THIS is what MAKING A PICK looks like!

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What do you think each will bring to the table?
Mayweather - Technical skill, movement, defense, counterpunching, athleticism, reflexes, and speed

Hatton - Pressure, brawling, body punching, toughness, foot speed which can lead to him closing the distance very quickly, underrated hand speed, punch output, and physical strength

What do you expect their strategy to be?
Mayweather - I expect Mayweather to use his movement early on and potshot Hatton from the outside. He will give him different angles and move laterally in different directions to frusturate Hatton and keep Hatton occupied in trying to cut off the ring. I see him keeping it in the center of the ring too, where Hatton doesn't have the speed or timing to counter him nor the jab and boxing skills to out-box him. He will pick his spots to catch Hatton coming in with left hooks, right hands, and uppercuts. As the fight progresses, I see Floyd stepping it up and sit down on his shots more. He'll put punches together in combination and mix it up to the body and the head. If Hatton gets him in the ropes, that is where he will have the most success, but Floyd will find opportunities to counter and catch Hatton. He is sneaky off the ropes as seen in his fights with Jesus Chavez and Oscar De La Hoya. Sneaky and very hard to hit.

Hatton - Hatton will have one thing in mind: pressure. He will not be as sloppy and flat as he was against Collazo, as focused on out-boxing his opponent as he was against Urango, or intent on using his speed against a slower opponent like he was against Castillo. He will be coming forward, trying to cut off the ring, and push Floyd back into the ropes where he can sit down on his shots. He will want to utilize more feints to keep Floyd thinking. I expect him to move his head more when coming in, because he usually comes in with wide shots and no head movement, which leaves him very open. And a good counter puncher or a quick, accurate puncher can take advantage of this (Collazo). Hatton will try to get on the inside with a jab in this fight. There will be a good deal of clinches initiated by him, as he will try to open up Floyd and muscle him around.

How could each win?
Mayweather - Mayweather wins if he fights a smart fight. If he gives enough movement to keep Hatton chasing him, catches him coming in, counters him and catches him in the middle of Hatton's flurries, and still has unreal reflexes (which I'm positive he does). He can win by keeping this mostly in the center of the ring where his hand speed and defense will be all too apparent. He can't let Hatton cut off the ring too much and he can't let Hatton outwork him too much, or else judges may be swayed by the workrate and aggression of Hatton.

Hatton - Hatton can win if he fights the perfect fight. And by that, I mean coming in 110 percent, working inside behind a jab, giving head movement, utilizing feints when coming in, working the body, keeping a blistering workrate, cutting off the ring, giving different angles when Floyd is against the ropes and in corners, and roughing him up. To be honest, I think he needs to fight in a similar manner as Duran did in the first Leonard fight. The beauty of this is that if Hatton fights the perfect fight, Floyd is still very capable of winning.

How do you think this fight will play out?
I expect this fight to be close for the first 4 rounds. Hatton will pressure Floyd, move him back, dig into the body, and make it a physical/rough fight. Then, Floyd will adjust to Hatton and catch him coming in, stick and move, and make Hatton's aggression and pressure ineffective. He will sit down on his shots more in the mid to late rounds and throw quick/sharp/snappy combinations that bust up Ricky's face and make him more tired than usual (because of the shots he's taking and the movement of Floyd). I see a very good performance from Floyd Mayweather in this fight, with Hatton having some nice moments.

Final Prediction
Floyd Mayweather Jr UD12 Ricky Hatton
117-111, 117-111, 116-112

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Now, you may disagree with the analysis or the pick itself, but there is a lot of high quality material to engage with here - it doesn't simply consist of a description of what everyone can see on film, some platitudes and some throw-away remarks thrown in for good measure...

We can all learn from this approach to making picks. If we do it right, we become better analysts and ESB becomes a better place to talk boxing.

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:good

 

I am always trying to be the one starting a thread on a big fight for two reasons: I always ask for analysis and I always make the poll public, with UD/TKO separated out. I think this is the kind of threads that we can all learn from and engage with constructively.

 

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Hatton can close the distance and outwork Floyd in close, like Castillo did against Mayweather ( even though JLC grabbed with the left arm and nailed him with the right on the blind side of the ref), Fullmer and Basillio did against Sugar Ray, Duran did against Ray Leonard and even Ricky did against Tszyu but it's gonna be very, very hard for him even if the ref allows it... It takes a lot of energy from the aggressor and the other guy can counter short too:

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Also, check out the above example of some points made very well by Dorfmeister with the use of gifs, again on Mayweather v. Hatton.:good

 

I know you are just kidding...because most of us would agree we haven't seen a better analysis than that one for quite a while. We're just not taking the trouble anymore...preferring instead just to write down some rubbish and put some fighter down for his personality .

 

Of course he planned it! You don't make a good analysis by accident - he planned to give it a very good shot and he did.