What version of Ali can Joe Joyce beat

Was Shavers not close to his prime vs Stallings ? he'd recently KO'ed Jimmy Ellis and then after fought to a draw against an improved version Jimmy Young in a rematch who would go on his next fight to school Ron Lyle.

Yes i am saying Joyce didn't fully recover after the brutal losses to Zhang and there's many examples of it throughout history of fighters not being the same after their first loss.

Not that i'm saying Joyce was ever some H2H god and i have criticised him in the past for being overrated on this forum. But the Joyce who destroyed Parker was not the same fighter who fought Chisora and i will stand by that comment.

Joyce had less fights than Dubois it was considered close to a 50/50 match up and wins can look significantly better with hindsight. For example Holmes beating Weaver who had virtually no resume prior to the Holmes fight and then he become a force in the division a few years later.

Norton, Ellis, are historically better names than Dubois, Parker, of course but Shavers also beat them at the tail end of their career.

Ellis went 2-6 after the Shavers loss and retired just 2 years later.

Norton had one last great performance vs Holmes then i think his career steadily declined after that and agaib he was right at the tail end of his career. KO'ed in 1 by Shavers, Cooney, and was virtually TKO'ed by journeyman Scott LeDoux.

Alot of notable fighters have struggled vs Chisora though apart from Haye, Fury, pretty much everyone who's stepped into the ring with Chisora has had a hard nights work including Usyk.

Parker also beat Chisora very convincingly in their 2nd fight knocking him down multiple times and winning a wide UD.

As for Shavers victories the Young win i don't hold in very high regard Young had only had like 10 professional fights. And he had been fighting 6 and 8 rounders he was green as hell and well out of his depth against Shavers who had over 45 fights at the time.

It is proof because it was common trait for Ali during this period where he would go long periods not doing alot in fights. I can think of one glaring example in the 3rd Norton fight i can't remember the exact round but Ali fought the entire round sat on the ropes and threw 0 punches.

The Shavers, Lyle, Spinks 1, fights are also glaring examples of Ali not doing alot in fights for long periods in the fights.

Ali slept walk vs Lyle for 10 rounds.

Ali did very little vs Shavers for 9 rounds who is just as limited as Joyce with a far poorer workrate.

Ali allowed himself to get wailed away on the ropes vs Spinks for 14 rounds.

If Shavers, Evangelista, Spinks, can go a combined 60 rounds vs Ali in very competitive fights then Joyce can certainly equal their performances and possibly do better.

 

Joyce had a late start as a boxer and currently has less than 20 fights. His wear and tear is not the same as boxers from the 70's who would've had about 40-50 fights at his age.

You guys are acting as if the losses to Zhang equate to basically an entire long rugged career. It's truly baffling. No one is saying 2 back to back KO losses won't have any effect on a fighter's shelf life or performance, but I see no evidence Joyce is some sort of shot fighter either. I was expecting him to beat Chisora but at the same time, the loss wasn't really shocking. I wasn't sold on the guy at all. I think the problem is, like Adam Kownacki, people bought into the hype and when Joyce started losing there came a bunch of excuses.

 

Shavers documents in his biography that he started reaching his peak around 75. That's when he was able to truly focus on boxing full time, was able to get full training camps, proper equipment, get plenty of food and rest, and had much better management. Gone were the days where his only focus was to simply charge in and blast guys out in 1-3 rounds, he began to pace himself better. Ironically, it was Ali who also helped Shavers during this process letting him use his gym. The Henry Clark wins got him on people's radar as he displayed improved timing and stamina with less wild caveman swings and the Williams fight he showed uncharacteristically high endurance and grit.

So all in all, his best years as a fighter were 75-79. During these years, he went 13-4 (12 KOs). Iirc, at least 2 opponents he KOd were in the top 10, and he pushed 2 ATGs in Ali and Holmes to their absolute limits in 2 grueling matches. That's a pretty good peak run for a limited slugger lacking in speed and ring IQ in a very rough era.

