There are obviously three possibilities: 1) Toney fights a Quizeda or Lyakovitch type of opponent this year.He won't fight another bum again. Conclusion: Scenario very possible. 2) Goossen already announced that Toney may particpate in 6 man WBC Tournament which will determine Vitali's mandatory challenger. The tournament will have to be confirmed and I do not know if this is a good idea because Toney will have to fight 3 times just to become mandatory but it is better than nothing. Conclusion: Scenario not very likely because other sanctioning bodies have announced such plans in the past and they failed. 3) Vitali will fight Toney in December 2009. Again, the date will have to be confirmed. I do not see Vitali fighting Toney at this point but you never know as there are no opponents left for him in the division.Conclusion: Scenario is highly unlikely. Note: One can only hope that Vitali's December date and the WBC tournament does not affect Toney's schedule to still fight again very soon. Toney can't afford to sit around and wait, he has to make things happen immediatley.
I do not think Vitali will fight Toney in december. Even after his recent win (which doesn't mean much given the low quality of his opponent), Toney isn't in a position to get a title-shot, and he won't get offered this fight for free. You're right in that there aren't many alternatives, but I think Vitali would rather fight Kevin Johnson than Toney at this point. So this fight is verly unlikely to happen, as you said.
I think IF that WBC tournament really happens, it would be a good option for Toney. I'm also certain that he would be in it, IF it happens, because there really aren't many other fighters available and Toneys got a big name. Such a tournament would mean two-three more tune-up fights for Toney, in a short period of time, and against beatable guys like Quizeda or Maskaev - it would be perfect for Toney, and allow him to stay in shape. It would also show us what he really has got left. The Greer fight didn't show us what James has got left, because frankly Greer's a bum - it only showed us that Toney is dedicated to the sport again. He (literally) is hungry again. And when he's hungry and has got something left, chances are good he would win such a tournament. He'd get his shot at the WBC belt then, and nobody could claim that he didn't deserve the title-shot either then.
Well, you may be right. However, I just hope that the tournament will be set up very soon and that the first fight takes place this year. Toney has to fight at least once this year again. At 41, he can't sit around on his fat ass and wait.
Each of the mentionned scenarios is realistic IMO. The best option from Toney's point of view would be to match him with a top ranked WBC within the next 6 weeks and try to secure a December date with Vitali...