What numbers would Fury Wilder get?

Bomber means no one ever did over 400k when BOTH fighters were in their ppv debut. I do think this match will do good all things considered for some of the reasons you mention. But I can't see over 500

 

I think Kiwi has the measure of it; 300k would be considered a success. I could see 200k getting the job done as well though. Ppv debuts are usually below 200k. But let's say 300k. That would check all thetboxes that Wilder or Fury would be looking to check. It would A ensure a purse over half as big as the one they could have gotten from AJ B get their ppv debut out of the way, paving the way for a bigger US ppv against AJ. It wouldn't be as lucrative as a UK fight, but it would make it close enough for: C Since aj would still want to fight in the UK, because he could still make make more money and because of home field advantage, it would put pressure on him to have to accept a 50/50 split in order to have the fight in the UK.
So, from a leverage perspective, if it does Ward Kovalev numbers, it's not going to move the needle too much in negotiations with AJ. The better it does, the more it moves that needle by making the US a realistic home for the winner to fight AJ.

 

Thats not how the ppv market works. You have to break someone in to us ppv. No one does great right off the start. 300k would be a big success for these fighters, toward the high end of two debut performances, and it would pave the way for a much bigger ppv against AJ.

That's what this is really about. If all goes well, the winner gets a nice purse, but more importantly sets themselves up for a 50/50 split with aj, by agreeing to fight in the UK. Right now AJ can dismiss the us as an option because the money is in ppv and both are unproven on us ppv. And he holds all the cards for the UK. So if the winner of this fight shows they can make money in the us, suddenly they have leverage that AJ doesn't. And they can use it in order to get a 50/50 purse so AJ can fight where he is more comfortable.

 

High risk high reward. They could probably get more money in the UK, but if they do well it will be close, and it will open up the us as a lucrative market to the winner. Most importantly, they can never really hope to match ajs drawing power in the UK, but this would put them a big step ahead of him in the us, and it would give them a big negotiating stick to demand 50/50 from AJ for a UK fight.

Of course that is if a. It does reasonably well and b. For the winner. The loser will have to just go get an organizations mandatory slot to face AJ. But honestly, the 25% they get from that won't be too much less than what AJ is offering now.