Thomas Hearns replaces Bob Foster’s LHW title run, where does he come unstuck?

On paper I’d pick Hearns to beat all of those guys. But in reality I’m not sure how long Tommy could reign consistently at 175 without getting chinned

 

Dick Tiger wasn't a natural light heavy. Hearns was a bigger light heavy than Tiger was.

And Tiger wasn't a dominant light heavy. No one Foster fought in title fights at 175 was.

 

Chinned by whom? Tiger wasn't a big puncher.

And Hearns just has to beat the guys Bob Foster defended against. None of them were great challengers. Again, the defenses Foster made were the same caliber of guys Hearns' beat all the time.

It's not some wide-open list of great light heavys. You know the guys Bob Foster defended against and you said you'd pick Hearns to beat all of them.

So, I have no idea why you are all so hesitant to just pick Hearns.

Hearns floored Dennis Andries six times and lifted the WBC light heavy belt off him. Andries is better than anyone Foster defended against. And Hearns outboxed the master boxer Virgil Hill for his title, who is arguably a better light heavyweight than any Foster ever faced.

NOBODY chinned Hearns at light heavy. Nobody chinned him at super middle. Nobody chinned him at cruiser.

Why do you guys think light-punching Dick Tiger and a bunch of average joes are going to upset the applecart?

 

Tiger is one of those guys who just prove that KO% is a meaningless stat. Calling him 'light-punching' is just inaccurate.

 

Tiger's finishing finesse might be lacking,but he packed a very good strength and was a heavy puncher.
He stopped Spider Webb and Gene Armstrong who only got popped twice for each,and by his pressure and how Hearns were starting to slow at light heavyweight, Tiger and Ahumada definitely had a chance for some clobberin.

 

I think Finnegen is underestimated here. Especially if he fights before his home crowd. Same with Fourie--But he might get cut up w/ that poor skin of his.
I think Mike Quarry is a horrible match. A cutie pie and it goes to the cards and Tommy won't be at his destructive best against the guy.

Ahumada beats him. And folks have pointed out how tough a match it'd be with Dick Tiger.

Instead of watching Hearns in his destructive mode only, go watch his bouts w/ Kitchen. Dewitt. Singletary. And of ciourse Barkley---who was no terrific lh in there. LH was not Tommy's division and he needs boxers or sloppy defense guys to look his best at that weight.

This list of fighters is going to cause wear and tear on Hearns. Lots of rounds and not many ko2 results. Anyone really think he could afford to have those legs deteriorate more or lose his balance?

 

Absolutely this.

It also should be said that a lot of those guys who foster fought, even if they're not very good, were made of iron. Foster has cracked a bunch of ridiculously good chins, and I seriously doubt Hearns has that kind of firepower at 175.

 

Ok, I had a rarity of having a protracted bit of spare time on my hands this morning, so have spent some more time analysing this.

Hearns first moved up to LHW in 1987. Whilst in reality he was up & down in weight, I'll assume he stayed at LHW until 1993 and during that time fought the same versions of the below that Foster did, also over a 6-year period. The first percentage is my estimation of Hearns chances of winning, which I've then converted to a decimal:

