What if Joe Louis never became a boxer? Who'd have been champ?

ah so you admit he was a ducker

 

Louis Nova was an anticipated bout. However the odds going in were nearly 3-1 for Louis.

 

Over the same period, Schmelling, Lou Nova, Buddy and Max Baer.

 

Louis ducked nobody. If there was any person he would have ducked it was Schmeling but he actively pursued that fight stating " I won't feel like the champion until I beat Schmeling ". Ko 1. This victory is underplayed in today's world but Max was not only a prior champion, not only koed Louis, not only was considered one of the hardest punchers of the day but also had been a leading contender for the hwt title for 10 years going into that rematch.

 

The more I hear about the fight, the more I think that Galento just had Nova’s number.

I say that as somebody who rates Nova as one of the best contenders of all time, and would not put Two ton in the same category.

 

Braddock's management probably would have handled the situation as they did in real life - namely making the most of the situation financially while they were in the driver's seat. (Incidentally, Braddock's management tried to get a piece of Louis in return for a title shot; failing that, they went after Mike Jacobs and got 10% of all of Jacobs' heavyweight title promotions for the next ten years. Contrary to popular belief, it was not 10% of Louis' purse, it was 10% of the promotion (Jacobs' cut) regardless of who was champion during that ten year period.)

Probably the most lucrative match would have been Braddock-Baer II. I can see Braddock's management insisting that Baer first fight Schmeling, Carnera, or Farr. After all, in real time, Baer fought Joe Louis in his next outing after losing the title. A couple hard fights against the top opposition may soften Max or take the edge off him for a rematch. I believe Baer would always be a problem for Schmeling, but let's consider these two scenarios:

Scenario I: Schmeling defeats Baer in an eliminator. This could result in the same chicanery that denied Schmeling a shot at Braddock in real life. But if Schmeling gets the title shot this time, I could see him regaining the title against Braddock. If that happened, Schmeling might pull off a string of title defenses, possibly against Carnera, Farr, Harry Thomas, a rematch with Braddock, a rubber match with Baer. By then, Schmeling would be getting old and shopworn and ready to be taken by any of Pastor, Nova, or Conn. If Conn gets the first chance, he takes the title and defends against Pastor and Nova before the war. After the war, Conn takes on Jersey Joe and loses the title. Jersey Joe, in turn, loses to Charles in '48 or '49, and runs up a long string of defenses until he meets Marciano.

Scenario II: Baer defeats Schmeling in the eliminator. I consider this the most likely scenario. Schmeling is now out of the picture and Baer trains for Braddock with a vengeance. He regains the title against a game Braddock. He probably loses the title to either Tommy Farr or Lou Nova. As in Scenario I above, Billy Conn ultimately emerges as champ before the war, and the line of succession goes as described.

That's my $.02, but it is a very interesting question with many possibilities.

 

Take away Louis and WW II, I believe Schmeling had something of an Archie Moore quality to him. As it was, he rebounded from Louis II to knock out Heuser for the European Title before 70,000 fans on German television a year later, then came back again from grievous war injuries to his right knee at the Battle of Crete to make a successful late 1940's comeback after eight years to achieve financial recovery, fracturing his opponent's jaw in his final win.

He had a leg sparing style, discipline, caution, resilience, intelligence and punch with the genetics which equipped him well for career longevity. Braddock was cursed with arthritis, Max Baer became something of a timid clown after Campbell, and Baer-Schmeling was not a good performance by Herr Max, but close enough to convince me that a rematch win for the Larruper would not have been a foregone conclusion.

Schmeling would have lost and regained the title a few times, but I think he could have been the predominant HW through what turned out to be the war years.

Sharkey III would have gone to Schmeling with the way Jack declined from Carnera I to Carnera II.

Louis himself thought the answer to this question might've been Billy Conn.

 

I think we've finally found a scenario where poisoning is a plausible theory in a heavyweight championship bout.

 

Yes you can