What does Cotto have to do to beat Pac, and what does Pac have to do to beat Cotto?

I think this favours Cotto if it becomes a war.

This fight depends on two things.

1. Has Cotto fully recovered from getting his ass handed to him by Margo?
If no, Cotto is going to have problems. If yes, it should be a better fight.

2. Can Pac bring serious power to this weight?
If yes, Cotto is going to have problems. However, if Pac can not hurt Cotto, once Cotto realises it, he is going to eat Pac alive.

I am not totally convinced of Manny's power at 145, but Cotto definitely has KO power at 147. I am also unsure about Cotto post-Margo. He didn't look good against Jennigs. He fought his way out of the Clottey situation, which was supposedly his hardest fight. Props to him for that.

This is definitely a mouth-watering fight.

I predict that Cotto will be confident fighting a smaller man who he knows that he can KTFO. He needs a plan to avoid taking Pac's flush straight left. I don't think he is going down from Pac's right. Once he does that, he will slowly grind Pac down until mid to late, when he will flatten him.

 

I predict Pac too fast and he will be all over Cottnly way Cotto can win is if he quickens the f up or use timing.I vote for the latter; he will use his jab and time Pac.However Pac will continue to zap him, in and out, in and out.The longer this goes on.Cotto will look lost and discouraged. becomes slower, slower as the rnd go by cuz he is left flat footed and out hitted possibly wiping blood from his eye.Then Pac steps it up. Pac has another gear.

 

Two keys for Cotto: He has to keep moving, when he stands still he is like a punching bag down the middle, and secondly he can't try and fight off the back foot at any point, as in, no rapid backpedalling. When he backpedals he totally sells himself short offensively and becomes totally vulnerable defensively.

Cotto has all the tools to be much more effective than he actually is, but he doesn't apply them consistently and lets himself get backed up too often (mental issue). When he decides to be aggressive and let some leather fly he can hold his own in the middle of the ring against pretty much anyone, but the more damage he suffers over his career the more likely he is to get backed up more easily (a mental issue, see Clottey fight).

For Manny, he needs to move in and out of range to mitigate any possible body attack from Cotto, and limit his combination punching both upstairs and down, but not too carelessly (dropping his hands etc getting overconfident). When they exchange Manny needs to use his superior handspeed to make Cotto pay, with straight shots down the middle, exploiting Cotto's poor defense.

I think at some point Manny will land hard enough shots to scare Cotto into one of his backpedalling sessions, and at this point he will become very vulnerable and Pacquiao won't let up.