Wallin will win

I'm calling it.

Originally I picked AJ and AJ at his best should win v Otto at his best.

But I can't help but think AJ looks nervous as ****, constantly trying to put on this weird stoic persona one moment then lashing out at guys like Miller the next. The man has some serious mental demons.

Just look at this answer from the open workout:

"How do you think it will go on Saturday night?"

AJ: "I need to win and, God willing, what will be will be."

Acknowledges the pressure he's under, then gives a completely non-committal answer, invokes God, but then seems on the fence as to whether he's even on his side.

"I think there'll be blood, bruising [gulps], yea blood bruises, it'll be tough, it'll be good though."

Doesn't attribute the blood and bruises to Wallin, implying he seems to believe there's hurt in store for him. He looks like he's literally imagining himself getting beat-up giving this answer, I couldn't imagine Fury, Wilder, Usyk, or any of the other top heavies saying anything of the sort.

He couldn't even look at the interviewers in the grand arrivals ceremony...

LIVE Day of Reckoning Grand Arrivals: Joshua v Wallin & Wilder v Parker (youtube.com) go to 1:42:20

Wallin on the other hand looks very confident to me.

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AJ hasn't faced anyone decent since Usyk where he got schooled twice and had a mental breakdown in the ring and has looked broadly unconvincing v Franklin and Helenius guys who barely crack the top 50 heavies.

Wallin is levels above both of those guys and clearly believes it.

It's also being completely overlooked that Wallin rocked Fury in the 12th and rocked Gassiev (can't remember the round - 7th maybe), which indicates to me he has more than enough power to take out AJ.

I'm picking Wallin to win and win by late stoppage/quitallity.

Looking forward to Wilder v Wallin in March guys!

Post fight:

Remind me never to trust my gut again and just go with evidence from actual performances.

I stand by the analysis, Wallin was confident going in and AJ was not. It turns out the power of belief alone is not enough to win a fight!

Despite the confidence going in, Wallin suddenly looked very tense and 'skittish' once the fight started which was interesting. AJ adopted a low guard and looked pretty relaxed, particularly as we got out of the first round.

A good performance from AJ, I'd like to see him in with Hrgo next, or Zhang, rather than Wilder, who looked pretty poor/disinterested.

 

The London one is online, you'll find it on Youtube.

It's a scrappy fight in a small ring. AJ wins fairly clearly but given the age of the two guys at the time, Wallin is 19, AJ is 21, it's probably fairly meaningless in the context of what will happen on Saturday.