When I ran the Klitschko-Arreola heavyweight fight through the Title Bout Boxing sim it picked Klitschko to win by a fair margin. After weathering an early barrage (If Arreola is in shape), Vitali will likely break Arreola down and stop him in the later rounds (9 to 12).
I would be surprised if Klitschko didn't win, but how many people picked Buster Douglass to beat Tyson, anything can happen in a title fight.
There was a guy on this forum who used to run similuated fights on "Fight Night" (i think), and post the round-by-round results with screen shots here. It was remarkably accurate. Where is that dude?
I think Vitali finishes him earlier than that. This fight goes 5 rounds tops. Arreola does not have good punch resistance and he'll be tired to boot.
