30% sounds about right. Haye is VERY fast and VERY powerful, but Wlad is, as well. Not to mentoin Wlad's size and very long reaching, pole like jab will be a big factor in keeping Haye from doing much effective bomb landing.
Haye needs a KO. If it goes 12 rounds then wlad will get a unanimous decision from the judges Phil Klitschko, J Klitschko and Mrs T Klitchsko.
He has a very low chance of even landing ANYTHING meaningful upstairs on Wlad Klitschko. He has ZERO chance of winning on the scorecards in Germany. But he has every chance of getting his long sought after retirement payday. That equates to a very one-sided fight with not much vigor coming from Haye's end. People greatly underrate Wlad's ability to avoid being hit. Wlad will turn his back, lean away, get on his bike if needed, and hold, hold, HOLD. Haye does not have the stuff to deal with all that for 12 rounds. He's a lot smaller than Wlad in overall stature, which Manny likes to have his bigger fighters exploit to the fullest. Wlad will beat Haye rather easily. Haye is a very good Cruiserweight, but he didn't clean out that division. He also hasn't fought anyone like Wlad before. Wlad will make him pay for every defensive mistake he makes. Getting wild will only get Haye KO'ed much earlier. This aint Audley he's fighting next.
from fighting mediocre heavyweights to fighting the best heavyweight in the world, this looks like a story with a very bad ending
Very poor chance, almost zero chance. If Vlad slips and falls down on his head or if Haye brings a gun into the ring, he could have a chance.
Another big factor being overlooked is Haye is taking his act on the road. He will not be fighting in his backyard where everything he does gets cheered. The cheering will be for the other guy. I wonder how he'll handle that long ring entrance of Klitschko. He'd better stay real lose and not dry out. And he'd better keep those legs moving during that 10 minute or longer wait as well. There is a chance he dries out and feels the pressure of the big event and especially with the heavies, a guy can get steamrolled in 1 or 2 rounds. Wlad has been in that position many times and the shoe will be on the other foot for Haye this time. I question his ability to be a road warrior type guy and tend to think he's more of a Frank Bruno type and does much much better with home cooking. We'll see.
For me , he doesn't have any chance. And that's why I believe that something will happen and the fight will not take place . But, I must admit that he is the best opponent Wlad can have . All the others , are not as good as Haye
I couldn't beat Wlad on Fight Night on GOAT difficulty in 6 attempts, so good luck to Haye but I'll be rooting for him!