What chance does Breazeale have to pull off an upset? I would say about a 10 percent chance. I would like him to pull the upset just because Wilder wont fight Fury or Aj anytime soon.
Having watched Wilder fight enough, I see he pauses to catch his breath and moves into a 'defensive' mode, moving his upper body around and using his footwork to move back. If Breazeale can stay on his feet and work between Wilders flurries and when he is in this 'defensive' mode he has a chance. Breazeale has to press the action though during these lulls and force Wilder to work, if he does that I give him a 30% chance at victory.
40% Wilder isn't really very good. Breazeale isn't terrible, he's certainly better than shot Arreola, old faded physically unfit Ortiz, inactive old Stiverne and chinny Szpilka. Breazeale is strong enough to give Wilder a good fight, and I think he has a real chance of winning.
I honestly dont count him out. It will depend a lot on DBs will to win, imo. I think Wilder is vulnerable to a gritty guy whose intent on pushing the pace and taking the fight to him. So if DB comes to walk through fire for the win due to their personal history, I think it could get interesting. Obviously still favor Wilder to win by UD or late stoppage.
I think he has a decent chance as Wilder isn't much of a boxer and Breazeale is tough. 1 in 4 chance, I guess. He will never win on the cards though.
