What does Froch need to do to beat Bute?

To me Froch needs to use his length and jab. I think Carl will continue the trend of boxing more than brawling, and he will give ground.Bute will be looking to counter. If he can keep from getting countered with something hurtful, and keep leather coming at Bute, there is no reason to me why he can't take enough rounds to win the fight.

However, Froch's jab does leave him open for counters. I see him getting caught late and stopped.

 

Bute does have a somewhat unproven cheen, but he does have a good poonch.

 

:rofl:rofl

 

I actually favor Froch to beat Bute.

 

imo, Bute did not have any easy time. If he is the #1 SMW he should have walked all over Magee - who is a virtual non-entity at 168. He got hit a lot more than he should have.

 

Meat is murder...look at Froch's face when it's all over.

 

This. When I first read this thread, this was what came to my mind.

The LAST thing Froch needs to do is make it a war. Even though he tries an underrated, smei-slick style he still gets caught to both body and head. Kessler, in comparison, fairly rudimentary body shots sapped him of strenth and got through no problem. Bute is from a different technical cloth than Kessler in terms of these specific punches. Above all, he is at his best using them against an orthodox, comeforward fighter as he lunges in. Ring a bell?

Froch should use distance. Feint himself to provoke counters from Bute to see where he's at. Make him think that he will attack but then wait to try to frustrate Bute, who will be expecting a stupid, reckless Froch. A Froch who will try to physically bully him like Andrade (first fight) and use superior conditioning and chin to break him down. This, I feel, is what Bute will expect.

But; if Froch uses the jab, which Lucian is not immune to, he could make Bute come forward. And since Bute is a bit unproven in his come-forward mode it's a bit more unsure how he's fare. Usually he doesn't seem to like this as much and often are claculating and a bit too hesitant.

The problem is - I still don't think Froch is fast enough to avoid Bute's more sparse punches and get through with his own. Bute won't let himself tire again. Froch is too slow to counter effectively except for the jab and his lead right never has been a great weapon. Trying out body shots could be fatal - not to mention the incredibly slow uppercut.

Froch will be down on points (barring judges incompetency) in the later rounds. Not by extremely much but still in need for a knockout. He will be desperate like he was against Ward the last rounds. The chance, and my bet, is that he gets knocked out. You cannot bumrush Bute. He's far too sharp, far too many punches and has far too good timing and power for that. Even Ward would lose with his bumrushing strategy.

Ward, I suspect, will beat him in the way Froch should try to - jab and movement. Only difference is that Ward is much better at it. Froch's telegraphed double jab when he sort of pushes forward too much with his front foot might be penalized with Bute's improving weapon, which hurt Johnson: the right hook. Because make no mistake - Johnson felt Bute's power early and knew of it. Otherwise we wouldn't have seen him THAT cautious. Johnson's chin and defense are better than Froch's. The body shots in particular will be Carl's downfall.

 

He did walk all over him

 

Extremely hard fight for Froch due to the fact that it's his nightmare of an opponent (slick, fast, powerful, technical and on top of that a southpaw), the only chance he has is either to take it to Bute and make him tire or hope for a KO, he's not winning on points, that's just not happening.

 

He did have a relatively easy time, yes. He was hit with some sharp lefts in the middle rounds but pasted Magee with mulitple knockdowns. Was put under pressure but didn't look uncomfortable one bit, most of the time.

I actually agree that Bute's defense and lauded "slickness" is unproven against better fighters, which makes me hesitant to pick him against Ward. Froch, though, isn't as sharp and varied even though he imposes himself. Bute sometimes gets hit a bit easily and I have questions marks around his guard. Defensive movement is great, but the guard could be porous and lax at times.

Kessler said it best: Froch ALWAYS comes back when you punch. Vs Johnson and partly Kessler (early on) it worked, against Ward (quicker and better counterpuncher than the former two) it mostly backfired and against Bute it could lead to knockdowns, since Bute also has a bit different but still a quick counter punching prowess. If Bute if clever, he'll feint to draw counters from Froch. Then, when Froch think he's be smart and macho, Bute should strike back. Do like the great Mantequilla.

We might see a cautious and boring fight á la Dirrell early, then Froch losing marginally but clearly will start to come forward.

 

froch is what boxing needs. hes down to fight.

i just dont think froch could do it. if he wants to beat bute he has to hit a homer.

 

there are 2 ways froch can win...but he wont...


1- lucky ko punch, can happen to anyone


2- wear bute down physically with body punches and stop him late in 11 or 12...

but like i said neither of this will happen...bute will win UD or tko

 

I understand your point but I don't fully think that we can simply leave it to such a simple assessment...

If for instance you'd have never heard of Andre Ward before and I tell you that he's easily the best SMW in the world, but I only give you the SAKIO BIKA fight to view, for you to see who he is. If you're honest, there's no way you'll think he's the best. You may think there's nice flashes of athleticism and boxing smarts but that would in no way be enough for you to be sure he's the best in the weight class.

