$$$ the official betting on boxing thread $$$

Really risky and probably not worth the 1.5 x win.

 

you must feel screwed then.

 

ward is taking it.

 

I wouldn't bet on kessler. Ward beats him comfortably.

 

then you better bet on ward my man. I'm gonna drop a tenner on the draw for Kessler vs Ward 25/1 and 75$ Manny on points 7/2


BTW, Ward is 6/1 to win the super 6. Dirrell is 25/1

 

lenin - this is an incorrect way of looking at it. How many fights do you bet on that are even odds? I would expect, none. I just had a quick glance for the purpose of this reply, at the next 10 bouts that b365 is taking bets on and none of them are even close to even odds. Valuev/Haye is probably the closest but even then...

The reason, I presume, that you are hitting at 80% is because you are betting on favorites. This is all conjecture on my part of course, but it would make sense because there aren't that many upsets in boxing. [edit: and I can see so far in this thread you mention you have bets on Pac, Kessler, RJJ, Froch, Dawson AA and the Yankees]

I will go out on a limb and say that you are not betting on results at EVENS and winning 80% of the time because the simple fact would be that this would make you the most successful sports gambler of all time. This is no exaggeration. Pros strive to hit 55~60%. If they hit 60+% they are cumming there and then.

These hypothetical "even odds" scenarios don't exist in boxing. They exist in other sports, such as NBA, since the spread facilitates this, but not here.

So since you are betting on favorites, the returns that you are yielding are relatively small. So in actual fact, THIS is what is happening:

Player B starts out with $100 and makes the same bets but with a higher % of bankroll

#1 bets $20 at 2/7, wins. bankroll at $105.7
#2 bets $20 at 1/4, wins. bankroll at $110.7
#3 bets $20 at 2/7, wins. bankroll at $116.4
#4 bets $20 at 1/5, wins. bankroll at $120.7
#5 bets $20 at 2/5, loses. bankroll at $100.7

See?

One upset and because of the prohibitive prices you have to pay to see some kind of return, and all of your work beforehand is wiped out.

Sorry if I come off as an *******, but I did this for a long time and I know what I'm talking about. I'm correct here and I'm just trying to pass my knowledge on.

HOWEVER, disclaimer is that this is if you're doing this for a living, like someone else mentioned. You don't have the leeway to sustain a huge loss. If it's just for fun and you're doing well, then I guess do what you do. But my reasoning and math is sound, I promise.

 

Also, I don't think that betting on boxing is a good way to make money long-term anyway. Very rarely do you find a bout where the guy you think is gonna win will have good value. I don't like to bet on anything/anyone at -150 or worse. So people like Dawson, RJJ, AA over Taylor, etc -- it just doesn't represent a good investment in my opinion. If you want to win a legitimate amount of money you have to put up a LOT of cash because the odds are prohibitive. Imagine your fighter just doesn't happen to turn up that night. You are then ****ed.

The best opportunity was probably Pavlik-Williams before it was cancelled, as THAT was an almost EVENS scenario, I think. The Cotto/Pac provides a good opportunity for ME, as I think Cotto will be a comfortable winner, but like I said, these spots don't come around all that often. In other sports you can often see the upsets coming, for example the Pistons beating the Magic yesterday. But in boxing not so much. Not many saw SSM over Margarito, etc.

 

For this saturday I've got:

David Haye -180
also I've got the Under 10.5 (+130)

Chad Dawson -450
also the Over 11.5 (-350)

 

50 on Haye
20 on the under
and
100 on Dawson and the over.