What odds would you give for Bob Fitzsimmons vs. Jack Johnson, each in what you consider to be their heavyweight prime? I'll posit an outdoor fight, 22-ft ring, 5-oz gloves, 25 rounds. Feel free to posit other scenarios. I'd favor Johnson, 5-to-3. I don't think Fitzsimmons is at a big disadvantage. 'Unforgivable Blackness' quotes Johnson -- who sparred with Fitzsimmons in 1902 -- as saying Bob was one of the few guys who could get him to bite on a feint. I don't think giving Fitz a 37.5% chance is overrating him; I might even be shorting him a little.
Johnson did more than spar with Fitz ,he knocked the "Old Warrior "out in 2 rounds inJuly 1907,but Fitz was 44,and well past it ,even Jack didnt claim any credit for it,Johnson did say "Fitz could knock your brains out",so he must have had a healthy respect for him. I would make Johnson a big favourite here ,he was a better boxer than Corbett,"new and improved",bigger and stronger,and Corbett outboxed Fitz for nearly all the 14 rounds their fight lasted ,even dropping him,Johnson would go for a decision ,I feel and get it.
Never seeing Fitz box its hard to judge. Johnson did KO him in 2 well past Fitz prime. Despite Fitz been past prime a 2 round blow out is a bad indication. Johnson also did fantastically against the best small men of his time like Langford, Jeannette, Burns and Ketchell. He was hard to hit, beat his opponent to the punch and had 1 punch power when he decided to throw
IMO, Johnson best wins over a prime or near prime opponent, which I will define as a well developed fighter winning record are over Tommy Burns, Ed Martin, Frank Moran and George Gardiner. IMO, Fitz best wins over a prime or near prime opponent, which I will define as a well developed fighter winning record are over Jim Corbett, Tom Sharkey, Peter Maher and George Gardiner. Fitz probably beat better prime fighters, and he did so in most cases via knockout. Johnson really was not a knock out artists, partly due to stylistic and strategic tendencies. This would be a close fight that could go either way. Johnson on points or Fitzsimmons via knockout would be the most likely outcomes. Having said that, it would not surprise me if Fitz deadly two fisted attack made Johnson gun shy and Fitz wins on points for " making " the fight. A Johnson knockout could happen, but I don't see it until the later rounds.
I think Langford as a 50 fight veteran must be considered prime even if he was only 155. How much better does anyone get after 50 pro fights despite gaining 30lbs? I personally think Johnson carried his opponents and fought down to the level of the opponent. What about the Ketchell fight he was playing with Ketchell, Ketchell put him down (against the pre-agreed arrangement) and Johnson proceeded to ko him in 1 shot. Who says he couldn't have done this more often?
A 60-40 split in Johnson's favor would seem reasonable. Maybe less than that, considering the two men's styles, but 60-40 is about right.
While Langford was a 50 fight veteran, he was far from the heavyweight terror he would become. Langford was not to far removed from fighting light weights and middle weights when Johnson gave the 156 pound Langford a crack at the heavyweight title. My point? This was not a prime or near prime heavyweight version of Sam Langford that Johnson beat. I'm not sure if the Ketchel fight was a fix. Even if it was, Ketchel hurt Johnson with the first solid punch he landed. While Ketchel could hit, he was not in Fitz class as a hitter. Id probably lean a bit to a prime Johnson beating a prime Fitzsimmons.
Interestingly, the closest Johnson fought to Fitz was probably the big hitting but small Joe Choynski. Choynski knocked Johnson out. The closest Fitz fought to Johnson was probably Jim Corbett. Jim was a lot more mobile than Johnson though, but probably not as powerful. Both were ATGs. Fitz upset Corbett and eventually got to him. This could go either way and i think that prime for prime, it is a 50/50 fight though i would expect Johnson to start a favourite due to his size advantage and the domination he established in his prime. Something tells me though, if any little guy that ever lived is going to beat Johnson, Fitz is the man.