See my reply to Melankomas. Shavers had been through worse lol and still had a decent career having been KOd by Lyle, Quarry, and a completely nobody journeyman in Ron Stander after breaking his hand.

No, Joyce doesn't get a resume boost for beating a green Dubois anymore than Floyd can pretend he beat the current much more skilled version of Canelo. That's not how that works.

Yes Shavers best KOs were against men past their absolute best, so I guess it cancels out. Shavers KOd 3 veterans, Joyce KOd a green rookie and a mid level contender. Norton was ranked #1 however. Nothing in the Holmes fight suggested he became shot overnight, so it was a great win. Norton hadn't been KOd in 5 years and had won 11 fights with only 2 close decision losses before Shavers felled him.

Fury did not struggle with Chisora, he clearly won all 3 fights. Last 2 weren't even competitive.

Vitali was an old man with a messed up arm and still dominated winning almost every round.

How does Parker knocking Chisora down and winning convincingly the second time help your argument that most people had a hard night's work fighting Chisora...?

Haye beat the breaks off of him and made it look easy. Whyte was competitive the first time because he's a dumbass who willingly had a barroom brawl with the inferior opponent. Entertaining, sure, but it made the fight much harder. Whyte made it clear Chisora wasn't on his level in the rematch.

Chisora is a crowd please and a hard worker who gave his fans their money's worth, but he was not truly an elite fighter. Even in his prime, at best he was a B- level guy.

I never brought up the Young fight as one of Shavers best wins.

I already said if Ali fought the way he did against Spinx the first time, he'd lose to Joyce. I suspect Ali didn't try on purpose to motivate himself to try to win a 3rd title and get people excited again, but that's just a theory.

When Ali needed to step things up, he stepped things up. He wasn't worried about those guys because they weren't on his level and he had no reason to step out of first gear.

This is assuming Joyce is better than the Shavers or Spinx who fought Ali, and as I said that's pretty debatable.

 

@Glass City Cobra i had to quote you like this because it's too many characters.

I don't see any evidence regarding eye test that Shavers suddenly improved significantly he still lost to Lyle and got beaten 12-0 by Holmes during those years you mentioned. Yes he beat Norton but Norton froze against punchers and that was stylistically a very favourable match up for Shavers also Norton was declining as a fighter IMO. The Ali fight flatters Shavers because Ali had declined so much at that point in his career and let's be real if Ali was at his peak he wouldn't lose a single round to Shavers.

I mean i guess Shavers did pace himself a bit more in some fights but i don't think that necessarily helped him in regards to getting big wins.

Shavers was completely gassed vs Williams for example and won that fight on sheer heart/determination.

But you're comparing one example every fighter is different and losses can have different impacts on each individual. Joyce had a late start to boxing and was already close to 40 years old when he suffered two brutal stoppages against Zhang.

Joyce was not the same fighter he was when he destroyed Parker IMO.

Actually it does work wins can age well and enhance a resume Joyce also had less professional fights than Dubois which is a vital bit of context you're leaving out. It's not like Dubois was thrown to the wolves against a vastly more experienced professional fighter like Young against Shavers in their 1st meeting.

"Joyce KO'ed a green rookie"

But yet again you're leaving out the context that Joyce had less professional fights than Dubois and it was considered a 50/50 fight so it was a good win.

My view of Norton is he had one last great effort vs Holmes and then after that he started to decline as a fighter. Although to be fair Shavers is a bad stylistic match up for Norton regardless and i wouldn't bet on a prime Norton surviving against Shavers either quite honestly.

Glass no disrespect but you misread what i said go back and read what i said "Apart from Haye, Fury," meaning Fury did not struggle against Chisora which is what i said.

Vitali did not dominate at all it was a rough night for Vitali and i gave Chisora 4 rounds it was arguably one of Vitali's toughest fights of his career. Very few fighters won rounds off of Vitali outside of Lewis, Byrd, so you could argue it was Vitali's 3rd or 4th toughest fight of his career depending on how you rank the Sanders fight.

Vitali clearly won the fight on points but it was certainly not easy at all.

