$$$ the official betting on boxing thread $$$

Discussion in 'World Boxing Forum' started by lenin, Oct 24, 2009.


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  1. Grinder

    Grinder Dude, don't call me Dude Full Member

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    IMO betting Haye is a risk. Valuev is slow but can he be hurt by Haye? Unless the odds were totally against Haye, don't take such a bet.

    Where is the fight again?

    "Hey I bet $500 bucks, they can't give a gift decision ilke that?"

    Just my 2 cents.
     
    Grinder, Oct 25, 2009
    Grinder, Oct 25, 2009
    #16
  2. nickfoxx

    nickfoxx On The Nod Full Member

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    in my mind it comes down to how much cotto has left in the tank... and my guess is not much... i could imagine a fight where pac boxes rings around him for the full 12

    i dont LIKE pac in this fight in a betting sense, but i have a strong LEAN toward him so if i can get anywhere close to 2 to 1 i'm all over that like a hobo on a hotdog... on the other hand i really like haye in the valuev fight
     
    nickfoxx, Oct 25, 2009
    nickfoxx, Oct 25, 2009
    #17
  3. Trixie

    Trixie Active Member Full Member

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    Yah, unfortunately though, if you want Pac, then it closer to 1 to 2 :S

    I dunno, man. BOL to you, but I don't think Cotto is done yet. The dude has nothing else going on. All he wants to do is box. He doesn't even have time for a personality.
     
    Trixie, Oct 25, 2009
    Trixie, Oct 25, 2009
    #18
  4. truushot

    truushot Well-Known Member Full Member

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    Back the the original poster, you will occasionally get caught on those -1000's like I did betting Philly last week.

    I don't see Cotto having that much for pacman. You may want to do some kind of straddle bet on that fight.

    I wouldn't put a dime on Haye. Actually I bet small on Valuev. Champ + homefield + size usually is hard to beat. Certainly not a spot I'd be laying odds to take Haye. Its not like Haye is Dirrell quick.
     
    truushot, Oct 25, 2009
    truushot, Oct 25, 2009
    #19
  5. Trixie

    Trixie Active Member Full Member

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    I'm not changing my mind about Cotto. I acknowledge that Pacquiao could easily win the fight, but nothing has happened over the last month or so that has changed my mind. I don't want to turn this thread into a Cotto vs. Pacquiao WHO YA GOT, so I'll leave it there.

    And yeah, I back the don't bet on Haye posters. It's a bad spot for him and a bad price.
     
    Trixie, Oct 25, 2009
    Trixie, Oct 25, 2009
    #20
  6. lenin

    lenin what the **** you say? Full Member

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    Trix. thanks for contributing. But I dont see why betting anything over 5% of your bankroll is extremely risky. I guess when looking at it just from a statistical point then I see what you're saying but I think having knowledge of the sport can allow you to bet much higher ammounts and make a lot more on sure fights like Adamek/Golota and Dawson/Johnson.

    I also had money on Hopkins and Jones(both underdogs) to beat Calzaghe but they were small bets because I knew that while they had a chance to win, its wasnt that great. I also lost good money on taylor/pavlik 1 and now I try to stay away from close odds unless I feel really confident about my pick, I'm kinda going out on a limb by betting on Haye but I think he has what it takes to beat valuev.

    it's important, when betting on boxing, not to get emotionally invested in fighters because it can cloud your judgement. My only current favorite fighter is Floyd Mayweather because I never lost betting on him. I enjoy watching many fighters in the game today but I try not to take side and be as objective as possible when placing bets on them. like in the Haye/Valuev fight, I dislike both guys for different reasons but I think Haye's advantages of skills, speed, and ring generalship are greater than his disadvantages of size, chin and experience at heavyweight level.
     
    lenin, Oct 25, 2009
    lenin, Oct 25, 2009
    #21
  7. lenin

    lenin what the **** you say? Full Member

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    I see similarities in the match up of Haye/Valuev with past fights like Mayweather/Delahoya and Jones/Ruiz. skill beats size. the only difference that I'm worried about is Haye's chin but because of valuevs fighting style and lack of punching power I think Haye can box him and avoid getting hurt.

    and the odds for Haye aren't bad at -200
     
    lenin, Oct 25, 2009
    lenin, Oct 25, 2009
    #22
  8. lenin

    lenin what the **** you say? Full Member

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    Same here, I picked Margo to beat Cotto but I also thought Oscar and Hatton would beat Pac. Cotto hasnt been looking good lately and there are a lot of questions. Pac has proven me wrong in his last 2 fights and he looked great. I think pacs style will work good on cotto, I expect to see something similar to pac/hoya with pac landing combos with speed and moving around the ring the whole time. as much as I dislike Roach I think he's a great strategist and will have pac avoiding getting hit. Cotto's trainer is not at the same level.

