Just setting the record straight... I'm sure Rummy, kirk, and whoever else has run & tabulated a picking league of any decent size will agree the above metrics bear out for the average "knowledgeable" boxing fan. :good
I have more respect for posters who can identify the hype-jobs (like Broner & Ortiz) from the genuine articles (like Brook & Inoue). It shows they don't need Max Kellerman and Ring magazine to help them decide who's the real deal.
I'd have a stunningly accurate prediction rate on here, if it weren't for my dogged obstinate contrarian streak of going with the underdog that I really want to win. If just going by the upset losses I'd only be 10 picks down on kirk's challenge. Most of my inaccurate picks were accurate but robberies on the judge's scorecards.
I think most people are really rooting for someone rather than picking them to win. I root for fighters whom I like their styles and I don't necessarily predict they will win. For example, it was the case for me with DeGale vs Dirrell where I was rooting for DeGale and it wasn't really a prediction, I was unsure of the outcome.
Even guys like Atlas or Dwyer who get really bad raps probably don't have as low a % as some like to believe. The routine, straightforward picks they actually get right most often. They just both make bold against-the-grain picks that end up being way off and that sticks in everyone's minds. Realistically their % is probably not too much lower than normal for 'experts'. At minimum I'd guess somewhere in the high fifties.
Kellerman actually has a really good eye for talent, he just misses the mark sometimes. Everybody's human.
I know when i'm guessing. I get a specific feeling when I don't know who is going to win and just don't allow matters to go any further which is kind of like cherry picking I suppose.
:good Then on the other hand, you, like all of us, have poured your heart & soul into analytical dissections of a match-up and felt confident only to have it go sour. It happens. Not a biggie.
"if you had someone who claimed Salka was going to brutally knock out Garcia, their credibility needs to be forever questioned just based on that one pick." I predicated that :hey I think over the next 2 years i'm going to make a list of imaginary bets and picks. See how much money I would have made/lost if they were actually put down.
