I'm looking at some Wlad footage and he's good but I don't see a completely un even fight. If wilder could take wlads jab and not eat that 2nd punch it might be pretty competitive. I'm thinking like 33% wilder. But I don't watch to much Wlad fights. Maybe someone who watches a lot of Klit fights could tell me what it looks like.
Chances are slim maybe 5-10%, as he has his punchers chance without a question. Waldo doesn't have a strong mandible, but it is the second or third punch in short succession that sends him down and he mastered to avoid follow up punches. The gulf in experience is huge and Waldo is clever enough to make that count. His last fight with Pulev is actually watchable (you can find it on youtube), you can see that Pulev is very aggressive and there was a bit of bad blood, but Waldo was calm and experienced enough to do his thing. He won't be thrown off his gameplan even if Wilder clips him a bit. His distance management is far superiour as is his footwork. I would bet my house that Waldo would be the one establishing his jab, despite Wilder being a bit taller and for Wilder it will go downhill from there. He is also physically much stronger, after some rounds Wilder will significantly lose steam and Waldo will open up to a midround KO. Wilder's only chance is the hail mary punch.
5% chance, and I am being generous. Deontay's reach will be negated by Wlad's sudden aggressiveness. Last time Wlad fought a puncher of this magnitude was Haye, but Haye was like mercury, the guy was practically viscous. Deontay's movements are nowhere near as fluid, and his footwork can't even be compared. Wlad by a vicious KO within 6 rounds.
I would say 15%, since wlad was flattened a few times and went to a more conservative style i can never actually remember him having to withstand a barrage of punches from someone getting in trouble(unless someone has footage to prove otherwise) would like to see how he reacts to being rocked, wilder still looks to windmilly in his punches, his technique still too raw imo to be a serious threat against wwlad who fundamentality is so sound
Look at all the polls about Wilder vs Stiverne on this forum. More than 70% of the people thought Stiverne would "KTFO this hype job". If you go back 10 years, I'm sure most of these people were calling Wlad "a hype job" as well. "Prime Tyson would murder Wlad", "Lennox will kill this bum just like he did to his bro", and so on. Point is, Wilder literally turned a WBC champ into a punching bag in his last fight. Wlad has no reach advantage against him. So there's absolutely no reason why Wilder can't beat Wlad. It will be an even match up to say the least.
The truth is Wilder can KO Klitschko, but Klitschko can do the same. Tho Klitschko can outbox Wilder and win by UD, Wilder cant. For a KO chance % should be 40-60 in favor of Wlad or 50-50, due to age of Wlad.