Nothing is impossible but we can surmise the same sort of thing with just about anyone. We’ve had men throughout history who fought at middleweight who ended up wining the heavyweight title or a fraction of it so yes, it can be done.
This post sums up why I think Schmeling is overrated. Got beaten badly by Max Baer, could have been 0-2 against Sharkey and got obliterated in the Louis rematch. He beat alphabet champs Stribling and Uzcudin and hes got some other good wins but no Braddock, Baer, Carnera, Farr, Loughran or Schaaf. His status as the 2nd best fighter of that era is based on 2 wins that were avenged even if the Sharkey one was close. Don't get me wrong Schmeling is still the best HW boxer Europe produced in the first half of the 20th century but this idea he could have beaten anyone who ever lived based on the Louis win is a bit much. I think Schmeling could beat most of the champs in the 1st half of the 20th century outside his era but in the 2nd half it goes the other way.
I'm not sure if the Louis rematch reflects how he does in fantasy matchups though, nor would it take away from how good the Louis that Max fought was. That Louis had just butchered Baer (in Louis' self-proclaimed best performance) and Carnera in two very impressive performances. The largest part of Schmeling being destroyed so early, imo, had to do with how he turned against the ropes, and Louis accidentally shattering his back as a result. The dude took some serious bombs from Max Baer, cleanly, and lasted for 10 rounds. I doubt Louis still finishes Max in the first if Max didn't turn against the ropes.
Even if Schmeling survives as long as he did against Max it doesn't really change the point much unless Schmeling puts up a good fight. I don't think he would if it wasn't that Louis would have gotten him sooner rather than later. The thing is that Louis wasn't used to resistance or a competitive fight in the later rounds while Schmeling was. Whereas in later years Louis would bounce back from knockdowns right away Schmeling took the momentum from Louis and rode it to victory. And I think the fact he was the first one to do that is more circumstance than being on another level than the other HWs at the time.
It seems like Schmeling began getting the better of Louis around the middle rounds, and it wasnt the first time Louis was challenged either. Lee Ramage was a ranked HW that was ahead on many scorecards before Louis overcame adversity and stopped him in the later rounds. Many refer to Ramage as the best defensive heavy of the era, so I don’t think it was the first time Louis was challenged on that type of level.
Are we gonna give a green Joe Louis the same half thought out disclaimer that Tyson gets in today's age, "He never overcame adversity"? He fought men like the previously stated Ramage (You're the man, Melankomas), and bulldozed through men like Baer and Uzcudun that gave Schmeling trouble, but at the same time just isn't good enough to where this win matters for old Max?
I respect Schmeling as a well conditioned, disciplined , very good fighter who had a historic win over a very young and overconfident Louis but it ends there ....
Schmeling was a first-rate prize fighter who would not be an easy night for anyone who wasn’t a peak and enraged Joe Louis with something to prove and a point to make, even if he eventually loses or even gets knocked out.
The word coming down through the years was the Schmeling overtrained for Baer and was “stale” going into the fight.
Schmeling scored a devastating knockdown over Louis in round 4. His dominance of the bout started here after losing the first three rounds.
Schmeling caused a sensation when he came to the states as European heavyweight champion in the late 20’s holding attendance records for his bouts at that time. Aside of being the only fighter to score a win vs a near prime Louis in 1936 in one of boxing histories greatest technical performances Max was either heavyweight champion or a top four heavyweight contender for nine consecutive years. 1929-1937
Schmeling dominated from the 4th through the 6th. Louis made a good comeback and swept the 7th, 8th and 9th but he lost one of these due to low blows. Schmeling regained control in the 10th and 11th and finished the fight in the 12th. It wasn't a pure beat down by Schmeling from the 4th onwards
Baer destroyed some of the biggest men around at the time. Carnera being the obvious one and several 6”8 men I believe.
And ? Doesn't change anything ... the Louis upset was historic, no doubt but he was also decimated in two minutes in a rematch while still a young man and the way he was pulverized by the very average Max Baer put the caps on him to me ....