Usyk coming in at 230 lbs will be a mistake

Usyk's optimum fighting weight is what he was coming in at down at CW and his optimum weight for HW is what he was coming in at for the WSB

Usyk 211lbs - Nistor 233lbs
Usyk 213lbs - Modugno 277lbs
Usyk 210lbs - Majidov 235lbs
Usyk 211lbs - Joyce 238lbs
Usyk 209lbs - Brechlin 263lbs
Usyk 208lbs - Fa 246lbs

I don't know if Fa's weight is correct there as he's an enormous man and he weighed 263lbs pounds for next fight after Usyk just two months later. It could be correct though.


The irony is Usyk stopped the two heaviest guys he fought in the WSB. Modugno was dropped twice and stopped in two rounds despite having 64lbs on Usyk and weighing 277lbs and Brechlin's corner pulled him out in the third after the ref had given him his third standing count. Brechlin, who lasted the full five round distance against big punching behemoth Hrgovic and the even bigger 260lb behemoth and absolutely murderous punching Arslanbek Makhmudov, had 54lbs on Usyk. In fact, Brechlin lost a SD to Makhmudov.

So why bulk up? It's because of the Chisora fight. Thing is Chisora causes almost everyone serious problems with that strength, power, toughness, relentless aggression and engine of his and no other HW out there fights like him and is able to replicate his relentless nonstop aggression. Even if you're a huge punching 250-260lb giant it's nigh on impossible to keep him off of you and he's a difficult style match up for Usyk.

Look at how fast Usyk's reflexes and reaction times and how quick and agile he was back in the WSB (see vid below). He slipped punches, moved his head more and slipped and counter punched a lot more too. Even when he was standing right in front of his opponents they couldn't hit him or hit him with anything big and if they did catch him he wasn't phased by their shots at all. He looked possessed, totally fearless and it was his biggest opponents who looked intimidated and like they were the smaller men despite them being much bigger.

And Majidov, Joyce and Nistor were elite SHWs and serious bangers. Those three are a very tough out to draw for any fighter in one season.

Majidov won bronze at the Olympics the previous year, losing a controversial decision by a solitary point to the reigning Olympic champion Cammarelle who went on to be robbed in the final against AJ, losing on countback 18-18 +. Majidov was also the reigning world amateur champion and would go on to win it again later that year and for the third time in 2017

Nistor had knocked AJ senseless and stopped him in three rounds two years earlier and had beaten 2 x world amateur champion and 2 x Olympic silver medalist Russo a couple of months earlier in the WSB

And Joyce was coming off a win over the #1 ranked Hrgovic in his previous fight a month earlier and would go on to win bronze at the world amateur championships two years later and Olympic silver the following year after that and it should've been gold because he was robbed.

I've been saying this for ages but he looks very different to the Usyk of today and recent years. He looks like a maniacal 210lb mongoose here. You can see it more if you watch the actual fights.

This content is protected

 

Usyk set a pretty fast pace against Briedis, Hunter and Glowacki. Bellew just had a trickier style and he knew he'd gas, so he took his time, and didn't take any risks. Regardless, that's besides the point, even setting a slow pace that he amps up around the 4th, will still be enough to gas AJ out.

This content is protected

This content is protected

This content is protected

 

That's another thing about him bulking up. Have you ever seen Usyk tired in a fight before? He has amazing stamina. Even at 217lbs against Chisora his stamina was very impressive because the mental pressure alone from having the teak-tough 255lb Chisora coming at you nonstop hurling bombs for 12 rounds would have most fighters blowing out of their ass long before the final round, especially in a ring that size, and Usyk was clearly feeling that pressure from the get-go. Usyk had to constantly keep moving for 12 rounds on top of that but even then he still looked fresh. But with even more muscle at a reputed 230lbs it could be different.

 

It was a quick pace for sure but, as said, his stamina is amazing, and he was just significantly fleeter of hand and foot, with really quick reflexes and reaction times back then and an absolute nightmare for these SHW behemoths to deal with. Too quick, agile, mobile, and with super sharp reflexes. He had the speed, agility, and reflexes of a lightweight.

 

I disagree. Usyk is very organised and quick. It's true he will be slowed down if he comes in at 225 say, but it's also true that he has speed in reserve - in other words he is faster by a given amount. He can afford to sacrifice some of that in order to prevent his being ragdolled so badly and to prevent AJ just walking through him, if the corner have calculated that is a worry.

The size influences the gameplan and vice-versa. As long as they don't expect him to dance and counter for 12 with the extra weight, that's fine.

 

To win this fight, Usyk has to sit down at some stage. They aren't turning up to lose a narrow decision - 7-5 either way is going to be 8-4 to Joshua, we know that - so the blue-sky gameplan calls for a) total domination in boxing which 215lbs would be targetted at but I dont' think the expect or b) beating AJ up a bit, say, in round 10 when he's tired and Usyk is still in nick.

Now, everyone has a plan until they get hit and all that there, so bluesky plans are rarely seen in the ring, but of those two plans I like the second one better.

 

Yeah it is and I've been hoping to see some footage of Usyk sparring for months to see how he looked and how much the added weight and muscle has slowed him down.

If the super agile, quick and razor sharp reflexes and reaction times 210lb maniacal mongoose Usyk who fought in the WSB was still around today I'd feel way more confident of him pulling it off. AJ panics when you take him out of his comfort zone and pace and he would have great difficulty catching that version of Usyk and Usyk would just take a step back or to the side when he leads and make him pay with lightening quick counters. But this slower dulled reflexes and reaction times version is getting hit a lot more than he used to.

It's imperative Usyk has the speed advantage and a noticeable one at that for this fight and I'm not convinced that's going to be the case with this version, especially if he comes in even close to as heavy as we're lead to believe he well. If he does have a noticeable speed advantage AJ's in trouble providing Usyk doesn't walk into a big shot and get caught with those speedy heavy combos of AJ's when stunned or hurt. Usyk's biggest weakness for me has always been overconfidence and his willingness to take the kind of risks few others are. He's completely fearless and that has a down side too.

 

This is the best we've got until Saturday night

Usyk, as I feared, looks much slower to me

This content is protected