What percentage chance would you give Tarver vs peak RJJ?

I’d give Tarver a 25 to 33% chance. He could either ko Roy in his prime or hurt him badly enough to flip the cards in his favor. But he’d probably drop a decision.

 

Sooner or later Tarver finds his mark and cracks that China chin. If they were to fight each other 100 times prime for prime in different hypothetical universes I think Tarver would win about 60.

 

I can’t put a percentage on it. By I think a prime Roy Jones would have soundly outboxed Tarver. The Jones who actually fought him was faded. 1990’s. Roy Jones was a different animal

 

I've honestly never been overly impressed with Tarver and have always been of the opinion that's he's a good fighter who happened to catch a great one on the way down.
Yes Jones looked vaguely ok in the short rounds of the rematch. But the writing was already on the wall. He'd looked pretty listless and lethargic in the first fight (which he still won). I remember thinking at the time he looked like he was fading.
I do think Tarver, in fairness, would pose a few early problems. But I don't see him much troubling a prime Jones.
I do think that Jones's chin often gets unfairly maligned in hypothetical match ups (eg 'X would KO glass jawed Roy into next week!'). But there is great nuance here. The fact is he was 34 when he got clocked by Tarver - old for a speed and reflexes fighter. Before then he'd never shown any particular vulnerability. Sure he didn't get hit much, but I still saw him take solid whacks in his career - even up at heavyweight vs John Ruiz. It's only when he was mid 30s onwards when the problems started - and frequently. I just don't think the evidence is borne out in the same way for - or anywhere near - his prime years. He fought on long enough to essentially have two careers ... one good, one bad. I don't hold much of the bad against him, considering he clearly was not the same fighter.

 

I’d favor Jones most of the time. He did beat him when they were closest to prime. I truly believe jones didn’t handle losing the weight well. He lost something.

 

This doesn’t make sense at all.

Tarver fought Roy 3 times, where he could only knock him out once.

In their first fight, Roy was depleted. He was completely exhausted. He was backing himself on to the ropes. And in the final 3 rounds, he was running on fumes, even though the fight hadn’t been fought at a fast pace. Yet Tarver couldn’t even beat him, let alone knock him out.

The rematch saw Roy take a perfectly timed shot. It was a great knockout.

Then look at their 3rd fight. Roy was coming off of back to back knockout defeats and over a year of inactivity. So he was there for the taking. Yet Tarver couldn’t knock him out.

So again, he knocked him out once in 3 fights.

Yet we’re talking here about a much fresher and sharper version of Roy.

Not a depleted post HW version.

Not a version who’d been knocked out twice.

The version who made a very good fighter like Reggie, look like he was a nobody.

So how on earth could you have given Tarver 60 wins out of 100?

It doesn’t make sense.

 

He reduced it from the reality based number of 66.67/100 to an even 60 out of 100. You also skipped the part where Jones was sleeping standing up in the third fight.

Seems a lot more rational the guys who think someone who was floored by Del Valle and went tit for tat with Griffin and Harding (before the arm injury) would easily beat a guy who won 2 out of 3 in real life.

 

I understand the maths, genius.

Now try and understand that there’s a world of difference between the Reggie Johnson version of Roy Jones, to the ones who Tarver fought.

If Tarver could barely beat a depleted version of Roy Jones, plus a version coming off of back to back knockout losses and a year out, then there’s no way on earth that Tarver could have been favoured that big over a pre-HW version of Roy.

Regarding Del Valle, we’ve covered this before. I’ve already told you that although he caught him with a great shot, Roy’s back foot slipped beneath him fast, due to the canvas being wet. Also, Roy won almost every round, where he landed some great body shots.

Del Valle knocking him down, does not equate to Tarver having a 60% chance of beating the Reggie Johnson version of Roy.

I’m not sure why you’ve mentioned Griffin, as that was obviously a completely different stylistic match up. However, if you’re going to mention that fight, you can also note that he blitzed him in under 3 mins in their rematch. Because that’s what a mid to late 90’s version of Roy was capable of.

Tarver was a very good fighter. And he would always have been a threat to Roy. But again, one punch is one punch. Hasim Rahman knocked out Lennox with a great punch. Yes, it’s possible that Tarver could have landed that. But the other two fights give you a lot more evidence to look at.

The fact is: Roy was there for the taking in the two fights that Tarver didn’t take him out. So if he couldn’t take him out in those fights, again, there’s no way that there’d have been a high percentage of him doing it against the version of Roy who’d toyed with Reggie.

I’ve never said that Roy would have beaten him easily.

But giving Tarver 60 wins over a prime Roy is an illogical opinion.

 

I agree with your take. And, as an aside which I mentioned earlier, I find it increasingly tiresome that Jones on this forum often gets dismissed as 'glass jawed ' or 'chinny ' with no acknowledgement that the KOs only started happening when he was an old fighter, clearly not the same force. People don't hold Ali or Tysons later losses against him in the same way - ie that it revea!s something about their early careers despite there being no real evidence of it. I think the fact that he carried on for sooo long clouds people's judgement.

 

Legend has it that Tarver only had a chance against Jones because he was ALSO from Florida. It's like having The Shine.

 

I agree. I am firmly in the camp RJJ hit the wall quickly.

 

Tarver was literally the best puncher he ever fought.

 

got any excuses roy?

 

Tarver wasn't at his own best for the 3rd fight either. He never again showed the same strength & power under 175 as he did for his KOs of RJJ & Harding.

 

100-1 & I’m not being facetious.