Bute adapted much better with Bika from the 5th round on, at a time where Bika was even more at his best after he had fought tough championship fights against Beyer & Calzaghe.

That's why I tend to limit comparisons between common opponents between fighters. I much prefer concentrate on what both guys bring in the ring in terms of their skills and overall tools.

See even though Bute looked much better against Bika than Ward did, I still see Ward athleticism carry him to a UD over Bute.

 

My take :

First my thoughts on Froch as this point

Nuts and Bolts :

Boxer puncher who shows more discipline now than ever.
Good jab, single and double which offers him a range finder, and a defensive tool. Under-rated wepone when he goes to the body.
Good right hand, capable of shooting it straight and looping it mid flight, this increases it's chance of landing despite a telegraphed look.
Cast Iron chin
Very good Stamina (Age considered)
Uppercuts with both hands, which are sometimes thrown from too far out.
Brilliant trainer and tactician in his corner.


Froch peaked in the Super Six tournament, he had retained his physical tools into his mid to late thirties, and made a mental adjustment to be more of a pugilist than a face first brawler. Factoring in Carl's length, his under-rated jab, brilliant corner, and chin this suited him well and we saw the results.

Froch had always felt he was in the shadow of Joe Calzaghe, the Super Six tournament would be his arena, his stage to prove that he was better than Joe, that he (Froch) had faced the best competition of his era and beat them.

I think Froch put everything he had into that tournament, mentally and physically. The fact is that he's 35 years old and closer to the end of his career than the biggining. The game plan below is suited to the Froch from the Super Six tournament, which may turn out to be different from the man that we see in May.

Nuts and bolts about Bute :

Southpaw
Nice jab, which he is capable of doubling and trippling up on.
Very good body puncher
Improved defense
Sharp and precise puncher
Good punching fluidity
Under-rated corner man, who tells it like it is.

Bute is on the right side of a rising tide right now, he appears more polished everytime he fights (Though opposition is questionable and not on par with Froch's recent fights) and shows more defensive awareness now than he did previously. (Case and point the first Andrade fight) Bute shows good power, and an ability to grind his man down by going to the body. Lateral movement and punching fluidity are key points when it comes to analysing Bute.

His chin may be suspect.
There are questions over his opposition
The fight is away from home
He will be eager to make a statement.

How I would advise Froch to fight :

The crowd in this fight, may be as much of a problem early on for Froch, as they are for Bute. For the first two rounds, I would have Froch fight conservative, pump his jab, doubling up whilst walking forward. Stay behind that jab, and do not put your chin in range of Bute early. It's a new enviroment for the Canadian, don't allow him to land early and gain confidence. Stay composed, and shoot the right hand as warning when Bute gets too close. When shooting the right hand, take half a step to your right, (Back foot, to the right) in order to keep the angle straight, rather than unconventional and suited to a southpaw.

When Bute does get close, establish lead foot position. At a speed dis-advantage as well as from a technical stand point, tactical superiority is vital for Froch.

Do not throw those long looping upper-cuts in the first few rounds, you will leave yourself exposed to either a right hook over the top, or a straight left down the shoot.

There must be a pretence of defence for Froch, if he's jabbing he must pivot to the side and keep his right hand up, Bute is capable of precise fast punching, and it's not good to take too many. Use the jab as a defensive tool, use it to get Bute to concede ground, then occupy that space, in other words establish to the judges that you are in control of the ring.

4th round onwards there must be body work. Froch keeps his left hand low, I'd spend the entire training camp trying to drum that out of him here, especially when he goes to the body. Jab to the pit of the stomach, and bring your left hand back covering your chin, likewise when shooting a straight right to the body. A right hand to the chest of Bute would be a good idea too, shock him; take his breath for a moment, make him uncomftorble in strange surroundings. In terms of Bute's body work, Froch should shoot his straight punches with his elbows tucked in, otherwise he is too exposed. If Bute gets too close, grab him. The referee will break you and restore your advantage with distance.

Froch is in Nottingham, so close rounds are not going to be a bad thing for him, do not go gung ho in the last thirty seconds, it's an un-needed risk.

Press the action later. Froch is an offensive fighter, it's his bread and butter, educated preassure is key, show the judges you are the aggressor, you want to take the title from the Champion, this is your house, you are king here. feint to the body and come upstairs to the head, scoring shots whilst remaining responsible with your own foot movements and head movements.

The crowd don't matter, you're in a do or die situation. Follow the game plan, trust your initiative and don't go getting caught when you don't need too just to impress spectators. Discipline, tactical knowlege and range is where Froch could win this fight.

(Just an estimate, I wouldn't bank on the above)

 

Be an Iron Chinned Warrior.