I think it's about 60/40 in Joshua's favor now. I also think that both have too many flaws to reign for a long time, whoever wins it.
I’ll be rooting for Wilder, giving just a hair’s breadth of favor towards Joshua. But I think we should all just pray for no controversy. No British stoppages. No fight ending cuts. No freak injuries. No bad scorecards, or even scorecards at all. Etc.
That was my original take (prior to March) and I still believe it's a valid take. I'm just less convinced than I previously was that it will play out that way.
It's tough to say. I would be inclined to favor either guy against anyone else not named Fury, and I'd do so without hesitation. But that doesn't mean I think either guy is unbeatable, either. They both have plenty of flaws and mental lapses. But to me, this makes for (hopefully) exciting times ahead in the heavyweight landscape.
Yep. And it's one of those situations where, I can see it being a really easy fight for either of them, or an extremely difficult match up for both of them.
In situations like this where there are two punchers, I tend to always lead to the more superior and "technical" fighter. Think G-Man vs Julian Jackson.
Great video Rummy. I just woke up, so this may be rambling. I always leaned Wilder but with little confidence, but after the Takam, Ortiz and Parker matches, I solidly lean Wilder 60/40 maybe even wider. Due to what I covered in my thread about the HW division, the old attacking AJ is long gone, he'll be cautious from here on out, he has no desire to take any risks, because a KO loss in his mind and probably in reality will deal a massive blow to his reputation and aura of invincibility in this fickle day and age. And while yes, Parker has far better fundamentals, and is more defensively responsible and elusive than Wilder, Parker's jab and movement basically took away AJ's right hand, and Wilder will compensate for his lack of defense and decent movement, with his incredibly stiff jab and jab alone, which may actually be enough to hurt AJ. AJ will be apprehensive as hell to engage or probably even let his hands go, out of fear of Wilder landing one of his crazy windmilling unorthodox shots on him. Wilder's chin is sturdy enough to soak up a few shots, but I'm not sure if AJ's is, if he lands a straight right on him like he landed on Stiverne, that may be all it takes. Regardless, I think Wilder will land his money punch precisely because he's more willing to let his hands go, and the post-Wlad AJ is terrified to, and I don't think any ref in the world can save him. When Wilder starts going all out, his forward momentum and speed will be too much for some old crotchety ref to blunt.
Both have hearts of lions, both are diamonds in the rough, I think Wilder will come out victorious due to his sadistic nature. Win via KO, Wilder.
Going to share my thoughts prior to reading other post so forgive me if I repeat anything already stated. I have to give Wilder the edge every so slightly only because of his natural athleticism and his total disregard for his own safety when it comes to his crazy offense which leaves him WIDE open for a counter punch . How do you train to counter someone who just throws boxing 101 basics out the window and comes at you like he is line dancing on Soul Train or trying to create natural energy as a wild Windmill??? If AJ can work on his timing in order to make the unpredictable very predictable then he has a great chance to counter and stop Wilder but that is a more difficult task because there is no blueprint for the boxing antics that Wilder displays inside the ring. Will be a great fight but still give the edge to Wilder as he is the RISK taker. Great job Rummy
Sound analysis. I too am on the fence about the outcome of this fight. The venue could play a factor and I think it's a foregone conclusion that Wilder is traveling and Joshua is not leaving his backyard. So I accept it as a given that the fight will be on British soil. But I think an even more critical factor could be the third man in the ring. Team Wilder should use their venue concession and even concede on the judges to take a firm stand on a securing a seasoned referee from North America with extensive championship fight experience who takes a laizze faire "let them fight" approach. Especially after watching Giuseppe Quartarone's bizarre interventions in the Joshua/Parker fight. Team Joshua benefits with the advantage of an emotional crowd, it's impact on judging and bask in the home comforts to it's fullest. Win-Win. As far as the fight itself: Wilder's route for victory is to take risks, create awkward angles, and use his superior athleticism to manufacture opportunities. I believe Wilder has the superior stamina should force Joshua into an 'aggressive" defense. He also needs to take note of the tactics Parker used to neutralize Joshua's inside uppercut. Roll the head and bring forearm under chin. The route for victory for Joshua is to exercise caution, use patience and stick behind his intelligent jab. Get this fight slowed down to a crawl and get it to the scorecards by using his superior basic fundamentals. I believe Wilder can be outsmarted and lulled into gameplay that plays into Joshua's hands. But Joshua better improve his lateral movement. His pulling straight out is a serious flaw. I agree the fight needs to made sooner than later but I think there is a real possibility that this fight won't happen in 2018. When it happens I give a slight advantage to Joshua.
I like your breakdown with the “Keys to Victory “ for each guy. I agree AJ needs to set the pace like Ortiz did for sooooo many rounds that the fight was literally a crawl. The issue becomes that Wilder is so unpredictable and breaks pace when you least expect it IMO. Wilder also is borderline ego maniac so he is not going to allow a snail pace forever, like with Ortiz, as he will eventually break that up by jumping in or even on AJ to rattle the momentum of the fight I still favor Wilder but time will tell.
You could be right, and I do think you've hit on something I hadn't really considered regarding AJ being a bit more gun shy post-Wlad (perhaps not unlike the way Mosley became gunshy and was never the same after his first bout with Vernon).