$$$ the official betting on boxing thread $$$

Discussion in 'World Boxing Forum' started by lenin, Oct 24, 2009.


Page 4 of 7
  1. Antsu

    Antsu Boxing Junkie Full Member

    11,144
    367
    Mar 5, 2006
    99% of sports bettors are betting too much. Think not? Think again.
    Would you "bet" 25% of your entire account on a single stock that had a 40% chance of going to $0 tomorrow? Of course not. Then why are you willing to risk 20%+ of your bankroll on a single match? It's easy to risk too much without knowing it.



    A Simple Proposition - Would you take it?
    If I offered you a 10% advantage in a game of chance (55% for you vs. 45%) for 500 bets, would you take that bet? Of course you would. Over the long haul (500 bets), the law of large numbers dictates that you would end up very close to 55% winners (275 winners vs. 225 losers). If we were betting $100 per bet, you'd be up about $5,000 in the end. Easy money.



    Now let's say that I had one constraint. I told you you could start with no more than $500 (your bankroll) and if you ran out of money, you couldn't re-load. In essence, I was forcing you to bet 20% of your bankroll on each bet. Would you still take it? Think you could still take me for $5,000?
    You had better not! You are virtually guaranteed to go bankrupt in this situation. Over the long haul, you will come close to 55% winners - it's a mathematical certainty. But, over the short term, you are guaranteed nothing.



    Strange streaks will happen. They always do. Over 500 bets, you could easily go 5 or 10 bets in a row (or even more) without winning. You could go 2-18 during a 500 bet session. If I forced you to bet 20% of your bankroll, you'd be crazy to do it because I would take your money like taking candy from a baby.



    Yet, in sports betting, you are taking the equivalent of taking this bet!
    Almost every sports bettor bets too much per game relative to the size of their bankroll and that is also the mistake you are making.

    People don't think twice about laying half of their entire remaining bankroll on couple of matches. The conclusion is this...


    You run out of money before you have a chance to let the laws of large numbers work for you. They are banking on your lack of discipline. That's the main reason (not bad picking) that most sports bettors lose and why The House laughs to the bank.
     
    Antsu, Nov 5, 2009
    Antsu, Nov 5, 2009
    #46
  2. tojikiston

    tojikiston Contender Full Member

    1,179
    1
    Aug 3, 2009
    Alright!
    Just went to sportsbetting.com and opened an account! (first time evah! woo-hoo!)
    Didn't know: they had 110% sign-up bonus (up to $350!!), so my $30 deposit magically became $63 (damn, if I read about bonus before depositing, I'd deposit $350 to get the max bonus, but I guess it's too late now!)

    Then, immediately bet on this weekends fights!!!
    Parlay:
    Russian KingKong +145
    and
    Glen Johnson +325
     
    tojikiston, Nov 5, 2009
    tojikiston, Nov 5, 2009
    #47
  3. lenin

    lenin what the **** you say? Full Member

    2,531
    0
    Jan 20, 2007
    good post Antsu, I guess i'm just pushing my luck but i havent got burnt yet. the thing is I only started out with $10 so it would take me years to build up a respectable bankroll betting under 5%. I think i'll just keep betting around $20 range, if i keep winning then my bankroll will grow and that $20 bet will be be a smaller % of bankroll.

    but i still think that there are fights like dawson/johnson, klitschko/arreola, mayweather/marquez that you can bet up to 50% of bankroll because they're sure wins.
     
    lenin, Nov 5, 2009
    lenin, Nov 5, 2009
    #48
  4. lenin

    lenin what the **** you say? Full Member

    2,531
    0
    Jan 20, 2007
    tojikiston, how much did you put down on that parlay? did you think these guys are gonna win before you opened the account or where you tempted by the possible pay out?

    either way I think both valuev and johnson will lose but if you really believe that they have a shot of winning then you should have placed single bets instead of doing a parlay. if you placed even single bets on both guys, you'd still be on top if one of them lost. the chances of both of them winning is very unlikely.
     
    lenin, Nov 5, 2009
    lenin, Nov 5, 2009
    #49
  5. lenin

    lenin what the **** you say? Full Member

    2,531
    0
    Jan 20, 2007

    i'll admit, valuev/haye is pretty close and i kinda regret betting on him. i still think Haye is gonna pull it off tho.
    I dont see johnson winning at all. johnson is getting older and Dawson wont make the same mistakes he did in the first fight. dawson has a lot more to lose so I think he'll be the one more motivated
     
    lenin, Nov 5, 2009
    lenin, Nov 5, 2009
    #50
  6. aj415

    aj415 Boxing Addict Full Member

    4,606
    6
    Aug 15, 2006
    What do you work for Gamblers association of america?

