UFC 81 Predictions thread.

Okay so I haven't done an indepth one like this since I think the mid UFC 70's.
I'll just be doing the main card from the bottom to the top.

Nathan Marquardt vs Jeremey Horn
So this is Marquardt coming straight off of his loss from A. Silva and the prolific fighter Jermey Horn coming off his suprising loss to Jorge Santiago.
Now Marquardt is perhaps naturally bigger than Horn, the level of competition is about the same, but I think that Marquardt has better wrestling and I reckon Horn has better standup, on the ground Marquardt has great Jiu Jitsu, but Horn's is better.
You know, Horn came in as a late replacement for Leites but I think he can pull the upset, I really do. I would not be suprised though if Marquardt was able to bull Horn around the octagon using his superior strength and size.
But I'm going for Horn by UD.

Alan Belcher vs Ricardo Almeida
In my opinion this is one of the easiest fights to call and thats due to the fact that Almeida hasn't fought since 2004. You've really got to wonder if Almeida's skills have deteriorated since then, will he be rusty? You've got to think he will be.
Belcher is coming of wins against Sean Salmon and Kalib Starnes, so his confidence will be high. Due to the inactivity of Almeida, I'm going to have to give the win to Belcher by a stoppage from strikes. (I think at their peaks Almeida is/was more talented than Belcher)

Brock Lesnar vs Frank Mir
Yes, the one everyones all been talking about, the UFC debut of Brock Lesnar. I think what they've done with Brock is suicide, throwing him in their with such a veteran like Mir. Sure Mir isn't the same since his motorcylce accident, he's still a very tough challenge.
This fight is so hard to predict because we really don't know what Brock has to offer apart from wrestling and ridiculous strength, he was a great college wrestler but that was 8-9 years ago, how far removed is he from that? How will he take a punch? How is his submission defence?
All questions we're asking. No doubt Mir will answer them.

Mir has wins over Tim Sylvia, Sims, Hardonk, Williams, Christison, Abbott.
I know there is alot of sentamentality for Mir because of his accident but if you look at his competition with the exception of Sylvia, it really isn't that great. I think the equalizer in this fight is the fact that Mir has seriously declined since his accident and isn't coming in fighting fit.

But for the reason that Brock is only on his second fight and his first opponent was a can, I'm going with Mir. Mir is just too experienced imo and will show things to Brock, Brock has never seen.
This fight has a great chance to be a borefest, I can see Brock rushing in taking Mir down and then Mir nullifying Brock with his BJJ for long periods.
I am going to go for Mir by UD.

Tim Sylvia vs Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
This is essentially for the HW title. It is involving probably the most hated fighter in MMA against one of the most loved and one of the greatest in MMA. Sylvia has wins over Arlovski (x2), Vera, Rodriguez and Monson. Nogueira has probably the best resmue of any HW out there with wins over Goodridge, Coleman, Herring (x3), Schilt, Crocop, Rodriguez, Kharitonov, Werdum and Barnett. Just a ridiculous amount of good fighters.

That being said, I am taking Sylvia in this fight. Why? Well I think its a very bad stylistic matchup for Nog. Sylvia is huge, he has height and reach against Nog and Sylvia knows how to use them effectively. Nog doesn't really have the power in his hands to trouble Sylvia. Nog doesn't have the takedowns and the wrestling to trouble Sylvia to get him to the ground and work his BJJ against him.
I see Sylvia using his massive reach of keeping Nog at bay and pressing him against the cage ala the Vera fight into winning a 5 round UD.
I don't see a KO or TKO because, like I said, Nog doesn't have the power to crack Sylvias good chin and Nog has an iron chin himself.
Sylvias size, takedown defence and reach is what will win him this fight and Nogs relative weak punching and weak wrestling is what will lose him the fight.

Like the Lensar-Mir fight, this has a great chance of becoming a borefest with Sylvia pushing Nog against the cage and keeping him at the long range of his lanky arms.

Thats it!
Horn by UD.
Belcher by stoppage.
Mir by UD.
Sylvia by UD.

 

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Everyone should check this guy out on youtube. He does MMA videos, funny as hell.

 

I'm making a change on my predictions.
Its the Horn-Marquardt fight, I was pulling Horn for the upset but due to the fact that he's taking this fight at short notice with not enough training time to prepare for someone like Nate, I'm going with Marquardt by stoppage from strikes, Rd 2.
I think his superior athleticism will also help him win this fight.

I would also like to state(for the hell of it), I'm rooting for Nog and Lesnar in their respective fights despite the fact I've predicted them to lose, I am happy to be proven wrong on both accounts.