how do you know that ortiz chin is not that good? His last knock down came from a guy who although lost 12 fights prior to Ortiz, had 31 wins 25 coming by way of ko.
Aranoutis has trouble pulling the trigger, and I think Ortiz will overwhelm him. Late TKO or wide UD.
i know ortiz gets a bit wreckless when he is on the attack. he did show major poise in his last fight though. i think he's been knocked down another two times before that as well.