I think the only factor that really matters is defense. The OP correctly gives the edge to Wlad, since his defense is"decent" and Haye's is basically non-existant. Despite Wlad having stated that he wants to punish Haye for many rounds, I expect a first round KO. Haye will try a rt-hand "haymaker," drop his left & then stick his head forward like he always does, and Wlad will remove it from his torso. The really interesting bet is, how many seconds will the headless Haye manage to run around the ring, before collapsing? I figure 7 seconds.
I don't think any of the two will take a risk come saturday. So for this fight being so hyped, there will indeed be no surprise this saturday. I predict a boring points win for Wlad. (yeah, I know both men are big punchers with shaky chins, but they both know too, that's why... there will not be a KO)