncable names.
    De La Hoya doesn't give a sh*t about hardcore fans on some Internet forum- he's protecting a billion dollar business. It's a shame to the fighters but it's always been this way. In the 1920s fighters of color were often avoided or shafted for prejudice reasons but also because the powerful promoters were fearful they wouldn't sell. People felt that If jack Johnson defended against a fighter of color it would tank ditto for Joe Louis. Today I guarantee you promoters are fearful that a bout on ppv of Kovalev vs Gvodzyk or Beterbiev would tank or Triple G vs Dverechenko etc.

    you need bankable stars
  13. Mendoza

    Mendoza Hrgovic = Next Heavyweight champion of the world. Full Member

    Jun 29, 2007
    Poker is random with face value cards. Losing two hands 80/20 to produce a draw is pretty rare. 5-1 against and 5-1 against again = what? 25-1?

    Boxing cards will always have some bad ones, but when 77% say you won and the next highest say you draw, I bet this correlates very close to a 8-4 type of offical decision.
  14. elmaldito

    elmaldito Obsessed with Boxing Full Member

    Jun 11, 2009
    good post
    Sad when people want something to happen or want somebody to win so bad they see things that dont happen.
    This is why when perception is not reality it holds no validity.
    Mendoza likes this.
  15. TheyDontBoxNoMore7

    TheyDontBoxNoMore7 Boxing Addict booted Full Member

    Nov 2, 2016
    Yeah but he also gave the 3rd round to GGG which was a clear Canelo round. The idea was to have multiple fights from the beginning. You're all slowly starting to catch on.

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