Looking at this H2H match up that us boxing fans want and deserve, here are my keys to win for both men: Key things for Fury: 1. Right hand - the straight right hand is the best weapon vs a southpaw. Fury must use this often and effectively. If he stuns Usyk, he needs to follow up with it. In recent fights, Fury has shown a potent right hand. He needs to use this just as effectively. Fury needs to mix up both the lead right hand and setting up the right hand with his jab to keep Usyk guessing. 2. Body punching- While Usyk has improved vs body punching compared to his amateur days, he is still a little vulnerable here. Fury needs to dig to his body at least a few times every round. Joshua was not consistent with his body punching even though he had his moments. 3. Jab - the jab vs a southpaw is less effective than vs an orthodox fighter but as seen in the Joshua-Usyk fights, you can still have some success vs a southpaw. Fury needs to be authoritative with the jab instead of slapping with it. 4. Clinching- goes without saying that Fury will have 40-50 pounds on Usyk and will overpower him in clinches. For our sake as fans, lets hope the referee does not allow excessive clinching and leaning. From Fury's perspective though, he needs to clinch the smaller man. 5. Uppercuts- A pretty good weapon vs a shorter fighter if timed correctly. Fury needs to use it when/is Usyk is leaning in. This also provides Fury with offensive versatility which makes it more likely for him to land his best shots. Keys for Usyk: 1. Footwork- Usyk will have to move constantly and make himself as small as possible. Make the bigger man bend down to punch you. This both reduces his power (slightly) and adversely impacts his endurance. 2. Punching variation- in the two fights vs Joshua, Usyk used his jab and straight left to dominate Joshua. In the 10th round of the second fight, Usyk unleashed a variety of punches such as right hooks and left uppercuts to stagger Joshua. Fury is too durable for Usyk to keep off him just with the simple Jab-Left hand combo. Usyk will have to utilize his full variety of punches such as right hooks and left uppercuts to stagger Fury and keep Fury off him (Yes Usyk can't ko Fury but he can stun him). 3. Body punching- Wilder showed an effective body punching strategy vs Fury in fight 3 before abandoning it. Usyk will have to aim to land 10-15 good body punches per round vs the big man and vary this with punches to the head to keep Fury guessing. 4. Avoidance of clinching- don't be afraid of taking the knee if being clinched excessively. Otherwise, Fury will drain his endruance. Overall, Usyk will have to move well for 12 straight rounds, punch in combination, throw enough hard shots to keep Fury off him, punch in combinations, work the body, and make himself as small as possible. The lesson from the Cunningham fight isn't Fury being green but rather how Fury doesn't like small fighters since he has to reach down to punch then. Usyk will have to fight at a higher intensity than vs Joshua since he is facing a man who is more confident in his chin.
The main key for Fury is to bring some salt and pepper maybe some ketchup because a whole Usyk without condiments will be tasteless. After this bout is over the only thing people will say is Usyk was a cruiserweight and too small and AJ was always a bum. Fury won't get his credit. The cycle continues.
Fury uses his size extremely well, and has a great gas tank for a man his size. Usyk will have some success, he’s too good not to. But Fury will impose his size and it will tire Usyk out as the fight goes on. I think Fury gets him out of there in the final third.
Fury will just run over the top of him, Usyk does not have the concussive power in his punches to make Fury honest. I'd even go so far as to say that if Fury lands cleanly on Usyk it will be a one punch KO. AJ barely landed a clean shot on Usyk over the two fights and you could see how terrified Usyk was of getting tagged. The big difference is that AJ seemed totally incapable of wanting to take shots to the head in order to get big blows in. Fury will show Usyk little respect on that front. The only chance Usyk has is to be on a motorbike all night.
No doubt Usyk is fast and moves a lot and is also highly technical. However, there's a pattern in the way he moves and if Fury sees it, this could be a problem for Usyk. Add the fact Fury has enough tank for 12 rounds at high pace and the fact he can move fast and in a non-traditional way, is also technical, adding his height and reach - this seriously is hard for Usyk. I am not calling the latter small, a man of 190 cm. and 100 kg. is no small by any mean, he's just seriously smaller than Fury. I am not saying he has no chance - he does have, but let's admit it - Fury is an obstacle for everyone even if we go back in history. The problem is that Usyk is not a puncher neither, so to hurt him and possibly win via KO/TKO. Give it 50:50 in their chance then every fan can change it a bit into 60:40 either way, but not more than that.
Take AJ, Chisora, Briedes make a test tube baby out of them and stick it on PEDS and you still don't have an organism that is 10% of the fighter that Tyson Fury is. One day people will understand Fair play to Usyk. He shouldn't even be in this race but he is and people believe in him, he is a GOAT cruiserweight but he's about to step in with a GOAT heavyweight, the next gen heavyweight and people might get easily confused because of Fury's up and down performances but when he has a man in front of him who people actually believe in he will turn him to pulp. It will be a total obliteration job. 4 rounds is all Usyk has in him before Fury starts to chew him to pieces.
Fury needed an accumulation of punches to tko Wilder (not to mention Cunningham, Chisora etc.) but is going to one shot Usyk? Watch round 10 of the second Joshua fight. Joshua landed a super clean right hand and Usyk just took it.
