I think Fury should have fought Usyk in early 2023. However, he took the Whyte and Ngannou fights for low risk and more money and calculated that when he eventually fought Usyk in 2024, he would have slowed down and slipped enough for Fury to win. He miscalculated. I don't think Fury beats Usyk in March 2023, but he has really gone downhill in the last year and his chances of beating Usyk went downhill as well.
Fury wouldn't beat Usyk in the condition he was in. A coke lifestyle combined with getting nearly killed by wilder in the first fight in the last round and getting knocked down multiplle times is what did him in. If Fury had just come out of his fight with Wlad, I don't see Usyk winning.