Because they did ? a majority had Parker losing the 1st fight to Chisora.

Parker was able to adjust in the rematch and do better but that doesn't mean in most of Chisora's losses he didn't give his opponents tough fights.

Let's review some of Chisora's notable losses....

Split decision loss to Heleinus = Most people consider it a robbery and had Chisora clearly winning.

Split decision loss to Pulev = Alot people felt Chisora was very unlucky to lose this decision.

Split decision loss to Whyte = FOTY candidate very close fight that i would say on average more fans felt Chisora won the decision.

KO loss to Whyte 11th round = Chisora was ahead on the judges scorecards at the time of the stoppage.

Decision loss to Usyk = One of Usyk's toughest fights of his career.

Split decision loss to Parker = Majority had Chisora winning.

So take away the 3 losses to Fury and 5 of Chisora's losses have been split decisions or majority decisions, the other 2 losses were very spirited efforts against Usyk, Vitali. Another loss to Whyte via KO late in which Chisora lead of the judges scorecards.

Hence what i said earlier "Chisora gives most of his opponents tough nights" is true.

I've already stated Haye didn't have issues vs Chisora ?

How did Whyte make it clear Chisora wasn't on his level in the rematch ? 2 judges had Chisora ahead on points going into the 11th round. Whyte scored with a left hook out of nowhere and he needed it as he was real danger of losing on points.

Chisora and Whyte fought 23 very competitive rounds and they were at a very similar level.

But Ali was like that in pretty much all of his notable fights during that period he'd go long periods of not doing much of anything. And some of the controversial decisions he won during that period were due to how big of a name he was so he got the benefit of the doubt.

I was not impressed with Ali's form during that period and i see him as a very beatable fighter.

Would i make Joyce a favourite over Ali ? i wouldn't go that far no but i could definitely see Joyce outpointing a lackluster Ali at some point during 1976-1981.

Well i would say Joyce has far better stamina, chin, than Shavers hence if Ali fights in a similar manner to Shavers, Lyle, in which he basically sleep walks through the first 9 or 10 rounds. He's going to be behind on points based on the sheer effort of Joyce. Then Ali would have to step it up late on whilst probably being quite a few rounds behind and i don't think he could stop Joyce hence i see that as a bit of problem.

I think it all depends on how many rounds this mythical fight is set for if it's 15 rounds then Ali could maybe have a slow start and comeback late on and win a decision because he has enough rounds to work with.

 

Fair points DP and certainly not dismissed out of hand.

I’ll just respond/add the following: -

Ali was moving around mid 220s throughout 1975.

The examples I gave are analagous to the isolation of the Young fight - which was the point.

Of course those early 70s examples contrasted more heavily to Ali’s substantive condition and potentials otherwise as at the time but the Young fight in Apr 76 did represent Ali in his worst shape and focus in and around 1976.

Thereafter, Ali worked his weight down for the Dunn fight shortly thereafter and came in around the same weight for Norton in Sept. 1976 - about 221 lbs - Ali taking Norton far more seriously than he took Young.

The point re the Lyle fight is that Ali was expressly understated during periods of the fight but he still did what he needed to do against Lyle - the very opponent at hand - to win the fight.

Ali’s method for winning wouldn’t necessarily be transposed exactly from the Lyle fight into a match vs Joyce.

It’s sort of like saying Ali’s rope a dope in Zaire wouldn’t have worked against X, Y and Z fighters therefore X, Y and Z would’ve had a good chance of beating that version of Ali - BUT without reasonably calculating that, IF that was the case, Ali wouldn’t have used that rope a dope strategy against said fighters.

The rope a dope was tailored to the opponent at hand, Foreman, and it totally worked in that specific instance despite the majority believing that Ali was too far past even as earlier as 1974.

Also, at least as per the judges scorecard (which are arguable as I’ve acknowledged), as at the time of the stoppage, Lyle wasn’t necessarily running away with the fight to the extent that many would have it. Ultimately, Ali’s victory over Lyle was definitive and impressive.

