Viewpoints on Hopkins/Calzaghe...

Here are the reasons Hopkins has a chance, moving from intangibles to the ring.


1 - Enzo Calzaghe. Enzo is a smart tactitian, he is also exactly the right man to handle Joe. In Wales. Now he's handling him in Vegas. Now, according to Boxing Monthly, Calzaghe has been speaking to Ricky Hatton and his people and certain adjustments have been made - where they will stay, awerness where the air conditioning is concerned. But still Enzo - essentially an old fashioned man perhaps without the patience associated with a more modern camp boss - who is bossing his first camp in the US. Can he control the camp in the same way? Will he be able to put his hands on the things that he needs in the same way as he did in Wales? Can he control the focus of the camp in the same way as he did in Wales? Can he work properly and with patience against those who may be working against him in these things on behalf of the Hopkins camp? You never, ever hear of a camp going badly before the fight. There's a chance that we might hear that it didn't go as well as it might have in Wales, afterwards.

2 - The Weight. People have tried to take away Hopkins win over Tarver and it's a disgrace. They say that Tarver looked terrible against Joe and that anyone could have beaten him. This desipite the fact that he looked good beating Jones 8 months before and just fine destroying Woods the other night. Hopkins is proven at the weight. Joe is not. I personally believe that Calzaghe will be just as good at the weight as hew ould have been at 168, and there is a chance he will be better - he says he will be better - but he is uproven at the weight. If Joe finds himself struggling for one of the miriad of reasons that exsist at a new weight, at an advanced age, that can become a serious factor.

3 - Hopkins is under Calzaghe's skin. That's never happened to Joe before. He's been bossed at the various press conferences and in my opinion he's been nervous of a Hopkins attack on his person, too. How will this affect the fight plan?

4 - The Hopkins Fight Plan. What is Hopkins fight plan? Well, we don't know. So far all that has come out of the Hopkins camp is bull****. Freddy Roach: "We are going for the knockout." Well no, they are not. You can't KO Joe Calzaghe, especially if you are 43. Furthermore, Hopkins: "That's what [the result of the fight] is going to come down to...who can change the other guys style and get him out of his comfort zone..." No. Calzaghe proved against Kessler he can adapt to what he is experiencing and bring out a plan B every bit as good as his plan A. So this is not true. Calzaghe's comfort zone is broader and wider than Hopkins indicates here. But Hopkins knows this. His plan B and C will be crucial. Given that he is the best tactitian and general in the game, they may be THE crucial factor. In my opinion Calzaghe is second, in the world. The difference may be crucial.

5 - The Calzaghe fight plan - can he be drawn out of it if it is working? Hopkins is a spoiler and a difficult man to share the ring with. If Calzaghe's is winning with his original fight plan Hopkins will turn to the dark arts. Remember Calzaghe against Bika? He was made terribly uncomfortable against a foe who, compared to Hopkins, is limited. This is a crucial factor, and will be the final test for Calzaghe. If he can solve this, he can solve Hopkins. If he is drawn into Hopkins world, SD Hopkins.

6 - Calzaghe's hands & punching technique. Calzaghe: "My left hand is actually sore to the touch now. I have to make adjustments because of this." Duke Mackenzie: "I'm going for Hopkins...Over here Joe gets away with plenty...In American I beleive his percieved slapping could bring point deductions and Calzaghe will turn into an out of control windmill." Remember: Joe fights outside the rules when he slaps. Referees and judges might not like it.

7 - "Hopkins has a great record against Southpaws." He does indeed. 11-0. In my opinion this is because:

8 - "Hopkins is great at taking away his opponents best weapon." This is the crux, and he will show it again. However, I dont' agree that this is Calzaghe's speed, or even his workrate - I think it's his composite awkwarndess. The compounding of his southpaw stance with these other factors. Hopkins wil solve this awkwardness in the same manner he solves southpaws - with footwork and balance.

9 - Joe Calzaghe: "I beat people with speed." He does indeed. Now for the newsflash: Joe has slowed down. How much? Not much in the Kessler fight. But what if he drops of again? By, say, the same amount as he dropped off in between Lacey and Kessler? If that happens, Joe will lose a decision. If Hopkins has slowed down a bit? Doesn't matter.

10 - Hopkins best punch is the one Calzaghe is most vulnerable too. The right hand counter down the pipe.

11 - Hopkins is one of the best counter-punchers to have ever breathed. I believe this. I also believe that Joe's jab is counterable. Joe has a great jab, but he leans back a tiny bit after throwing it sometimes. Vulnerable. Also, when his defence is offence, often - he throws a bunch of punches if he is tagged, and these punches often don't have a lot on them. Vulnerable. Hopkins: "He comes exactly as I want him to come. Straight forward, busy."

Having said all of this - I favour Calzaghe

But some people overstate the case. I bet my card will be something like 8-4, 7-5. But if some of the above goes Hopkins way - and it might - and if Hopkins scores a flash KD in round 3 and Joe panics, don't be astonished to see the judges scorecards read differently. And if two of the them read for still the Ring's light heavyweight champion of the world, don't be that surprised.

 

And he rellies more heavily on speed than the older man.