Understanding Deontay Wilder

Indeed. A-side advantage makes a big difference, even in subtle ways. Most champions in history have been very reluctant to travel to hostile places for this reason.

 

"if he waits until next year he will be too faded to be a threat to even a decent fringe contender"

Hyperbole but in principle you're right. He's not getting better and could be compromised going forward. He needs to decide what he's going to do before the end of the year.

A lot of factors are not in his favour:

1. Winless since November 2019

2. Will have only completed 10 rounds in the previous 32 months and have been inactive for 12 months

3. Accrued a lot of injuries throughout his career, including a broken left eardrum in his last 2 fights

4. Will be about to turn or have just turned 37

5. Made a massive amount of money in his last two fights

6. Coming off brutal back to back KO defeats after an unbeaten run spanning 12 years, 43 fights and 10 consecutive heavyweight title defences over 5 years

7. Articulated feelings of diminished motivation, conspiracies against him and has contemplated retirement

 

"he has to land a big punch and ko the other man"

He's proved this wrong numerous times now, it's ignorant to parrot that line at this point. If you'd said that pre-2015 there wouldn't have been strong evidence to contradict the claim but since then he's proven that he can thoroughly outbox a champion and contenders (Stiverne 1, Duhaupas, Arreola) and was competitive with highly skilled operators (Ortiz, Fury 1) if he could land KD's, which he almost always did.

Wilder's advantages over Joshua: explosive one-punch power, speed, reflexes, agility, height, reach, stamina, chin, recovery, focus, patience, composure, confidence, heart, determination, hunger, fighting instincts, dirty boxing, ferocity, fear factor, experience, angles of attack, awkwardness, unpredictability, unconventionality, ease of underestimation

Frazier did not have a "much better chin" than Wilder: he had a far inferior chin to Wilder, fighting in a much smaller and less scientifically advanced era, managing to get dropped numerous times and stopped early. Frazier and Tyson were also more hittable than Wilder, so it's highly questionable whether they have better defences. Chisora may move his head more than Wilder but he definitely does not have a better defence, in practice it's vastly inferior.

Tua was never a world champion so I didn't mention him. Some guy said that Wilder might be fringe top 10 at some point in the 90's but he definitely wouldn't be a champion. I responded with a list of 90's non-WBO HW champions who Wilder would be favoured to beat, which is most of them. Wilder's attributes would have been totally unique at the time, it's foolish to think his superior speed, power, length, strange dimensions, unorthodox style and willingness to die in the ring wouldn't give him a good chance against anyone, especially fighters with suspect chins or defences.

 

All fighters at this level (and at much lower levels) have teams responsible for coming up with gameplans. The point of this post is to explain the mechanics behind the strategy. There's a lot more to it than Wilder getting outboxed (which was rare: no one came close to winning a decision aside from Fury) and then landing a lucky punch, which is what many seem to think.

"as he himself is vulnerable"

He never got KO'd by a McCall, Rahman, Puritty, Sanders, Brewster or Ruiz. He also never retired with an injury (closed eye, broken right hand, torn biceps) so he's not that vulnerable.

"If Wilder had the skills to out box or the smarts to adapt and out think an opponent who is out boxing him, he would"

This has it backwards: Wilder has the attributes to win fights without taking risks. Most fighters have to throw a lot of punches (increasing risk of injury) and take a lot of shots to win fights. Most would say that Jennings is more skilled than Wilder: he did a better job of outboxing Szpilka to the naked eye. But Jennings took a lot more punishment while outboxing Szpilka, whereas Wilder was winning anyway and then KO'd him cold.

 

You can't be serious in naming Parker and Whyte as "top heavyweights" that Wilder has been "protected from" when he's fought No.1 Fury three times, who showed Whyte his level. Whyte was made to look like trash, couldn't land a clean punch. And Whyte battered Parker, who is also Chisora level.

One of Ruiz's coaches has been quoted as saying Ruiz will be KO'd cold against Wilder, the other admitted that Wilder was "dangerous" even while training Ruiz. Part of me hopes Ruiz does get past 43+ year old Ortiz so we can actually see this shocking mismatch. A few fights for you to watch:

Wilder-Liakhovich, Ruiz-Liakhovich
Stiverne-Arreola 1 & 2, Wilder-Stiverne 1 & 2
Wilder-Arreola, Ruiz-Arreola

 

Why? Wilder would be favoured against most of the 90's champions and he could very well KO'd Lewis cold just like those fringe contenders did.

 

When was mental and chinny Golota a champion?

Some of the 90's (non-WBO) HW champs: Douglas, Moorer, McCall, 45/46 year old Foreman, Seldon, Bruno, Moorer

Wilder decisions crackhead McCall, 45+ 260 lbs Foreman either loses by decision or KO and Wilder reliably KO's the rest of these. They constitute a majority of the recognised alphabet champions in the 90's.

Bowe never faced any punchers besides the small and glass chinned Hide, he or his team would probably duck Wilder. Lewis got one-punch KO'd by shorter, slower, less powerful fringe contenders (both times with right hand's). Tyson struggled with taller heavyweights, got brutally KO'd by a fringe contender, was battered twice by a former 190 pounder, went the distance with five fighters (Tillis, Green, Smith, Tucker, Ruddock) in or around his prime (despite being an aggressive pressure fighter) and went 10 rounds with Ribalta. Holyfield was dropped and badly hurt by a journeyman, dropped 3 times and stopped by Bowe, dropped by John Ruiz and dropped and stopped by a MW. All of these are interesting, competitive matchups.