    I'm picking Pac to win but I think he also has flaws and wouldnt be surprised if cotto won. I might put some small money on pac but I wouldnt risk putting him in a parlay. actually, maybe I'll tag on some sure win fights to increase possible winnings
     
    lenin, Oct 25, 2009
    lenin, Oct 25, 2009
    #23
  9. Antsu

    Antsu Boxing Junkie Full Member

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    Actually professional/semi professional sport betters also have great knowledge of the sports we bet into. We wouldn’t be able to make living with it, if we wouldn’t have.
    Something like 3% of your betting account is the right ammount for sure bets. If you bet lot more than that you bank roll wount be able to take even a slightest losing streak.(eventually you will get some kind of losing streak, even if you always bet on favorites and know your sport)
     
    Antsu, Oct 26, 2009
    Antsu, Oct 26, 2009
    #24
  10. lenin

    lenin what the **** you say? Full Member

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    I'm sorry but I just don't agree with betting only 3% because of risk aversion.

    how about these 2 hypothetical scenarios:

    Plays A starts out with $100 and makes 5 bets
    #1 bets $3 at even odds, wins. bankroll at $103
    #2 bets $3 at even odds, wins. bankroll at $106
    #3 bets $3 at even odds, wins. bankroll at $109
    #4 bets $3 at even odds, wins. bankroll at $112
    #5 bets $3 at even odds, Losses. bankroll at $109

    Play B also starts out with $100 and makes the same bets but with a higher % of bankroll

    #1 bets $20 at even odds, wins. bankroll at $120
    #2 bets $20 at even odds, wins. bankroll at $140
    #3 bets $20 at even odds, wins. bankroll at $160
    #4 bets $20 at even odds, wins. bankroll at $180
    #5 bets $20 at even odds, wins. bankroll at $160

    do you see whats going on here? they both made the same bets but with different amount of money. Player A only bet around 3% of his bankroll and after 5 bets made only $9. Player B bet around 20% of his bankroll and made $60, that's 6.6 times more then what player A made.

    Now I understand that here 4 of the 5 bets were wins and if 4 of the 5 were losses then player B would be ****ed. but given my knowledge of the sport, the nature of the fights I bet on, and my track record I'd say that an 80%(4 out of 5) winning rate is a reasonable expectation.
     
    lenin, Oct 26, 2009
    lenin, Oct 26, 2009
    #25
  11. Broxi

    Broxi Stand With Ukraine Full Member

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    I might have a punt on Sam Sexton to beat Martin Rogan again at 5/2, I like Rogan but those are good odds based on the last fight.

    Miguel Cotto also looks pretty good at 13/8 on Wm Hill.
     
    Broxi, Oct 26, 2009
    Broxi, Oct 26, 2009
    #26
  12. RichT

    RichT Well-Known Member Full Member

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    The difference here is that these guys saying they would only bet up to 5% of their bank roll are professionals. That's not to say they have a better strategy for winning money than you but that they have a more invested long term approach for winning money. If you're a pro you simply can't afford to lose your stake. It's their life line. Kind of like me or you betting with our houses.

    If you bet for fun and at relatively low stakes then it would be boring (and not all that profitable) only betting up to 5% of your bank role. In all probability if you lose your entire pot, you fill it back up again!
     
    RichT, Oct 26, 2009
    RichT, Oct 26, 2009
    #27
  13. RichT

    RichT Well-Known Member Full Member

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    What was your usual approach Trixie? Were you always on for single bets? Straight results, handicap results or what?
     
    RichT, Oct 26, 2009
    RichT, Oct 26, 2009
    #28
  14. Antsu

    Antsu Boxing Junkie Full Member

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    I hear you. I guess we are just looking it in different perspectives.

    When you make your living with betting, you can’t afford to lose entire/majority of your bankroll in couple of bad bets/tough lucks.
     
    Antsu, Oct 26, 2009
    Antsu, Oct 26, 2009
    #29
  15. lenin

    lenin what the **** you say? Full Member

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    anyone doing any betting tonight? Joseph Agbeko is at -260 but i've never seen perez so i dont know
     
    lenin, Oct 31, 2009
    lenin, Oct 31, 2009
    #30
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