I see this as a very close and technical fight but at the end of the day, I like the versatility of Ward to win out. We all know what Hill's game was which was to use his jab and win outside but a guy with the amateur pedigree that Ward has and more importantly, the physicality it will be tough for Hill to do that for 12 rounds. I think Ward makes this an ugly and physical affair and he ultimately prevails with a UD.
Hill is just as strong if not stronger than Ward, and, has an advantage in speed. I also think Hill is the better boxer. Absent a hometown decision in Oakland, I will go with Hill by close, but , unanimous decision.
Not one I'd bet on. It depends on whether Ward can make this a sustained, physically rough fight. Conversely, if Hill can keep this a boxing match, he'd be apt to take a decision.
Hill is a belt holder, not an elite guy, and whilst he could box, he wasn’t the best at making adjustments or changing the gameplan, which is something the elite guys like Ward can do. Hill couldn’t make adjustments mid fight which was evident against Hearns, Hearns was nearly 30lbs above his starting weight and was certainly vulnerable at 175lbs and whilst he was hard to outbox, anyone who could impose themselves (to a decent level) could beat Hearns and Hill showed that he couldn’t make the adjustments and change the gameplan mid fight, which is something that elite guys like Ward can do. Kovalev wasn’t the best at making adjustments or changing the gameplan either, but the difference is that he didn’t need to in the first fight, because Ward would have to get close to have success, but Kovalev being the bigger, more powerful man and better at range, was able to be on the front foot and keep the fight at long range as Ward knew he couldn’t try to rush Kovalev too often for fear of being caught on the way in, and the fact Ward was even able to have some success with it and even stop Kovalev in the rematch (albeit controversially) is a testament to his skills. The difference is that Hill would need to make adjustments unlike Kovalev, since Hill can’t keep Ward off like Kovalev did, he’d be forced to contend with Ward up close and he simply didn’t have the variety, as was proven in the Hearns fight, to change his gameplan. Against Hill, Ward would know that he could rush Hill far more often than Kovalev as he doesn’t have the right skillset to time power punches when someone attacks, then when Ward is close, he would overwhelm Hill with clinch work to create space for punches, using his spare arm, then tying back up when it suits him. He’d be able to rush Hill more often since he doesn’t have the threat Kovalev has, then when he is close, while Kovalev isn’t the best up close, he’s better than Hill IMO and if Ward can get the better of Kovalev up close, he can certainly get the better of Hill up close, and on top of that, he’ll be able to get close more often. The only question is, could Hill’s movement prevent Ward from getting up close as much as the threat of Kovalev’s power prevented Ward from attempting to get close? And I very much doubt it. Ward wins on a 116-112 type scorecard.
In a decision bout, follow the money. This is a follow the money kind of bout & the money and hype and boxing machine was not with Virgil Hill.
