You got to like JMM in this one. This is a great example of styles and Diaz plays right into JMM's strengths. Throwing a lot of punches will just leave him open to JMM's counters. Diaz doesn't have enough power to impose himself. Diaz is a good fighter and has some nice wins so he's obviously going to give JMM a rough night but JMM is a master in there and he wins an 8-4 type decision in a very good and competitive fight.
I think you are correct, but I suspect the judges will be in favor of Diaz no matter what. If I were Marquez, I would try to set up a TKO or KO to get a split decision! I have seen so many bad judges over the years........