Wavering between Cotto, being the skill guy with Roach and a solid game plan behind him and the realities of Canelo, just being too strong and young in the end. Cotto lacks durability and his stamina is also gimpy after 6. I can see Cotto being up on the cards and finally succumbing after a vicous barrage late, however Canelo doesn't have the work-rate to usually win by attrition. Fight hinges on whether Canelo can land those uppercuts and how Cotto responds to the body shots. Cotto can also bounce a hook on an overaggressive Canelo, don't hook with a hooker, but Canelo also has a lethal left hook. Who has the better left hook? its a game changer, who will land it first.......
The fight comes down to how well Cotto can take Canelo's single shot power. Cotto is faster, way more skilled, has a higher workrate, and is smarter than Canelo but we really haven't seen him get tagged since moving up to Middleweight. Canelo is going to catch him at least a few times with big shots. If he can handle those times, he'll comprehensibly outbox Canelo. As to who has the better left hook, it's definitely Cotto. He sets it up a lot better off his jab, his technique is better, and it's a faster hook. Canelo's left hook "might" be more powerful but he can only land it against fighters that don't have good boxing skills because he doesn't set it up well so it doesn't really factor against Cotto.
see I don't think Miguel will assimilate those single power shots well, hell Mayweather landed and Cotto buckled in the twelth and memories of Cotto wilting against the human piñata albeit (with possible quick crete in his mits) and memories of the Pac fight have me believing that Cotto doesn't take punishment well. The only thing that keeps me from being all in on Canelo, is his sorry work-rate and plodding footwork. Cotto only has to move every time Canelo gets set, when Canelo begins to reset dart in and punish him and bounce out when he plants again. Then again when I see videos of Mayorga, claiming Cotto, hit so hard he thought he had something in his gloves and Mayorga claiming that Cotto hit him harder than Trinidad, yet Margarito was walking him down at will, does Margo have titanium in his jaw as well as cement in his gloves? for me Cotto has always been this enigma... I feared for his health vs Sergio and was in shock that he basted Martinez out, bum knee or not.
Canelo wins. The styles favor him (slightly) on paper but the current skill difference will be the deciding factor. I think that Canelo is better than Cotto is now and will show it.
cotto wins. better boxer, experienced and a great trainer in roach. he is at an all time high with his confidence and will break canelo down as he gasses out in the later rounds. canelo doesn't have the stamina to go hard all 12.
cotto is going to surprise canelo with his underrated speed and power and canelo will not know what to do. lets see how he adjusts.
Interestingly enough one of the major aspects motivating Canelo supporters for this fight is the fact/opinion that cotto doesn't move like mayweather or Lara. This is essentially true he will employ more subtle deliberate movements that should slightly offset canelos natural aggression. Unlike Margo who used methodically wide almost caveman like punches Canelo thrives on sharp, crisp quick combination punching which is effective when your opponent stands directly in front of you. Margo didn't necessary need you to be right in front of him so one found more success popping in and out with explosive movement with Margo any pocket movement worked for only a short period because he had the durability the crude wide attack and the conditioning which I don't think Canelo has or at least not at Margos level. In a nutshell this fight will come down to correct strategy.....I doubt Canelo will simply walk straight in to Cottos wheel house and run him over it just isn't practical even if he holds practically every physical advantage.
This is an interesting fight all around. In one side we have the old lion who has gone to hell and back on his previous fights versus great champs and on the other side we have a young lion who is trying to proof himself as the next Chavez. This fight is going to come down to experience, skills and stamina. Both fighters have shown in the past to gas out in the latter rounds of fights which could be their demise. Canelo has the tools to pull if off, now its up to him to follow the plan and execute. Cotto on the other hand has the experience and skills needed to tame the young lion, all he has to do also follow his game plan. If neither of them, changes plan or can adapt to the other fighter's fight plan, he is doomed. At any case, I will be there to witness this event live.
I think that the experience can pull the fight and Cotto got that, I recognize that Canelo got good skills but honestly for me is over rated. I never see Canelo fight someone like Cotto that can hit hard round by round let see staying with my money in Cotto and Freedy
Cotto better take a page out of ggg vs lemiux and keep that jab popping. Keep him busy with it. Watch out for that upper and stay off the ropes. Don't fight in the pocket. Fight at a safe distance or inside, pushing him to the ropes and pounding the body
