Ortiz KO Round 1-4. Hurd KO Round 3-6. Joyce KO Round 1-3. Barriga UD wide but Licona isn't bad so maybe it will be closer. Lowe KO Arreola KO Rodriguez UD Williams KO Guerrero KO Marsellos Wilder KO
My picks. Hurd KO 6 Welborn. Ortiz UD Kauffman. Joyce KO 4 Hanks. Barriga UD Licona. Guerrero UD Mann. Williams KO 7 Castro. Arreola UD Smith.
Arreola KO 2 Smith Marenzo Smith kind of looks the part and has a bit of power - but he's no threat. He also folds pretty quick once he's hit hard (which isn't hard to do). Assuming Arreola hasn't lost his stomach & heart for the ring - he'll have Smith outta there fast. Don't be surprised if Arreola is named as Joyce's next opponent...as it's time for Arreola to be cashed-out for good. Williams KO 6 Castro Castro is a decent trialhorse fighter who's likely fading a bit. I don't think Williams is quite champ level - but he'll have Castro out of there without too much drama. Hurd KO 6 Welborn I don't think Wellborn is much of a threat at this stage, but Hurd will be feeling out his shoulder for a few rounds before going to work. Guerrero UD Mate It was painful to watch a ring-rusty Figueroa destroy Robert last year. Guerrero wasn't the most skillful guy to start with - and his hand speed and chin are gone now. Having seen the boxers who have beat Mate - I'll pick him to win - but if Robert over-extends himself a shock stoppage by Mate isn't impossible. Barriga Licona No opinion - I don't follow this division closely-enough. Joyce KO 2 Hanks Cashing-out time for Hanks and Mike Borao. Hanks is an uneducated plodder (Joyce is a plodder, too, but he's a bigger, stronger, and better-educated one) who was exposed for a lack of talent by Ruiz Jr and a lack of skill by Derric Rossy. Hanks didn't appear to be in great shape at 247 lbs - an indication he's probably looking to lie down. He can't stay out of Joyce's way...so he'll either be backed up by Joyce or toe-to-toe with him quickly. Either way - he's quickly slept. Ortiz KO 4 Kauffman Kauffman isn't coming to lie down (229 lbs is a good weight for him and remember Travis is going to carrying around lots of loose skin that makes him look worse than he is). Ortiz is at an age where he's surely starting to slip and for the first time in his career - he actually had some mileage put on his clock. But Kauffman is badly outranged here - and he'll need to work inside to do anything against Oritz. It won't work any better for Travis than it did for Jennings. Factor in the fact that Kauffman's own motor isn't great (see the Arreola and Manour bouts) and he has had plenty of injuries - it's pretty hard to see him taking a serious fight to Ortiz after 5-6 rounds and benefiting from his opponent's age. And I don't think he will even get that far before he's caught inside or bombed-out at long range. Fury (Wide) UD Wilder Don't let the loose skin fool you - Fury is in good shape at 256 lbs as long as those couple years of drug/food abuse haven't destroyed his body. Wilder isn't the hardest fighter to outbox - and given Fury's ability to be at the right place at the right time and get his opponent off balance - I see this being a wide, ugly points loss for Deontay Wilder. I fully expect Fury to put Wilder down a couple times by simply catching him badly off balance and he'll have enough in the tank to stay out of harm's way in the championship rounds. And as I've said elsewhere - nobody better look for the WBC to come to Wilder's aid on the cards - they'll make more money with Fury and they know it.
