Thomas Hearns vs. Kelly Pavlik @ 160

Hearns wins by a 3rd round k.o.
second pick would be Hearns by a U.D.

 

I agree, good analysis.

 

Considering Iran Barkley could take Hearns best shots and prevail, I would not count out Kelly Pavlik.
Pavlik's chin is vastly underrated as of late, because he got cooky and paid for it full stop in the second round, but it wasn't one shot that put him down, it was a barrage of punches that put him down, and Taylor is not a small middleweight, so when he unleashes those punches, you can't eat too many of them flush.

I've seen Pavlik take some awesome overhand rights right on the button, and not even blink(by solid punchers). I've seen Iran Barkley get counted out @ 160 by Robbie Sims... but went on to slaughter Tommy @ 160, early.
So realistically, Pavliks chances @ 160lbs would be great.

 

Since you are such an expert on defense, isn't Povetkin's defense kind of shitty too?

 

The Iran Barkley argument is a fair example, but I think that Hearns was considerably past it compared to the Hagler fight at 160 and Pavlik would only have a tiny chance of landing a huge punch flush when Hearns is pulling out like Barkley did. Hearns would have very little trouble outboxing Pavlik and fighting a safe, effective fight. I really doubt Pavlik would be able to take more than 10 flush Hearns right hands on his chin. Taylor put him down after landing some very big consecutive sloppy punches, but he's still a weak puncher. Hearns' power punches were pin point and Pavlik isn't hard to find. I would be very surprised to see Pavlik take big shots from Hearns for more than 6 rounds. And I would give Pavlik a 5% chance at best to stop Hearns with one shot like Barkley did, his punches are just too predictable and he has nothing awkward about his style.

Povetkin's defense needs a lot of improvement obviously. But I believe his chin is iron, unlike Pavlik's. And he's just a better, less sloppy fighter overall.

I would pick a HW version of Hearns over Povetkin too if you want to know. The stoppage wouldn't happen early though. Povetkin would be stopped (most likely on cuts) in the middle rounds.

 

Pavlik has lapses in defense but his chin is good otherwise he would have been stopped by Miranda and Taylor. I don't know if Povetkin's chin is iron, we will find out soon enough.

 

Hearns is a tough fighter and can take a punch, I think in Hearns case with him being chinney, it has more to do with his thin legs and very large frame at the body. With that type of body its easy for a hard hitter to get Hearns off-balance, but no doubt he's tough and can take a punch. Against Pavlik, I predict Hearns will take Pavlik's best shot, and still fire away, basically giving him a boxing lesson. Remeber in his second with fight with Barkley, he took some brutal shots and wasn't knocked out.

 

Pavlik would certainly not be able to take 10 flush punches by Tommy.
You do have some valid points, however.. I think that you're seriously underrating Pavliks chin and ability to weather a storm.
Another good point that I havent seen in this thread is how good of a back-pedaling puncher Tommy was, far better technique moving backwards than Miranda, Zuniga, Zertuche and Miranda!
We've all seen Kelly take some helluva punches early, and weather them, but punchers that only can punch moving forward is always vulnerable against someone that can press them backwards, Miranda lost all his efficiency when he found out that he couldnt stand there and trade with Kelly.

Hearns would indeed be able to move out of the way and pepper Kelly with a jab, followed by his awesome right hand. But if Pavlik weathers the storm early (up till the sixth or seventh round when Tommy begins to slow down), it would turn in Pavliks favor.
For Pavlik to get the knockout win, he needs to trap Tommy on the ropes and bombard him like he's done with so many fighters already, but none that are quite like Hearns.

I think it's pretty obvious that Tommy's skills are superior, and that he would most likely outbox/outjab Pavlik, but Pavlik would by no means not be able to compete with Tommy, he would land punches early, and he would be the one forcing the action, it would be far more competetive than some people on here seem to assume.

