TIPS for BETTING on BOXING

Maybe it's cancelled by the biased judging in his favour?

 

all other variables being equal:
-pick the boxer over the puncher
-pick the younger fighter over the older fighter

 

And remember: "a good big man beats a good little man"

 

dam you post like a mad man

 

Right. Pretty sure that the boxer wins over the puncher 90% of the time in a hyped-up match with top-level fighters

 

That test is rigged, I got a 99%

 

Some general principles of betting on boxing

• Be careful betting on boxers who are fighting an opponent with a style they have not faced before if you don’t have a reference point for that style from another boxer
• Speed does not necessarily kill. A fast skilful boxer can be slowed by heavy hands and sometimes do not like mixing it
• Non athletic factor such as family and finances etc can influence the preparation of a fighter and hence the outcome
• The location of a fight ie homecrowd advantage can be a material factor to consider and change the approach the visiting boxer adopts if they are not confident of securing a decision result
• The referees predispositions can be material ie inclination to stop fights early or tight control of holding that impacts a boxers tactics
• Hype can skew odds – can be a source of value bets
• The type of gloves used for a fight can advantage one fighter over the other
• Big hitters can be frustrated by a boxer that has good evasive skills
• Big hitters often take bigger risks in getting punches always and are vulnerable to counter punching
• Boxers learn from their mistakes so you need to factor this in when studying a boxer’s previous performances
• Always check if a boxer’s chin and defensive skills has been tested particularly if they are skilful and have a winning record. A fighter who has never had to fight on the back foot due to their strong offensive skills can be in trouble if pressured.
• If boxing success was broken down into the contributing factors it only takes one factor to explain the reason a boxer won despite before the fight his opponent was superior in all other factors and on a weighted average basis was the better boxer
• A boxer that is lauded as untouchable is only one punch away from that myth being dispelled. People generally can only conceive what they have seen not what is possible, betting is based on what is possible and the logical basis as to the likelihood of it occurring.
• Be agnostic, don’t approach a fight with a preconception that over rides the evidence, let evidence decide the case not prejudice.
• Holding can be a big factor when a skilful fighter faces a big puncher. The skilful fighter and keep distance and then just hold when the puncher tries to deliver a punch
• A boxer with a strong jab is a good bet , no jab, no hope is generally a safe maxim to bet on
• The speed of footwork can be just as important as hand speed
• When a boxer is far superior in skill he might not be inclined to take risks for a KO even if it is eminently achievable
• Things to look for
o Position of the elbows in terms of the vulnerability for a body attack
o Falling in after punching on terms of vulnerability to being counterpunched
o Stance in terms of how it impacts power and mobility
o Ability to fight on the back foot

 

My tip for you is to stop posting things that might lead to a negative path of thought regarding the career of Joe Calzaghe.

 

I subscribe to the view that betting on value propositions is always the approach. Calculate fair value based on your assumption of the probability of outcomes and compare that to the market price

 

Rarely do I bet on the winner prop,Far better odds on the over/under and the fight ending by dec./ko route.Draw is a sucker bet and rarely pays out.:good

 

the odds are normally horrible i tend to stay away from it but i regret not betting on pavlik

 

Honestly I have no idea, it is not something that I realy keep a note on. I lost quite big on Mosley. But win on football acumulators quite alot. I usually pick fights correctly too.

 

Great thread, I should realy start to use brains instead of emotions when I bet :yep All picks I made were too mutch emotion and greed driven, I even bet my last 50 vcash on hatton even tho Im certain that Floyd will win:tired