• 1987 vs Dick Tiger - 45/55% = 0.45
• 1987 vs Frank DePaula - 99/1% = 0.99
• 1988 vs Andy Kendall - 98/2% = 0.98
• 1989 vs Roger Rouse (holds 2 wins & draw over Eddie Cotton and a win over Henry Hank, but had begun to slip by the time of the Foster title fight) - 96/4% - 0.96
• 1989 vs Mark Tessman (decent fighter who was 31-1 going into the Foster fight & also holds a win over Hank, but the style match up would favour Hearns) - 95/5% - 0.95
• 1990 vs Hal Carroll - 97/3% = 0.97
• 1990 vs Ray Anderson (an inconsistent fighter with some losses to fighters who couldn't lace Hearns boots, but he was heavy handed & holds a win vs a 192lbs Gregorio Peralta, 1-year after Peralta took Foreman 10-rounds) - 85/15% = 0.85
• 1990 vs Tommy Hicks - 99/1% = 0.99
• 1990 vs Brian Kelly (another guy who was a level below Hearns, but who could punch & was on a 22-fight win streak, which included a victory over Rouse) - 95/5% - 0.95
• 1991 vs Vicente Rondan (reigning WBA LHW champion with 3 x successful defences to his name, who held wins over the brilliant LMR, Bennie Briscoe & Rouse, as well as multiple other fringe contenders at LHW. At 6ft 1ins, he had filled out his frame into a big LHW by the time of the Foster fight and could punch a bit, too. Rondon took Shavers 10-rounds just 2-fights later, so Hearns isn't getting him out of there, he's going to have to survive Rondan for 15-rounds, well above his own best weight. This was Foster's first big test since Tiger) - 55/45% = 0.55
• 1991 vs Mike Quarry (35-0 going into the Foster fight, but against limited opposition & another style matchup that favours Hearns) - 85/15% = 0.85
• 1991 vs Chris Finnegan (excellent fighter who performed well vs Foster. Holds wins over Rouse, Caroll & Quarry and pushed John Conteh very close just 8-months after the Foster fight) - 75/25% - 0.75
• 1992 vs Pierre Fourie (it should be noted this is when Hearns legs started to go a bit & he lost a decision to Barkley, who was by no means a great LHW, not even close. Fourie was 43-1-1 going into the fight, holds wins over Tessman & Quarry and would go onto to lose by SD over 15-rounds vs the brilliant Victor Galindez - 50/50% = 0.50
• 1992 vs Pierre Fourie 2 - 50/50% = 0.50
• 1993 vs Jorge Ahumada (holds wins over Carroll, Anderson, Kendall and lost competitive 15-round decisions vs both Galindez & Conteh, as well as a draw over 15-rounds versus a faded Foster, so the well past prime Hearns isn't getting him out of there & would need to survive 15-rounds) - 50%/50% = 0.50

0.45 x 0.99 x 0.98 x 0.96 x 0.95 x 0.97 x 0.85 x 0.99 x 0.95 x 0.55 x 0.85 x 0.75 x 0.50 x 0.50 x 0.50 = 0.0135. i.e. I give a LHW Hearns from 1987-93, a 1.35% chance of going through Foster's 15 x title opponents as they were when Foster fought them, unbeaten.

Posters may assign different %'s to the above & that's fine. Tbh, I'm not that interested if someone has different views on the probable outcomes of any of the individual fights. What I would be interested in is if someone replicated the above, assigning their own probability to all 15-fights. If anyone does that I'm happy to convert to decimals and let them know their overall probability of Hearns going unbeaten.

I've read some crazy takes on this site, particularly recently, Hearns being favoured to go through Foster's 15 x LHW title fights unbeaten isn't the craziest, but it's right up there amongst the least well thought through.

 

Tiger sparked Rouse, who had shown a sturdy chin & had been stopped only by injury prior to their fight. He was still a solid puncher up @ LHW.

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The pre-Kronk version of Andries was extremely crude & sloppy. he was definitively not better than Tiger & likely not Ahumada either IMO.

 

In 81 fights, Dick Tiger stopped 17 boxers with winning records. If you take offense that I call him light-punching, maybe that's the wrong term. But he was no KO artist ... like Hearns was, who everyone seems to be ignoring.

People seem to be forgetting they have to fight Hearns, too. He just has to fight them.

 

Thomas Hearns was an excellent boxer and puncher. His resume is quality.

All-time great boxers had difficulty outpointing him. (In fact, none did. Only one crude brawler ended up turning the trick, one time, over a 29-year career.)

All-time great punchers had difficulty stopping him before getting stopped themselves.

Hearns knocked out 43 opponents (from welterweight to cruiserweight) who had winning records. 43 with winning records. (KEEP THAT IN MIND as we continue.)

He knocked down Dennis Andries six times and stopped him to win the WBC light heavy title. He floored and thoroughly outboxed Hall of Famer Virgil Hill to take his WBA light heavy title.

