UFC events and matchups predictions- Sportsbook

Discussion in 'MMA Forum' started by outtieDrake, Jan 18, 2021.

  1. outtieDrake

    outtieDrake Active Member Full Member

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    Dec 17, 2009
    UFC CHEAT SHEET: THINGS TO LOOK FOR:
    Better height:
    better reach:
    better leg reach:
    better frame:
    Better bjj:
    Better wrestler:
    Better boxing:
    better kicking:
    Better clinch:
    better movement:
    better defense:
    Better experience:
    Better opp wins:
    Better chin/durable:
    Better ko wins:
    better submissions wins:
    Training camps:

    Jiu jitsu belt color / level:
    wrestling credentials / level:
    striking in other combat sports:


    likely high ground ctrl:
    Likely high reversals:
    likely high knockdowns:
    Likely high takedowns:
    likely high significant strikes:
    likely knockout:
    likely submission:
    Likely winner:

    Summary:

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    Parlay betting
    Bovada
    Draftkings -sportsbook
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    UFC on ESPN 20 Odds

    Neil Magny -150
    Michael Chiesa +130

    Mounir Lazzez -115
    Warlley Alves -115

    Isaac Villanueva -150
    Vinicius Moreira +130

    Viviane Araujo -225
    Roxanne Modafferi +190

    Lerone Murphy -225
    Douglas Silva de Andrade +190

    Tyson Nam -135
    Matt Schnell +105

    Ricky Simon -285
    Gaetano Pirrello +225

    Su Mudaerji -265
    Zarrukh Adashev +205

    Dalcha Lungiambula -350
    Markus Perez +260

    Jerome Rivera -125
    Francisco Figueiredo +105

    Mike Davis -300
    Mason Jones +250

    Manon Fiorot -110
    Victoria Leonardo -110

    Tom Breese -140
    Omari Akhmedov +120

    Umar Nurmagomedov -625
    Sergey Morozov +450
     
    Last edited: Jan 18, 2021
  2. outtieDrake

    outtieDrake Active Member Full Member

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    Dec 17, 2009
    Updating soon:
    Picks
    First pick

    1.Manon Fiorot -110 tko Karate black belt, three-time Karaté France national Champion, 12-0 in Muay Thai, two-time Muay Thai France national , and a purple belt in bjj. Victoria Leonardo has a purple belt too but I feel her standup is not up to par and lacks movement. She also lacks the wrestling credentials to take her down.

    2.Umar Nurmagomedov -625 wins Sub rear naked choke. Sambo wrestling background , trains at team eagle dagastan and AKA with cousin khabib, he outsizes his opponent slightly in reach and height. Has high variety of kicks. His Opponent, Sergey took a guy with a 5-2 record to the 4th round, I cant see him getting a finish on 12-0 Umar who is a good striker and good wrestler. And majority of Sergey's kos are tko ground and pound. He had his back Taken by Luan Fernandez 9-6.

    3.Omari Akhmedov +120 x Russian champion in pankration, 2x Russian champion hand-to-hand combat, Dagestan champion in Combat Sambo, lots of notablewins . He has two ko losses , last one was in 2016 tko on his feet when he was a welterweight,he's made much better improvement in his strking. Tom Breese is a British Junior champion in Freestyle wrestling. but uk wrestling is not as strong as russian , His hands are sharp and heavy and he got a 3 inch height advantage, but is terrible off his back as seen In the Brendon Allen fight.I can see Omari winning this if he takes him down , which he was able to take down Weidman a higher credential wrestler. This is a risky bet as Omari can be ko'ed, but he has overall better opp rating and more experience, He is a good underdog bet.

    4. Mason Jones +250-bjj black and judo , cage rage champion , both guys 3-0 in boxing, mason's grappling will secure him the win, either by sub or high ground control to decision.refernce to gilbert vs mike davis.

    5. Su Mudaeriji -265 Too much mma experience, Adachev has a 16-3 kb record but his opponents had very few fights. Adechev couldn't put away a 0-4 fighter away , Su will use his size and reach to earn him a ko or decision.

    6.Lerone Murphy barely gets hit and has superior hands and wrestling,SApM: 1.66 for Murphy and SApM for Adrade is 4.43

    7.Francisco Figueiredo +105 bjj blk belt, he can nulify Jerome's bjj. striking wise, Francisco is more comfortable with his boxing and utilizing the jab. he does take a lot of hits and Jerome has a good leg reach to keep him at bay, but Jerome has 0 kos and looks very timid in the boxing department, and cant take a punch, as shown in the tyson nam fight.

