What if Ali's exile had actually lasted 5 years and he wasn't cleared to fight till 1972? What effect does this have on him? If he gets the shot at Frazier, by then Joe was nearing his dday with George, how does this affect the fight? Would five years out be too detrimental for Ali's career? Thoughts..?
The longer the break - the return is more difficult, to the point where the return is irrelevant. IMHO in the situation that actually happened Ali was pausing as much as possible. If the break was only 6 months longer - boxing HW history would have changed. I read Ali's autobiography "The Greatest" which talks about this, but I read it a long time ago, and the pi details are blurred (about 25 years ago, or more).
For big George, a break of ten years didn't actually hurt him all that much, but Ali was different, he relied on that speed. Five years out, and who knows how it affects him. A couple of warm up fights then in against Joe. But can this Joe muster up that monster from FOTC, hard to say.? It could definitely change Ali's path, even slightly.
That's why Foreman is an anomaly. No one would have become champion after a 10-year hiatus, but it was to his advantage that he fought Moorer, not Holyfield or Bowe. As for the 10 (ten) year break, Foreman should be seen as a alien, not as a man. Ali's break can be compared to Tyson's break. If Tyson had been in prison for ten years, there would have been no second career. In that regard, Foreman is an alien, not a human.
I don’t see how Frazier would struggle to produce a FotC performance in early ’73, provided the noise was still there from, & for, him to fight Ali. He lost something after their actual clash, but who in ’71-72 was going to take that something from him? No one I can see.
Perhaps, do you think there would still be that intensity two years on? Or maybe Joe would have gotten too relaxed as champ. Not saying that would be the case, just trying to imagine Joe not being the monster from the FOTC.
He already lost a lot from the three year drop off, and I think that two more years would've been enough to make even bigger dent in The Greatest's ability. The only reason he lasted so long in reality was because of his superb technique, ability, and athleticism, even past his prime.
One could alternatively argue - & I have entertained the idea - that Ali as he was in the real timeline, had he taken Frazier’s place in Jamaica in January of ’73, would have been beaten by Foreman. Caught unawares & ill-prepared as Frazier was.
Well, as I say, it would still hinge on the motivation being at the same level. Ali would certainly do his part for that, & if the public was in step, I think Frazier would be as up for it as he was in the real timeline. If the intensity wasn’t there, then perhaps not.
Knowing Ali, he's gonna get Frazier wound up anyway lol Wonder if Ken Norton still comes in to play at some point. The time line is a bit jumbled unless Frazier and Ali Fight in 72 and Joe beats his ass.
The guy — apart from Ali himself — who might come up as the biggest loser in this scenario is Norton. The Ali fights (especially the first) made him. Would be interesting to see how and if he would have made his mark without Ali … presumably he still never fights Frazier and he probably runs into Big George early in Foreman’s title run and is forever regarded as a guy with a good record who got steamrolled by the bully at the top of the throne. Or maybe he finds a side door that allows him a spot in history as he managed to do in reality (winning a title retroactively by beating Jimmy Young in an eliminator and losing it to Larry Holmes in his first defense).
He would’ve still regained the championship, but obviously wouldn’t have been able to build as much of a legacy as he did.