And if you had to compile a list of 13 light heavyweight challengers who might possibly outpoint OR STOP the all-time great Thomas Hearns, you arguably couldn’t find 13 LIGHTER-PUNCHING, LESS LIKELY opponents to bet on.

In 37 fights, Mark Tessman stopped 3 fighters (NOT 43, but 3) with winning records.

In 58 fights, Brian Kelly stopped 4 fighters with winning records.

In 42 fights, Hal “TNT” Carroll stopped 4 fighters with winning records.

In 60 fights, Pierre Fourie stopped 5 fighters with winning records.

In 31 fights, Frank DePaula stopped 6 fighters with winning records.

In 33 fights, Tommy Hicks stopped 6 fighters with winning records.

In 66 fights, Roger Rouse stopped 7 fighters with winning records.

In 81 fights, Mike Quarry stopped 7 fighters with winning records.

In 69 fights, Andy Kendall stopped 8 fighters with winning records.

In 59 fights, Vicente Rondon stopped 9 fighters with winning records.

In 52 fights, Jorge Ahumada stopped 11 fighters with winning records.

In 59 fights, Ray Anderson stopped 11 fighters with winning records.

In 37 fights, Chris Finnegan stopped 12 fighters with winning records.

In 81 fights, Dick Tiger stopped 17 fighters with winning records (and lost or drew 22 times himself)

Thomas Hearns was not only one of the best finishers of the 20th Century but a guy who was only outpointed once in 67 bouts (via split decision) over 29 years.

The argument that any of them, with their woeful KO percentages against winning boxers, are going to outbox or KO Hearns themselves is beyond a REACH. Well beyond.

OF COURSE, Thomas Hearns runs the table on Foster’s light heavyweight title opponents.

Of course he does.

 

In 63-fights, Iran Barkley stopped 15 fighters with winning records (less than 1 in 4, compared to, say, Chris Finnegan, who was 1 in 3 according to your post). OF COURSE, he doesn't stop Thomas Hearns.

Iran Barkley, powerful (yes, despite the above statistic, he was powerful, as was Dick Tiger, amongst other Foster opponents), brave & durable as he was, was a very crude boxer at world level, he was outpointed by a 37-year old fat former LW and just 3-years after outpointing Hearns was outpointed by Tosca Petridis (who ended his career with a 9-5-1 record) in the latter's 2nd professional contest. I agree with you that Hearns was a masterful, ATG boxer, OF COURSE Barkley isn't going to outpoint Thomas Hearns, for heavens sake!

Oh, hang on, he did stop AND outpoint Hearns. So, boxing must just not quite work the way you're implying that it does. Which is why the likes of even SRR and Greb, suffered losses into title reigns before they got to 15-successful lineal title defences....

 

And anyone thinks a Thomas Hearns-Pierre "freaking" Fourie matchup is an even, flip a coin type of fight, has lost the plot entirely.

Hearns floored and outboxed Virgil Hill at 175, for Christ's sake. Who was the best guy Pierre actually beat, ever, in his long career?

 

Hearns didn't floor Hill did he ? Not that I remember although I've only seen the fight once to be fair.

The issue is with threads like this is that no one ever has a realistic scenario.

Hearns wouldn't be at his best in every fight let's say we start Hearns reign in 1987 ? Foster had what a 6 or 7 year reign ? And thats with Foster fighting ATG Heavyweights inbetween aswell.

That means Hearns would have to be champion from 1987 to 1993/1994 whilst having non title fights inbetween against bigger fighters and Hearns was considerably past his best.

 

Nonsense.

Fourie went 15-rounds in a SD with the great LHW Victor Galindez. Iran Barkley was a vastly inferior LHW to Galindez, he wouldn't have a hope in hell of taking Victor to an SD over 15-rounds in two attempts.

Even then, I'd favour the Hearns who beat Andries over Fourie, but I think the Hearns from Barkley 2, whose legs had clearly started to go, is a pick-em fight.