When you say "such and such has a puncher's chance only", what do you mean? Would you expect the puncher to win via the "puncher's chance" 1/4? 1/6? I know it will vary from fight to fight depending on who is who, but presumably you see a sort of minimum or maximum chance before you can attach this label? That's what i'm asking about; what are the odds or %chance of victory in your eyes when a fighter is talked about as having only the puncher's chance?
i'd go about 1/10. it's kind of a prediction of the fight and matchup as much as an actual %chance when i use it tbh.
So when you say "pucher's chance" you'd expect to see the puncher win about 1 in 5 times as a maximum, and as few as 1 in 10?
Yes, although I'd say that the term itself is misused. A "punchers chance" refers to a scenario where one fighter is clearly overmatched, but only needs one or two punches to end it.
People say it a lot though. Basically whenever a lesser opponent who can hit matches a better opponent and you'll always hear someone say it. I think that it means that you're ruling out a decision win for the puncher. That's ok. But it's an extremely vague term apart from that. When Shavers meets Holmes it makes the most sense, i think. But you'll also hear it said when Shavers is matched with Tommy Loughran. However, people obviously believe that it's more likely that Shavers will knock out Loughran than Holmes. At some point the abilities of the punchers cease to fit the mould of a fighter with a puncher's chance only. It becomes unreasonable to say "puncher's chance" despite the dearth in skill, for whatever reason. I'm interested in that point.
Anything from 1 in 100 to maybe 1 in 8. It's not a big chance at all, the "puncher's chance". If it's better than that then there's probably more at play. And, I guess, if a fighter keeps winning with the "puncher's chance" I was wrong about him anyway, and there's more to him than I can see. Basically, puncher's chance is where a fighter is inferior in just about EVERY department. He doesn't even have an offensive advantage in any way, he doesn't possess adequate "KO artistry" but he does carry power. Anyone can be knocked out after all.
Yes, that's a good answer. It's made more difficult because a puncher on the way up tends to score lots of KOs against inferior opposition. Is that skill on delivery or poor defence?
For me, the most important condition is that a fighter has virtually no chance of putting up even a competitive fight (or winning more than 2-3 rounds maybe) unless he can land a huge, day-saving, game-changing Sunday punch. The odds of such a punch happening can vary a great deal, imo, and still be considered a puncher's chance.
A punchers chance is one of the most overrated concepts in boxing. A fighter with a punch and not much else has a snow***** chance in hell, at the highest level. A boxer always has a chance!
It really depends on how good his opponents durability is. The punchers chance to me means the one with the chance has enough power to win with one or two big shots, but outside of that he's going to lose on points or via stoppage. The heavier the weights, the greater the punchers chance is. The bigger the puncher is the more likely it can happen. For example punchers who fought Lennox Lewis or Wlad had the punchers chance. Four opponents cashed in on it. I'm too busy to count their combined title fights but I'd imagine it's over 30 title defenses.