I can only say and repeat from my POV, that Ali only lost to Norton in 1976, and I’ll add without bias, he lost clearly that fight but that same Norton, though 2 years older, gave hell to a prime/near prime Larry Holmes.

Therefore, barring the Norton fight, Ali wasn’t so beatable and via means pretty or not, he actually knew how to ultimately beat the other guys he did engage - and any difficulties he did encounter have to measured relative to the competition - Young, Norton and Shavers, the best in the division.

Would the best version of Joyce necessarily be more effective than the aforementioned 3 fighters per their preceding records and as they presented in their actual fights against Ali?

For one, Young, had already beaten Shavers, Lyle X 2 and Foreman. He would also go on to a tight, full route fight vs Norton in 1977. Love him or hate. Young was on a hot run and Ali faced the peak version of Young who really didn’t do enough to seize the title - even against an ill prepared and ill focused Ali.

In the frame of consistency thru 15 rounds, Shavers put in a PB performance against Ali imo - as many challengers often do with the title up for grabs.

For the Ali fight, Earnie was in great shape, paced himself beautifully and periodically landed bombs thru 15 rounds. Still, Ali had Shavers very close to being stopped in the 15th round.

Two years after his fight vs Ali, Shavers flattened the same Norton who both Ali and Holmes struggled with. Suffice to say, Ali was mixing with the best of the division.

Re Dubois. Sure, I wasn’t trying to throw shade on Daniel but that context is still relevant and upholds my point, but for the eye injury, which led Daniel to surrender, Dubois was leading on 2 of the 3 judges cards.

I will add though that Dubois did later meekly surrender to Usyk when the going got that little but tougher and he appears to be more steely resolved now - but true, he had more reason to surrender vs Joyce then he did vs Usyk.

Just my interpretation but I thought you were implying that Joyce would likely beat Ali during the specified period. My bad.

Sure, he’d have a chance like many other fighters but how much of a chance is the crux of the question.

Ali was clearly on the slide, no argument there, but I don’t think Joyce was the man to take sufficient advantage of same at least up until and including the Shavers fight.

And again, in terms of irreparable damage and accelerated decline, the Shavers fight took more out of Ali than any given one of his fights in the last few preceding years.

Good debate DP and I’m enjoying it but not sure if I can add too much more.

 

Yeah nothing else to add I think I've exhausted this conversation honestly with both you and @Glass City Cobra

I don't think either of us are a million miles away we just have a different perspective on certain things.

But yeah just to finally add I don't make Joyce a favourite over Ali but i do think Ali was very beatable between 1976-1981 so if Joyce were to win the earliest I could see it happening is 1976 but certainly not before that.

 

I feel any version of Ali that lost his mobility and was not able to dictate the terms of engagement would be in deep trouble. Joyce is as slow as molasses but Ali is not going to dent that chin and Joyce never gets tired. If JJ can consistently force Ali to engage he will eventually wear him out.

Any version of ALi that can stay out of Joyce's wheelhouse for most of the round will probably make him look foolish and win wide on points.

 

The version that fought Holmes and Berbick.

Every other version of Ali makes Joyce look like a bum.

 

I'm not saying Joyce "can't" win against 76-81 Ali, only that the notion he should be favored is rubbish. Glad we agree Ali is the favorite but not by a huge margin. Ali was nowhere near invincible during this time period, we just disagree on how vulnerable he'd be against Joyce.

I don't hold the Zhang losses against him since anything can happen when two hard punching behemoths slug it out, but the Chisora loss is just too damning for me. Even at his best Chisora was never elite and B level at best, let alone the washed old Chisora who taught Joyce a lesson. Make whatever excuses you want about how much the Zhang fights took out of Joyce, I simply can't forgive that loss and that tells me what level he truly is.

We also both agree if Ali is lazy, out of shape, or just goes through the motions not throwing enough and covering up like he did against Lyle or Spinx 1, then sure Joyce is a live underdog who could pull it off. I just disagree that Joyce could win if Ali is even 70% motivated so let's just leave it there.