What can both Alvarez and Mayweather take from the others previous bout...

What's Mayweather going to throw that Alvarez can specifically counter? Guerrero had minor success countering because Floyd used that specific punch in a specific way. I don't recall Guerrero being effective at countering anything else.

Will Alvarez attempt to implement some masterplan to feint and draw Floyd's counters, so he can try to counter the counters?

Marquez was mentioned because his specialty is countering with combos yet he was unable to do it on Floyd. You suggested taking Floyd's one shot for an opportunity to counter with a 3-4 punch combo. I've yet to see Alvarez counter with combos. His counters consist of single shots. He puts together his punches when he's on the full out offensive leading.

 

All jokes aside now, enough about Mayweather in a catchweight.

What Alvarez can take from Floyd's previous fights is that he doesn't exactly push the pace either so now that I think of it, stamina shouldn't be too much of an issue here. Alvarez fights differently depending on his opponent, if people can remember the Lopez fight they'll know that Alvarez was all over him with offense and wasn't coasting for 2 minutes of the rounds. Now I don't think Floyd will be a punching bag like lopez but it shows that he has it in him to turn it up when he wants to.

More even fight then some people think, should be interesting.

 

nvm Alvarez did try to counter Lopez with combos as early as the first round

 

On that first point, Guerrero showed us a dimension that we hadn't really seen before, which was that after you take the right, you can find Mayweather's body as he's ducking out with his hands down. Floyd made him far too hesitant to continue to do so with right hand leads to the head and body, but he was accurate to the body throughout the fight IMO. Canelo's left to the body would be a great way to catch Floyd, either on the mid-section, or changing it to an uppercut and catching Floyd's head (Donaire did this for one round against Rigondeaux and it would have served him well to do so the whole fight.) The head moves, the body doesn't. Floyd might adjust and stand more straight up, but the punches score and they hurt.

Canelo has serious stamina problems, and I think hanging back a bit would benefit him well. He can land that heavy jab at range without expending too much energy. Although even in the Trout fight, when taking rounds off, he was still very mobile and great with his upper body movement. Floyd can't corner him. He may come forward in spots, but if he tries to walk him down, I think Canelo would walk him into something (which isn't a bad thing to try and do once in a while).

Canelo needs to study Castillo, DLH, and Cotto, and throw in his own head movement and straight punches at range from his height to compliment.

JMM definitely caught Floyd with some sharp counters, but his failure to do so consistently enough doesn't necessarily apply to Canelo, who won't be at such a reach disadvantage. Trying to counter a jab 5 inches longer than your own is hell. Trying to throw a straight right over it against someone roughly the same height is not. Canelo doesn't throw very long strings of combinations after a counter, but can throw a combination of two, which would be good.

 

Trout's a pretty decent boxer himself. He damn near shutout Cotto one fight after Floyd struggled with Cotto. Oh, and Saul really took it to Trout. I'm not saying Trout is near Floyd's level, but Saul handled a slippery, defensive fighter (Fish) quite well for his most immediate fight.

Floyd should be concerned about Cinnamon's power.

 

I also believe that Saul's stamina was not accurately reflected in his bout with Fish. He was fighting more defensive because the scorecards were being read to him... it's not rocket science.

 

Mayweather: Alvarez has slow feet (even though he has fast hands) and might have low stamina/output/trouble making weight. While Saul also has very good head movement now, numerous times against Trout he had both hands down at his sides not doing much, trying to save energy. Saul's body often looked pretty hittable against Trout, but Trout was reluctant to go there for fear of lowering himself into an uppercut again (Trout got hit by a bunch of uppercuts he just leaned down into.) For Mayweather, he could possibly bank rounds on Saul by peppering him with jabs and straight rights to the gut and the chest, to further try and test/exploit his possibly suspect gas tank.

Alvarez: Mayweather ducked under a lot of Guerrero's jabs and straight lefts to counter with right hands as he rose up again before sidestepping away. Alvarez should certainly try and exploit that habit with uppercuts from either hand (possibly hook/uppercut variants like DLH's old .45 punch if Mayweather tries to duck down to either side rather than straight down.) In addition, in the Cotto fight, Mayweather started throwing a wider, slower right hand and a wider left hook to get around Cotto's gloves, which were stopping the jab and straight right. Canelo could try and bring back a high guard, but lunge in with a head jab or left hook to the body (in response to a wide right) or a straight right to the head or the body (in response to a left hook) to hit Floyd, close the distance, and possibly make Floyd miss as well. If he were to wind up inside Floyd's range after a lunging single counter or 1-2 like that, then Alvarez would be best off trying to sneak in uppercuts or hooks to the body while leaning on Floyd to try and wear him out. He should definitely look to use what'll likely be a 15-20 pound weight advantage when the opportunities present themselves, but he shouldn't chase Floyd around making that the focal point of his strategy or he'll gas.

For Floyd, the fight is as simple as doing what he usually does, trying to potshot from the outside and possibly also trying to exploit Alvarez's maybe-suspect gas tank. For Alvarez, he has to conserve his gas tank and come in with numerous tactics to adjust and react to Floyd's round-by-round or mid-round adjustments. Still, the best approach from Alvarez would be to alternate between retreating from the ropes, being sparing with his punches, and trying to counterpunch off the ropes a little like what he did against Trout, and adopting the high guard, stalking counterpunching he showed against Lopez as the two big parts of the overall strategy. Trying to box and move from the outside would be more difficult to pull off and also might needlessly expend his gas tank, so Alvarez should try and avoid that.

Basically, it's not an impossible task, but Alvarez has much more work cut out for him than Mayweather does.

 

Bump:

Canelo: "We must begin by hitting the body and then going up to the head. The key is to stay calm."

 

I suppose they'll be studying the Cotto tape the most then.

We'll see if that plan has lost its effectiveness with Floyd's experience from it and the reemergence of his fleet feet.

 

After rewatching an Alvarez fight, he showed he can counter with combos. It's a rare occurrence though. The majority of his counters are single shots. Floyd unlike Josesito Lopez wouldn't stand around for the receipt and allow for a counter combo from Alvarez.

 

Floyd was pretty fleet in the first 3 rounds, the jab and patient pressure paid off as the fight went on. It's rare a Floyd opponent has their best moments in the mid-rounds.