It could happen, but Tony could win by UD as well. Just that the skills didn't develop. One of the biggest what odd concerning heavies at that time.
I'm taking a prime Spinks in this one. Tucker was a good fighter but could be out worked. I remember a small Orlin Norris losing a split decision that he rightfully should have one against Tucker by out working him. Leon in his swarming herky jerky prime was a very active pressure fighter that I believe would have one via UD against the larger Tucker.
Split decision with for Tucker, if it's the very best of Leon, he puts pressure on Tony but fails to hurt him.