Key things that I think factor in this fight... 1) Uysk said in interview afterwards that he saw a LOT of mistakes that he can correct in the rematch 2) Fury isn't giving me huge vibes that he really believes he can win the rematch, the way he bummed Usyk up @ Dubois v Joshua, was telling IMO 3) On the flipsdie, Usyk has scaled Everest and has movies on etc, and even though he is a consumate professional, maybe he is not as 100% focussed as he was in the first one? 4) Fury needs to sort his corner out and get John out of it if he wants any chance IMO 5) Fury KNOWS that Usyk can hurt him, and Usyk KNOWS that Fury knows this, Fury's punch resistance has dropped a lot and even though his recovery is still stellar, it's a concern. Personally, I have a feeling that this fight might be pretty dull, with Usyk clearly outboxing Fury, but with Fury being concerned about being hurt, being more passive than normal and the fight closes out as a clear UD to Usyk. I'd really LOVE to see Fury really go for it and go out on his shield, as I think that is his best chance - if he can hurt Usyk like he did in round 6 earlier, and follow up, IMO that's his best chance; of course if Uysk starts slow and conserves energy it could be really bad for Fury after his tank is depleted, we saw what happen in 7-9 last time. But I don't think we will see that - I think we will see a very cagey & more passive Fury, no showboating, looking to avoid shots more than normal, and Usyk will do enough clean work to take the decision, in an uneventful affair. I don't think Usyk will really try and force a stoppage either, unless he feels things are very close.
Both will obviously be wiser for the experience of the first meeting and I suspect Fury in particular will be better prepared and more focussed this time around. It's a pick em fight and anybody who can't see that is likely clouding their judgement with hate. Which isn't a very good barometer for picking results with.
Fair points, however: 1. It's harder to recognize and correct mistakes when you have won. 2. To me it comes across more like Fury knows he won't win his traditional mind games, and may be trying to lure Usyk into a false sense of security by acting meek. 3. Yes that's a concern. Usyk didn't perform quite as well against AJ the second time, perhaps he gets a little too complacent in rematches? 4. Fully agree. 5. Fury has already faced that demon before multiple times in his career. It's also worth noting that Fury clearly hurt and buzzed Usyk at multiple points in the fight as well. I felt Fury fought quite passively in the first fight compared to say, Wilder 2 and 3. I expect both fighters to start hard and fast in the rematch. Either of them slowing down too early risks a stoppage. It's also worth noting that Usyk isn't getting any younger and he's capable of gassing out too. It's not something exclusive only to his opponents.