Thought Experiment: Predicting the results of fights that actually happened

Using mutual opponents, stylistic match ups, results before and after, the real fight conditions. Of course the trick is to block the result out of your mind, and try to do it honestly, obviously anyone can work backwards and explain something once it happened

To start off with maybe try:
Joe Frazier Vs George Foreman
Marvin Hagler Vs Sugar Ray Leonard
Rocky Marciano Vs Jersey Joe Walcott I
or whatever you like, the exact fight doesn't really matter.

 

Foreman against Frazier is interesting. Frazier has definitely been slowing down and taking easier defenses after Ali. At least this year. He's still pretty young, though. And he went through the rest of the division like a buzzsaw.

My guess is that somebody like Norton dethrones Frazier. A solid puncher with skills, size, and stamina, whom Frazier can't bully. And remember that Norton just beat Ali.

As for Foreman, he's far too crude to favor over Frazier. Yeah, he might catch Frazier with something, but Frazier is utterly tenacious. Remember all the punches that he recovered from against Bonavena, Quarry, Ellis, Chuvalo, and the rest?

Now look at the guys Foreman beat. Yeah, he's an Olympic champion, but aside from an older Chuvalo and Peralta (who took a while to put away), I see a lot of record padding going on. And if you look at Foreman's slow, limited skills, you can figure out why. Foreman's handlers have probably decided that he's not going to get much more skilled. Conclusion? They're trying to cash out Foreman's Olympic medal and admittedly impressive power into a title fight. My guess is that he ends up in the lower end of the top 10.

I'm worried that Frazier is getting sloppy. But if Frazier comes in shape, I still don't think Foreman is the guy to expose his growing weaknesses.

 

In fact, let me be blunt.

I think the only reason people are betting their VCash on Foreman is that this forum is overrun by Ali fanboys. They're so convinced that Frazier lost the Fight of the Century that they're betting on a crude, slow clubber with no footwork to land on the guy who slipped most of Ali's punches.

(If you want to see a hilarious example of denial, go on the General forum's FOTC round by round thread. The serpentine knots that Ali fanboys tied themselves into, on fight night, to convince themselves that Ali was winning are the stuff of legend. I just hope Ali and Frazier don't have a second fight. The whining after Frazier beats Ali again will be utterly insufferable. Yeah, yeah, we get it. Ali is funny on Twitter. Get over it, guys...)

 

That was absolutely brilliant.

 

Utterly fantastic! Can you do this in book length and with famous fights? And with the book, provide a cowbell. Please do Louis/SchmelingListon/CLAY NEXT

 

It's always nice to find another person who appreciates the tasteful blending of fictional boxing history and cowbells.

 

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My predictions for these would be:

Foreman KO mid rounds
Hagler UD
Marciano KO mid rounds

And to throw in a few fun ones:

Holyfield UD Tyson (first fight)
Marciano KO early round Cockell
Dempsey KO late rounds Tunney
Tyson KO late Douglas
Louis KO Schmeling mid rounds (first fight)
Baer KO Braddock late rounds
Baer KO Carnera mid rounds
Ali UD Frazier (first fight)
Patterson KO Ingo early rounds (first fight)
Larry Holmes UD Ali
Tyson KO late Holmes
Dempsey KO Willard mid rounds

 

A lot of people would lose their shirts on Frazier-Foreman.

Foreman obviously had a punch, but he was untested in the way Frazier was. Foreman hadn't gone rounds- he went ten rounds three times going in to it, and that was it. He hadnt faced the caliber of fighter Joe did. He was more carefully managed.

The take: Joe would survive some early scares but would be too tough to fold. He'd wear down George with a pace Foreman couldn't handle, leading to an ugly stoppage in the latter stages of the fight

That's why Smokin' Joe was a 3.5-1 favorite going in to it.

 

A lot of people DID lose their shirts. But the fight made Cosell who predicted exactly what happened in his book 1 yr before.

 

Good points!

 

I think I'd have predicted Frazier to beat Foreman, and Marciano to steamroll Walcott. I did correctly predict Holyfield would beat Tyson (though not the way I expected) and Maywather vs McGregor went pretty much as I thought it would. (I suspect crossing over from MMA to boxing and vice versa is much more doable than most people think, and that the reason this hasn't happened is the risks so far outweigh the rewards of staying in a sport where you're already a demonstrated success.)

 

Well crafted indeed.

 

I would have picked frazier to hammer a raw Foreman into a mid to late round tko.

hagler to batter a faded Leonard into a mid round stoppage. i believe haglers southpaw stance would have negated Leonards jab and broken any Kind of rhythem he may have had. and once Leonard stops running haglers power would have cracked Leonards suspect chin.

as for rocky vs Walcott...……..i think i would have picked rocky to outwork Walcott for a UD. similar to what Rex layne did to him.

 

Tua KO 1 Maskaev who was slow starter with suspect chin. The real fight was a bit different with Maskaaev boxing Tua's ears off until late rds