It's a great, great matchup, maybe the best fight in boxing, but it's only a fight fans fight and doesn't belong and won't sell on ppv. Kovalev isn't as popular as GGG, and Ward's sabotaged the small following he used to have in being inactive. GGG-Lemieux had 150,000 buys, and Kovalev-Ward should be considered a wild success if it does more than that.
It wouldn't do well at this time, Kovalev is less popular than Genandy by quite a margin, he struggled with ticket sales in his last bout (granted it was against a poor opponent). Ward has pretty much no fanbase at the moment. I don't see it doing too well.
Ward fights negative and will be there to play keep away. He is not going to move and blast Kovalev with combos until Kovalev is battered beyond recgnition. No, Ward is there to hold, jab to the body and land 8 punches a round. I ask you who will pay for that? I will watch the replay sorry, 250, 000 maybe 300, 000 PPV at best and I may be reaching here.
Wards been too inactive for too long and HBOs failure to aggressively market Kovalev is a source of continuing bafflement to me - the guys personality and style should make him one of the easiest sells in the sport. As of now I can't imagine this doing very well as a PPV, for it to be a success HBO will need to put some serious effort in over the coming year. Both fighters would need to fight at least twice against decent LHW opponents (- no Smiths or Rohans for Andre :nono) ideally with at least one double header, and have their names continually brought up in broadcasts throughout the year. Pushing a narrative of the US Olympic hero against the savage Russian killer should still resonate well enough with the US public to help push this along, perhaps re-runs of Rocky IV in the build up could help. If - and it's a big if - all these things happen I think it could be a moderate success, but I'd still be very surprised to see it go beyond 200k.
It wouldn't do well, neither are big draws, which is why they are delaying the fight to build interest. Quite frankly at the moment it isn't a PPV fight, hopefully Ward gets his act together and ups his activity and beats a decent light heavy prior to facing Kovalev and Kovalev keeps doing what he has been doing and crushing everyone in the lead up to the fight.