Tucker UD. Tucker would just stay at range and jab away at the much smaller Toney. In his prime, Tucker was in great condition, had a fine jab, and moved well. And, there is no way Toney could hurt Tucker.
Tucker was well conditioned, had a decent jab, a good uppercut and was capable of dictating the pace against smaller fighters barring some notable exceptions. Toney could potentially make it ugly but he simply (based on what I've seen from him at HW) wouldn't be able to mount the kind of offense necessary to beat a guy like Tucker. There are some decent Heavyweights that Toney could potentially beat, but I don't think Tucker is one of them. Tucker UD12.
Tucker was very good but imo the idea that he would be able to pick off Toney with his jab for an easy decision doesn't seem realistic to me since Toney was so good at slipping straight punches and closing distance while countering and he showed that he had the chin to take a heavyweight punch just fine. I think it would be a very long night if that was tuckers strategy
I think he will still produce the better work after all is said and done. He may not hurt the 5'9 Toney, but I believe he can win via effective aggression.
Also this reminds of a proposed fight back in 2004; James Toney vs Jameel McCline. It didn't materialize but who do ya'll think would have emerged victorious if the fight came off?
This is the most likely outcome for sure. Just dont see Tucker winning trying to pick off Toney at range. I think people overrated Tucker slightly and Toney as heavyweight (for a time) was very underrated and people forget he soundly outboxed Ruiz, Rahman, Holyfield and imo Sam Peter I.