I'd say 10% and that may be generous to Povetkin. AP's problem is that he is a combination puncher, and whilst throwing leather into Wlad's guard, he will be leaving himself wide open for counters. My prediction is a spectacular KO for WK. This fight is too early for Povetkin, who should have sat this one out and built up to a big -- but winnable -- bout against David Haye.
One which has alot more risk than 10% though in anybodys eyes, Haye is a far bigger threat to Wlad than Povetkin anyone who denies that is seriously deluded.
I put 30-35% however that may be a bit generous....hopefully Povetkins style will coax more than 3 right hands out of Waldo the entire fight
If Wlad has a good camp (like he always does) and he is in shape (like he always is) and prepares hard for Povetkin (which he will)....... NO WAY Povetkin beats Wlad
I give Povetkin a 20-25% chance of winning, with Wlad's glass chin and lack of mental toughness at the top level, will always leave him somewhat vulnerable if turns into a street fight, which I feel is the only way to beat a highly skilled, very powerful big man like Wlad. Povetkin seems tough, and has an impressive workrate as well, something he will need to bring into the ring with him against Wlad. I see Povetkin getting baited into a boxing match, in which Wlad jabs him to death, and clinches him so he doesnt attack on the inside. By the 7th round Povetkin is just fighting to survive, and Wlad will find a opening for the big straight right, which will end matters right there.
About 30-35% chance. Povetkin has the style that could give Wlad trouble, and is in his mental and physical prime. I also think Povetkin's intagibles are world class. He won't go away easy. There is a chance for an upset here, and that is coming from a Klitschko fan. However, I do not think Wlad will under estimate Povetkin. I get the hunch this one will be a good fight while it lasts.
Povetkin is hungry, has a good chin and good power, he might beat Wlad. I'll say he has about 30% chances, which is decent, but this is Wlad's fight to lose. In fact, I think Povetkin, Chagaev, Valuev, Haye, Peter are the ones with better chances of beating Wlad, all of them with about the same chances. Next I'd say Virchis, Gomez, Dimitrenko, all with about 20% odds. Then Arreola and a 250lbs version of Briggs, would have 10%. After that I can't see anybody else who would have a decent chance with Wlad in the near future.
You're underestimating Povetkin a lot here but hey, everyone is so this is normal. I'm hoping the fight proves otherwise whether Povetkin wins or loses I just don't see him losing easily, he will give Wladimir HELL even if he loses. Much respect to Wladimir for taking this fight, the man is here to stay active and fight everyone out there, that's why I always liked him.