    Relax already

    *edit*

    Though I am followng this thread, I am not betting to the fickle nature of boxing ...


    I've got my ass kicked by robberies and BS decisions enough to say, ENOUGH!

    Good luck though boys.
     
    aj415, Nov 5, 2009
    aj415, Nov 5, 2009
    #51
  7. tojikiston

    tojikiston Contender Full Member

    1,179
    1
    Aug 3, 2009
    I bet $50 knowing (mostly wishing) these two will pull it off! :hi:
    Motorhead said it right: Glen has big bang left in the tank, otherwise he'd be retired by now! :good
    And KingKong needs to connect with only one shot, that's it! I think he got pretty pissed/motivated to get it done!! :bbb (in the worst case: nazis will screw David Hype, just like they cheated 96 yrs old Holy!!!:yep)
    So, let's gamble baby!
     
    tojikiston, Nov 5, 2009
    tojikiston, Nov 5, 2009
    #52
  8. lenin

    lenin what the **** you say? Full Member

    2,531
    0
    Jan 20, 2007
    so your potential winning have to be around $500 right? that would be a nice payout. well good luck
     
    lenin, Nov 5, 2009
    lenin, Nov 5, 2009
    #53
  9. tojikiston

    tojikiston Contender Full Member

    1,179
    1
    Aug 3, 2009
    Thank you Vladimir Ilyich!:good
    Payout is $470.63 to be exact! :hey
    I was about to bet straight individually $30 a piece, but saw other option: parlay (which I have no idea what it is! :huh)
    So, I checked the bet and payout amount, it was a whole lot better deal! :hi:
    One bet = 3 times higher payout, then 2 straight ones! :good
    But I guess, they both have to win now :yep
    But usually first time gamblers are lucky (or so it seems to me :hey)

    Anyways, bet or no bet: Go Glen! Spark that dude out!!! :happy:happy
     
    tojikiston, Nov 5, 2009
    tojikiston, Nov 5, 2009
    #54
  10. manhattanboxer3

    manhattanboxer3 Well-Known Member Full Member

    2,358
    0
    May 26, 2009
    glen johnson will look like a 65 year old arthiritis patient in their with chad saturday night. free money betting on dawson
     
    manhattanboxer3, Nov 5, 2009
    manhattanboxer3, Nov 5, 2009
    #55
  11. Antsu

    Antsu Boxing Junkie Full Member

    11,144
    367
    Mar 5, 2006
    David Haye - Nikolay Valuev : Number of rounds
    Under 10.5 rounds
    2.30

    Either way it goes, I don’t really see it going to distance

    Martin Rogan - Sam Sexton 3.45

    Still considering should I or should I not to bet for Sexton, but they are offering pretty tempting odds to the guy, who won last time out and outboxed Rogan most of that fight
     
    Antsu, Nov 6, 2009
    Antsu, Nov 6, 2009
    #56
  12. Antsu

    Antsu Boxing Junkie Full Member

    11,144
    367
    Mar 5, 2006
    Easy money
     
    Antsu, Nov 6, 2009
    Antsu, Nov 6, 2009
    #57
  13. Ky

    Ky New Member Full Member

    34
    0
    Jun 8, 2005
    I just put £5 on a first round KO by Haye (meh, stranger things have happened in this sport) and another £5 on a draw. Absolutely no idea what that fight will end up looking like, so I just put some cash on whatever would make money.

    I'm confident in a Cotto win though, put £100 on him tonight, with more to follow closer to the fight.
     
    Ky, Nov 6, 2009
    Ky, Nov 6, 2009
    #58
  14. lenin

    lenin what the **** you say? Full Member

    2,531
    0
    Jan 20, 2007
    so you're taking the under for valuev/haye? how much are you putting down?


    I think that's a pretty risky bet. who do you think will win? I think the chances of haye knocking valuev out are very slim but if you think valuev is gonna win this fight then you'd probly get much better odds by betting on valuev by stoppage instead of just taking the under
     
    lenin, Nov 6, 2009
    lenin, Nov 6, 2009
    #59
  15. lenin

    lenin what the **** you say? Full Member

    2,531
    0
    Jan 20, 2007
    looks like there's some late money coming in on Valuev. I bet on haye couple weeks ago at -200 and now he's down to -170. Is Don king promoting somebody here? I saw him in the weigh in pics
     
    lenin, Nov 6, 2009
    lenin, Nov 6, 2009
    #60
Page 4 of 7