    8. Markus Perez- strong kicks, win on Ian Heinisch , was dominating his last fight with stron kicks when he decided to play with his food and threw some spinning attack and got caught.
    His opponent is very strong but also very slow and his hand speed is slow, good judo and decent ground control but Markus has good jits off back and can submit with his bjj brown belt. somewhat of a risky fight.

    9.Vinicius Moreira- bjj black and large size , if he gets him down its over. risky fight because he is chinny, and Ike has decent power. risky bet.

    10. Ricky Simon- his wrestling will secure him a ud via high ground ctrl. His opponent is a good thai boxer with devastating knees but dog s*** off his back. He's fought in the european circuit where the wrestling is weakest.

    11.Mounir Lazzez -115 explosive technical striker, ground game suspect , risky bet, But his opponent is not a takedown master , and his top ground ctrl is average at bellow 4 mins top.

    12.Viviane Araujo -225 more decorated striker with muay thai titles and a bjj and lutalivre black belt. size disadvantage but her opponent looks very green on her feet.

    13. Tyson Nam -135 tailor made for Matt, Scnell loses to strikers in the first round and is very chinny, Nam by ko..
    13.
     
    Last edited: Jan 20, 2021
  3. outtieDrake

    outtieDrake Active Member Full Member

    1,308
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    Dec 17, 2009
    Manon Fiorot win via tko

    Umar wins via submission rnc

    -1 mike davis

    Francisco ud

    10-2

    13. Michael Chiesa +130 ud via ground ctrl



    10-4 final.
     
    Last edited: Jan 20, 2021
  4. outtieDrake

    outtieDrake Active Member Full Member

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    Dec 17, 2009
    Fights analysis and betting risk.


    Dan Hooker- decent grnd ctrl better kick boxer than chandler, bjj purple . Good sprawls. better height and reach.CHandler is a world class fighter so an upset is possible.
    bet risk:high

    Movsar Evloev - ,more technical on feet and well balance grappling, 5 round fighter.
    Bet risk: med

    Zhalgas Zhumagulov/Amir/Draw- 5 round fighter with higher level wins, decent grappler and better hands.opp rating superior.Amir is very technical and can pull off a win too.toss up fight. 50/50 draw
    But i'm slighly leaning in AMir favor.
    Bet risk: high


    Makhmud Muradov- better hands, slight size advantage and more mma exp.decent wrestler and long win streak.
    Bet risk level : low

    Khalil Rountree- heavy handed, will go like the mike rodriguez fight.his opponent is very chinny.Rountree is not most consistant.
    Bet risk level : high

    Sarah Mcmann- via highground control. Sarah has striking holes and can lose on significant strikes, Pena has a win on Zingano who is a grapppler too.
    Bet risk: high

    Brad Tavares- Well balance, striking is better, good sprawl to keep Antonio off his bjj. But antonio is a world class bjj and can win with high ground ctrl or sub.
    Bet risk: high

    Arman Tsarukyan: Via high ground ctrl, this fight is a toss up fight Frevola , matt is a slight weaker version of Arman. But still a even on the feet. Arman has better fight IQ
    underdog.
    Bet risk: med


    Amanda Ribas: bjj black and decent standup with nice kicks, she'll win with high grnd control. Marina has a decent 12-1 record but has bad getups, tends to pull guard and not move, her sprawls are also not up to par.
    bet risk:low


    Joanne Calderwood World, European and British champion in Muay Thai, better striker than Eye.
    Bet risk: med


    Conor- his previous brackground in amatuer boxing and pro boxing with mayweather put him in better
    understanding of utilizing range. His performance vs Khabib is a lot better than Dustin's fight. I actually think Conor is underated in bjj, this will be striking war and conor wins this again.


    bet risk: med

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  5. PhillyPhan69

    PhillyPhan69 Obsessed with Boxing Full Member

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    Dec 20, 2006
    good post. The fight I am most interested in is the Chandler vs Hooker fight. I like chandler to pull the upset, but should be a fun card either way.
     
  6. outtieDrake

    outtieDrake Active Member Full Member

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    Dec 17, 2009
    I have him on a single bet, he is a good underdog, Hooker has a habbit of over committing to his strikes and getting hit a lot. Chanler is a good high level underdog going to make another parlay with him after rountree burned all my parlays
     
    PhillyPhan69 likes this.