So with that, I say that this would be helluva matchup and some serious leather will be delivered :bbb

 

This is where I don't understand where some people come from. Why is it that guys have to be "awkward" or "different" to be special? Is it so bad that Pavlik is throwback-textbook style? Cause I would prefer that over many, if not all, awkward styles. Arguello wasn't awkward in any way, shape, or form. He was pretty basic, but a DAMN GOOD basic fighter that was very special and a tough matchup, if not best, for any head to head matchup at 130. 160 is Pavs natural weight. He has top notch power, chin, stamina, and MAKES the other guy fight, which is Hearns worst nightmare. People are bringing SRL into this thread which proves absolutely nothing because he is stylistically nothing like Pavlik. Styles make fights people, and imo Pavlik has more going for him in this matchup than Hearns. If Hearns brought a good game plan he could take this fight, but I give Pavlik a 60-70% chance of taking this fight to Hearns' 30-40%. Just my .2 cents

 

Alexis Arguello was a master technician. Kelly Pavlik has B level skills with very good stamina/workrate, accumulative punching power, and a fairly solid chin. That's it. His abilities like footspeed, handspeed, balance, timing/accuracy are nothing special at all. His defense sucks. A fighter doesn't need to be awkward to be something special, they simply need to be something special. Pavlik is very solid, but he's not something special.. in that he's not an amazing overall fighter because of how limited he is. His offense is the only thing that makes him very effective in this weak MW division and this offense isn't even at the level of true elite fighters. He also often fights sloppy and elite fighters would not have a very hard time adjusting to him. Pavlik wouldn't be able to make a true top level fighter like Hearns, or even a Kessler fight his fight.

Yes, styles make fights and Hearns has a bigger styles advantage over Pavlik than vice versa because he's a multidimensional fighter who could easily outbox Pavlik and force him to fight his fight.

Oh, and an awkward style is a very good thing. I would rather have prime Roy Jones talent than any fighter's technical skill.

 

How do you figure he is bad at defense cause he is not like winky or floyd??? Come on the guys got good D and is open cause he is throw alot of punches. Any boxer that throws alot of punches is open. They key for pavlik is he takes a punch to throw a great punch. and the kids defense is solid he blocks head punchs very deceptivly with his right hand i love it. Pavlik KO in 5 just like hagler i can see pav walking through alot of bull**** stay off my punches with not alot of authory cause he felt pavs right hand. Pavlik never ran or backpedled from a fighter yet.!!

 

God damn..

"Any boxer that throws alot of punches is open". That's an insult to many great fighters.

 

Good points made, as always. But I do personally think Pavlik is a special fighter. I guess I don't know how to put it....he's not special like a Mayweather Jr, Guzman, or Calzaghe, but he's special in a Joe Frazier type of way imo. He trains hard, gets in the ring and does his thing with what he's got. And some of what he has is at the elite level imo. I would take JC to beat him for sure, Kessler would have a good chance, and possibly Abraham. But I just think his style is perfect to take down Hearns at 160. Funny you bring up his footwork, timing, and accuracy. All underrated imo. He LOOKS awkward and off balance at times, but in reality he is damn good in those categories. Everyone knows his bread and butter is the jab (or double) to set up the straight right.....so why is it that no one can get away from it? Excellent timing and accuracy. And as for footwork....he got his nickname as "the ghost" because he could slip around his opponents without them even knowing where he was at times (in his amateur days). He also cuts off the ring extremely well. I hate to make him out to be the second coming of christ, which he isn't , but I think he's underrated in certain areas of the game

 

this bull**** really ****s me off as well. yes he recovered well, IN THE NEXT ROUND!!! did you forget him hunched over in round 2 stumbling across the ring as JT winged shots at him?

pavlik was in laa laa land for the rest of that round yet pavliksexuals seem to have completely erased this from their memories.

 

It was a mistake that he has learned from hopefully; I don't think anyone has forgot about it