What if Max Schmeling got the decision over Jack Sharkey in their second encounter?

Schmeling retaining the belt probably doesn't change his opponent. Max Baer v Schmeling is just for a belt now opposed to an eliminator. Schmeling just lost his belts no real status change here if anything the opposite because people thought he won. Schmeling v Baer makes sense either way.

Of the other options.
If we ignore the medical side Schaaf lost to Baer hes not getting a title shot before Baer though if he didn't fight Carnera and lived he might be next.

Loughran at this specific time is coming off a losing streak. He gets his shot at Carnera for beating Sharkey. Hes out of contention at this point.

Carnera is on a win streak but his biggest win is a decision over Lasky that might have been a robbery. In our timeline Carnera gets the title shot off the Schaaf fight and at this point Max has that win and Carnera doesn't. Don't have info on the McCorkindale and Charles wins which were 10 round decisions but those wins would be much more valuable in 1933 and 1934 then in 1932. Levinsky its the same story. Victorio Campolo at this point hasn't fought since Carnera beat him for the SHW crown. In addition Carnera had clear losses to Sharkey and Gains in the past year. Carnera actually has a better case than Baer for a title shot here looking back at it in 1934 but at this time Carneras best wins aren't that valuable.

Looking at rings top 10s the guy with the best case for a title shot besides Baer and Carnera would be Stanley Poreda. At this point hes coming off Loughran, Carnera(robbery) and Schaaf wins. Poreda will be Schaafs final win at the end of the year but maybe that fight isn't made here? Commonwealth champ Gains has as good a case for a title shot as he ever had until he loses to Neusel later in the year.